What will be interesting is seeing if Nintendo can beat the 10 million projection. The 3DS will likely end around 6 million, but the Switch has the potential to go much higher than 10 million if they can just produce enough. The 3DS shipped 13.53 million in its first fiscal year, but it was only at 0.71 million as of Q1, while the Switch is at 1.96 million.

Sony on a 4 year win streak WW. very nice!

I forgot to mention the projections are all fiscal year, so 6 million 3ds's by march 2018, 10 million switch's by march 2018, and 18 million PS4's by then.

Personally I don't see the Switch surpassing the 10 million mark, at least not that much. I see it selling a little worse or better than 10 million(from April1st to March 30th 2018). I think it will sell 7.26 or so million units by December, but after that the Switch will just be playing ketchup, where all the sales mainly go from people who couldn't buy a switch with mario by the holidays. I say this even when taking into consideration that a Yoshi or a Kirby might launch early 2018. The more Switch units sell, the more Nintendo need to give people a reason to get up and buy a console. After Mario there isn't an immediate solution for a console seller, so they're really going to just be selling to the people who don't have a Switch yet. Especially since Switch sold 2 million from April 1st to June 30th, that means that an extra million is likely for a 3 month period, but not much else. The PS4 without supply constraints sold 3.3 million in that timeframe. It is hard to speculate since I don't know much about how much Splatoon 2 will penetrate the US and UK markets in terms of console sales. 

Wait, so you think that the Switch will enter 2018 with less momentum than it had in 2017?

How is that less momentum? That's an extra million sales in the same time period. 

Oh, you meant an extra million on top of the 2 million. Okay, I misread that.

Still, 7.26 million at the end of December seems strange... I mean, looking at Q1, 1.96 million is the bare minimum they'll be shipping in a quarter, since they've already promised increased shipments starting in July. But even without any increase in shipments, the Switch would still reach 5.88 million for those three quarters. An additional 1.38 million is just a 70% increase from Q2 to the holiday quarter, even though the holiday quarter is usually 50% of an entire fiscal year's shipments. Do you think Nintendo is currently shipping units at nearly the same pace as they manufacture them? I hope their production capacity isn't that low.

I meant 7.26 million at the end of December as in that's how much they'll sell the fiscal year. So from April to December they'd sell 7.26 million, meaning that they'll top the year off at 10 million sales. I guess it could sell over 10 million in a fiscal year, because thinking about it if they're able to ship 2 million Switch's in April through June, they will probably do something close to that from July to September, and then push a lot of units in the last 3 months of the year. But  then what would you suspect their supply will be for through October to December? Now that I think about it though, I definitely see where you're coming from. I guess I was looking from the perspective of someone who feels like 10 million in a year is a lot(especially when you consider adding an extra month would make sales 12.74 million). I kind of suspected it would do a bit higher than that, but I definitely think October - December will have to be stocked much more than usual, particularly Novemember and December. And since Nintendo shipped  2 million switchs from April through June, then July through September should be about the same. So they'd already be at about 4 million before Holiday. Good point.

The WSJ report about the Nintendo/Apple battle for manufacturing parts said the shortage of the NAND memory chip would be year long. So who knows how much of an effect that will be.

Nintendo will win this year if it can make enough Switch's. but it probably won't be able to make enough due to parts shortage so Sony should win this fiscal year, but the one starting next spring I would expect Nintendo to win as I think Switch and ps4 will sell about the same amount but 3DS should still be selling maybe close to 5 million on top of Switch's numbers. And after that year ps4 will be past its peak while Switch will still be rising, though 3DS sales will disappear but Switch rising to peak vs ps4 past peak = Nintendo wins for a few years in a row.

shocked at PS1 sales after PS2 came out. I mean it had full BC and pretty low starting price yet PS1 still sold so many millions.