| Alby_da_Wolf said: What's bizarre to say the least is that some nay sayers claim BD won't displace DVD because it will be surpassed by a not even fully defined yet newer and better format. But won't this new format have an even harder time than BD, as it will have to start from zero, like any other new format, but fighting against BD and DVD combined? It's obvious that sooner or later a new format will replace BD, but it will have to walk all its long way to do it, just like DVD did and BD is doing, there's no recipe for easy short cut, unless they give the new and initially very expensive HW needed for free. |
You could claim it would be unlikely, but bizarre, no way... History is full of "formats" that were out for years and never took off enough and were completely overwhelmed by something that came later and had to start from 0. Blu Ray already has more market penetration than most such examples, but be objective... it's been out 4 years (3 if you ignore the 1st that was diffuclt to get) and only has 8% of the households (and that is being extremely generous counting PS3s too which outnumber all other Blu Ray players combined) compared to DVD. Let's say the adoption rate only doubles during the next 3 years for another 16% more, or 24% total. Plenty of room for a new technology to take over...
Now that Blu Ray players are easily under $150 (under $100 for sales), adoption rate may skyrocket. However, it might not... It's bizarre to me to assume that it's a given that it will. I am not saying that BD won't displace DVD, only that it's not a sure thing that it will...
