As long as my 2 Xbox One X's preorders are fulfilled, I'm good. I don't care how it sells - I'll be happy with my units regardless.

Team Xbox all the way!!!

I don't think they'll ever really regain the lead, the longer they are behind the harder it gets.

Perhaps I misused the term hardcore, I meant the core, existing market. It won't bring in new customers, only provides an alternative to the existing active multiplayer crowd. It's not a system seller imo.

Yeah, the PS2 was not expensive at all, it launched at $299 and was cut to $199 very quickly. That entire gen was shockingly cheap when compared to the two that have followed. 

Why was he moderated for this?  Sounds like commentary on a couple of previous posts.  The snowflake stuff isn't very nice, but moderation worthy?  Really?

Just like the Xbone S, X will be very competitive against PS4 for some time in the US, winning many NPDs, but then ultimately lose momentum. I predict by summer 2018 things will return to normal in the US: a God of War here, a price cut there, PS4 back on top. Worldwide, nothing will change.

Also people expecting PUBG to be a system seller are gonna be disappointed.

I see the X1X helping overall very little, but selling to the most hardcore Xbox fans who already own an X1 (who probably already bought X1 w/Kinect at $500 on launch, and then X1S lol).

PUBG is .. probably not a big factor to be honest. The sooner they release it, the better chance of any impact. If it was already out on Xbox it would get some traction. But it's about to be the usual fall rush of mega IPs, already starting with Destiny 2, and the PUBG community is already really well entrenched on PC, where a game like PUBG can thrive decently. It should be a $20-$30 game. There is very little content, it's super janky, it looks like a 2008-era game in almost every aspect other than player count, and that's being VERY generous. I mean, it's a pretty hideous game to look at. There's also the matter of the thing even running on consoles in a respectable way. It's telling we still don't really have console footage to go on, it's notable for being pretty CPU heavy, and runs like trash even on pretty pricey PCs with good CPUs. With low level CPUs it's just an abomination.

https://www.tweaktown.com/articles/8189/playerunknowns-battlegrounds-benchmarked-cpu-gpu-war/index.html

If it comes out rushed at 30fps with drops on X1X, and is virtually unplayable on stock X1/X1S, that will pretty much seal the game on console. It certainly won't run any better on PS4/PS4P.

Thing with PUBG is that by the time it's out many companies will have realized that their games can effectively work as "PUBG clone" already, meaning that when it comes out it just look like a generic version of a multiplayer mode you can already play elsewhere.
I don't think it will do badly, but the reasons for its success seem uniquely tied to the PC gaming landscape.

As per XBox... it'll probably continue to have mediocre sales everywhere, maybe rising to "not awful" in the US.
As I've said, the aggressive marketing push for the X has sunk sales for the S.

Pubg is still in beta.
It's 20$
It's on a platform with an install base to rival the best console.
It is a very complicated game in terms of control. There are 14 or 15 different inputs.
It isn't nearly casual enough for console.
You're talking about looting for 15+ minutes with no action just to die from a split second shot.
There is virtually no chat.
Lag is an extremely significant factor

Compare this to what shooters are actually popular on consoles.

Just wanted to add that I have like 200 hours in pubg. I love that game. But it would need to be very different to survive the console environment.

Setup needs to be way shorter.
Death less penalized.
Less mechanics, streamlined, simplified.

The problem is mainly that there is so much setup that goes into the game...waiting for match, spot to land, getting items, fighting early etc...and so much camping (since death basically voids your investment), that given the amount of time invested to play, it comes down very precise control and reaction speed.
This is something a console cannot provide without a mouse and keyboard.