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Forums - Nintendo - Failed Switch predictions of analysts

Ya, it's threads like these which made me stop making predictions lol. If you're right, no one cares. If you're wrong, then people will bring up how wrong you are for months and months. Once I made a bad prediction in a middle of a thread, and something like 10 months later some random person called me out and told me how much of an idiot I was....like seriously?



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Of all things in the world to underestimate how on Earth could Nintendo possibly be one of them?



Funny all the passes being handed out and qualifications people are making for these terrible predictions.

OP, there needs to be more up there. I'm sure there can be.



Wyrdness said:
Zkuq said:

I didn't expect you to have spread your links across multiple posts. I looked up one post and had no reason to assume there would be more. Also, I didn't talk anything about labeling every link individually. I gave an example of a horrible label that gave me no idea about what to expect.

This thread seems to originally be more about ridiculing predictions than properly discussing them, and that's how I'm going to treat links labeled with 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.' unless given a reason to treat them otherwise. Also, my main point wasn't even about there not having been such bad predictions. It was just a side remark because I hadn't seen any such low predictions myself, which I took as a sign of there not having been many such predictions. I was sure there must have been such predictions but not having seen any, I assumed they would be relatively rare. They still don't seem common to me.

Then you must have been away from VGC for a long time because such silly predictions weren't hard to find even after launch some people still held out on such predictions it's only now that the realization is starting to kick in for them.

The original post had analyst predictions that were just as bad as those predictions are Wii U range numbers for 12 months so ofcourse they're going to get stick as well from, those predictions are in the same boat as the people in the links.

Uh, nope. I honestly didn't see them. Or maybe I did see some, but not enough to remember seeing any. Maybe I've just learned to filter the ridiculous stuff without paying attention. It seems you do have a point about analyst numbers though. Personally I don't consider it a problem since short-term success and long-term success are two difference things (that probably correlate somewhat) and Switch's long-term success is still unproven, but yeah, it seems they are actually pretty low for the first year. Still, as short-term predictions, I don't think they're that unreasonable. Obviously they're incorrect, but like I've said, there was also a lot of negativity regarding Switch (with the price being a major point).



VGPolyglot said:
Barkley said:

TBH straight after Nintendo's January presentation I'd give people a free pass for reactionary posts.

That presentation was awful.

I was disappointed with it myself

I thought it was ok. The price was within what some expected and the release date was sooner than anyone expected. The overall online features outside of the online gaming itself are still in question as Nintendo has only begun releasing the app but hasn't mentioned the potential virtual console or deals that can be made once paid and all. We'll just have to wait and see. Still playing online is pretty fun with Splatoon 2 and ARMS The joy cons themselves have potential if utilized. Switch being region free was news. The amount of options of playing was interesting due to the hybrid concept. The trailers ranged from ok to great. While I'll admit ARMS didn't necessarily have a great first impression, I'm glad it showed it was more than flinging punches as previews, later trailers, and reviews showed it was more than Wii Boxing 2. 1-2 Switch was weird but not really terrible and I've seen worse trailers. It sucks FE Warriors was only a teaser at the time. Xenoblade 2 was great. Odyssey was amazing. Zelda was awe inspiring. I think what people didn't like were the news after the presentation such as the online features once paid (or that it was paid at all), the prices for the controllers and other accessories, and the few launch day titles (which was like about 15 if you include the Japan only titles).



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Zkuq said:
Wyrdness said:

When you replied the first time I told you I'd linked the threads from there on out you have the knowledge of the links I'm not going to hold your hand and label every link just in case you turn up in a thread that type of thinking is even more daft on your part tbh as I said if you don't read through the thread it's not really my problem, numerous people have even quoted both set of links.

What are you meant to think of links? Well take a guess you're in a topic about predictions of analysts so what do you think the links were going to contain in that post topics on how to prepare pasta bake, you're going on about how in hind sight blah blah but then those topic highlight that even before hindsight some predictions were just silly even more highlighted that at first you didn't think anyone would even make such predictions.

I didn't expect you to have spread your links across multiple posts. I looked up one post and had no reason to assume there would be more. Also, I didn't talk anything about labeling every link individually. I gave an example of a horrible label that gave me no idea about what to expect.

This thread seems to originally be more about ridiculing predictions than properly discussing them, and that's how I'm going to treat links labeled with 'I think the threads here were more hilarious tbh.' unless given a reason to treat them otherwise. Also, my main point wasn't even about there not having been such bad predictions. It was just a side remark because I hadn't seen any such low predictions myself, which I took as a sign of there not having been many such predictions. I was sure there must have been such predictions but not having seen any, I assumed they would be relatively rare. They still don't seem common to me.

Miyamotoo said:

Long story in short, my last paragraph proves my point, all things that I mentioned kill any possible concerns that Switch will fail. All those concerns of some people were very shallow, while in same time they ignore or they didnt were aware of crucial positive things because Switch will be success. It was very obvious that Switch will sell more than 4-5m in 1st year, but this "analysts" failed to see that.

Price is one of the biggest factors in any product's success, so I don't think you can dismiss problems with it that easily. You would have to argue why the positive things trump the price instead of simply stating they do. The other problems probably wouldn't be big enough on their own, but stuff can add up, especially if there's bigger problems in combination. Also, saying the analysts ignored or weren't aware of the positives seems ignorant in itself, because even if you're aware of those things, it can still be difficult to see whether the positives or the negatives will prevail. How do you know the price is not too high compared to the positives, for example? A hunch, maybe?

I thought a good bit about the situation myself, trying to assess both the positives and the negatives, and I can't really say I knew which ones would prevail because there were both strong positives and strong negatives. I'd say that without access to more data or other knowledge to make reliable judgement about the situation, you can at best have a good hunch about how things are going. Maybe your instincts are good and it's all obvious to you so you can make correct predictions, but I bet that's not the case for most people.

Agree, but Switch price isn't high, isnt exactly most affordable but isn't exactly expensive, sales proves that. Those analyst form OP failed miserable, so they definitely ignored or weren't aware of the positives of Switch. For the record, all other analysts are far more positive about Switch. How I didnt know that price isnt to high!? Easy, Switch is real handheld and real home console in one, offers local multiplayer on the go, and offers two controllers for local multiplayer out of box, $299 inst too much for such a device, and like I wrote, sales proves that.

I myself didnt saw one single bigger negativity about Switch that could effect sales, everything was good and actually totally opposite to Wii U, Switch is so much similar to Wii, great concept, great launch games, and great branding and marketing, only difference is that Wii had very affordable price point, but luckily Switch doesn't have high price point either.



Also, don't lump faux-Nintendo fans in with the real deal. Anyone who claims to be a Nintendo fan and says something like "Gamecube was the best Nintendo console ever" or "Nintendo hasn't been good since Gamecube" or "Why can't Nintendo make something like Gamecube again" are more or less confused Playstation fans who think they're Nintendo fans. Essentially what they want is a gimped Playstation 4 in the same way the Gamecube was a gimped PS2 (childish design, weird controller which didn't support certain game genres, micro-dvds instead of the real deal; it was a PS2 Jr.), rather than a console that is uniquely Nintendo, and vastly different from the competition, particularly the NES, Gameboy, DS, Wii, and Switch.

In other words, those who were excited for the Switch, that's us, the Nintendo fans; the ones who love Nintendo and they're philosophy. Those who were disappointed because it wasn't a gimped PS4 clone, they're Playstation fans who want a playstation-like console, they like Sony's philosophy, hate Nintendo's philosophy - but ironically dislike the Sony label and love the Nintendo label. They're shallow in that regards.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Miyamotoo said:

Agree, but Switch price isn't high, isnt exactly most affordable but isn't exactly expensive, sales proves that. Those analyst form OP failed miserable, so they definitely ignored or weren't aware of the positives of Switch. For the record, all other analysts are far more positive about Switch. How I didnt know that price isnt to high!? Easy, Switch is real handheld and real home console in one, offers local multiplayer on the go, and offers two controllers for local multiplayer out of box, $299 inst too much for such a device, and like I wrote, sales proves that.

I myself didnt saw one single bigger negativity about Switch that could effect sales, everything was good and actually totally opposite to Wii U, Switch is so much similar to Wii, great concept, great launch games, and great branding and marketing, only difference is that Wii had very affordable price point, but luckily Switch doesn't have high price point either.

At this point, it seems we're not even on the same page, so it's best if we leave it here.