You look at the Blu Ray sale, some titles have 20%, some 1%...  Obviously A is not hard as they haven't been convinced for Blu Ray yet...  That said, Blu Ray has about 4 more years to do that...   B. This is moot without A, and A has not been established yet.  If via PC or whatever consumers pick something new, it doesn't matter about Blu Ray if no one buys it and sticks with DVD and/or the new thing.  C. If 3D TVs technology becomes standard by then, you will need that much space.  The whole point of marketing is to convince people to get things they don't think they need, so saying that it is not needed is plain wrong.  The question is more of is can it be cost effective...  IE: If it costs the same as Blu Ray, then who needs Blu Ray...  if it costs 10 times as much, then most consumers will not be interested except for their PCs, etc...

Lol keep reaching... maybe you'll gra a star someday.

Of course some have 1%... why the fuck would anyone in their right mind purchase something like Its a Wonderful Life... a black and white film on blu-ray. lol get out of here if all you are gonna do is spout nonsense.

That's actually my point.  Blu Ray will really have until 2014, because holographic storage will likely be too expensive in 2012.  Blu Ray might havea significant install base, but it might not.  If Blu Ray doesn't, then I think people will be ready for something significantly better than Blu Ray.  We are talking an order of magnitude better than Blu Ray.  Blu Ray is not a whole order of magnitude better than DVD.

I'll admit there is a good chance that Blu Ray will reach 50% market share, and if it does, it will be difficult for a new format.  However, if DVD still has 50% market share by 2014, I think Blu Ray could be pinched into being a niche in-between technology.

LOL!  I was using Transformers as my example for 1%.  I didn't even know you could get It's a Wonderful Life on Blu Ray.

Oh you can. and LOL @ transformers... a movie that was HD exclusive to HD-DVD as an example... again.. keep reaching.

I don't care what it was.  The fact is it's available on both DVD and Blu Ray now, and it's selling better on DVD.  Time will tell, and and 3 years is a long time.  Keep hoping Blu Ray market share picks up.  Keep reaching.

To the recent defensiveness by certain forum members.

I dont think the nay sayers are claiming Blu Ray will fail. I certainly dont think that will happen.

I just think that displacing DVD worldwide is going to be a very long battle that ultimately may not be won.

There is no need to swear or become openly aggressive to other posters just because they want to put forward a counterpoint.

What's bizarre to say the least is that some nay sayers claim BD won't displace DVD because it will be surpassed by a not even fully defined yet newer and better format. But won't this new format have an even harder time than BD, as it will have to start from zero, like any other new format, but fighting against BD and DVD combined?
It's obvious that sooner or later a new format will replace BD, but it will have to walk all its long way to do it, just like DVD did and BD is doing, there's no recipe for easy short cut, unless they give the new and initially very expensive HW needed for free.

You could claim it would be unlikely, but bizarre, no way...  History is full of "formats" that were out for years and never took off enough and were completely overwhelmed by something that came later and had to start from 0.  Blu Ray already has more market penetration than most such examples, but be objective...  it's been out 4 years (3 if you ignore the 1st that was diffuclt to get) and only has 8% of the households (and that is being extremely generous counting PS3s too which outnumber all other Blu Ray players combined) compared to DVD.  Let's say the adoption rate only doubles during the next 3 years for another 16% more, or 24% total.  Plenty of room for a new technology to take over...

Now that Blu Ray players are easily under $150 (under $100 for sales), adoption rate may skyrocket.  However, it might not...  It's bizarre to me to assume that it's a given that it will.  I am not saying that BD won't displace DVD, only that it's not a sure thing that it will...

^^
I don't assume BD will automatically skyrocket once HW is cheap, what I find bizarre, or at least unlikely, is that two things happen simultaneously, BD struggling to take-off and its successor not only not struggling at all, but accelerating as if it didn't suffer from initial difficulties common to every other format. DVD took more than 5 years to become affordable, some more to become commodity, CD even more, nevertheless they became the most used formats of their respective eras,and CD went to the top not when it was still alone, but just during the first years of DVD. And DVD, on its turn, enjoyed its maximum during the first years of BD. About BD, though, HD TV to be in the majority of households is a necessary condition to become the main format, exceeding 50%, this is obvious and I don't deny it, actually I haven't a single BD device or disc yet, neither I have a HD TV.