Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: 1st party Switch sales

LipeJJ said:
specialk said:

 

Y'all are crazy.

For starters, I'm expecting 3m first month.

Were aren't enough Switches around for this first month number.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Splatoon 2 deserves its own thread I think.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Mnementh said:
LipeJJ said:

For starters, I'm expecting 3m first month.

Were aren't enough Switches around for this first month number.

Why not? Switch is at least at 5m by now, and this will greatly increase once Splatoon 2 launches. After it's 1 month on the market, I bet Switch will be around 6m, so 3m first month (4 weeks) should represent a 50% attach rate. MK8Deluxe sold around 2m first month according to VGC, on a lower install base while at that, so while 3m is not garanteed for Splatoon, it's not that hard either. 



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Not really a bold prediction imo, the least likely is Pokken, but that manged it on WiiU so I have no reason to suspect it'll sell less then a million on Switch.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barely worth a prediction, that's almost guaranteed to happen (unless you mean 1m within 2017, which would be unlikely because of Xenoblade's launch window). But well, if we're doing lifetime predictions now here's mine.

1-2 Switch: 2.0m
Breath of the Wild: 9.5m (+1.5m on Wii U)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 14m
ARMS: 2.5m
Splatoon 2: 11m
Mario+Rabbids Kingdom Battle: 3.5m
Pokken Tournament DX: 1.5m
Super Mario Odyssey: 12m
Fire Emblem Warriors: 1.3m
Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 1.4m



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It appears as though my prediction has come true, the only one we dont know about is Fire Emblem Warriors which is over 1 million with New 3DS sales included.

I cant imagine N3DS version making up much of that so NSW version will most likely reach it on its own.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
It appears as though my prediction has come true, the only one we dont know about is Fire Emblem Warriors which is over 1 million with New 3DS sales included.

I cant imagine N3DS version making up much of that so NSW version will most likely reach it on its own.

My guess is ~75% for Switch version and the rest for 3DS.



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zorg1000 said:
It appears as though my prediction has come true, the only one we dont know about is Fire Emblem Warriors which is over 1 million with New 3DS sales included.

I cant imagine N3DS version making up much of that so NSW version will most likely reach it on its own.

Good job!  I expect that Fire Emblem Warriors will also get over 1m in due time.