| Loud_Hot_White_Box said: And how expensive will those be in 2012 when, yes, Blu-Ray will have a significant install base and a lot of people will be invested in it? Will it be time for people to upgrade by then? Who knows, but I'm thinking no. Whatever is next will be the true niche high-quality disc, because by then digital download will be much more developed, and can deliver higher quality. Who knows, maybe some afficianados will jump at them, but to me, I don't see much market for resolutions above 1080p/lossless audio if the discs cost more. I challenge you to come up with a coherent explanation of why people wouldn't move to higher quality Blu-Ray but WILL move to even higher quality holographic. Especially when HDTVs only go up to 1080p. And people even say that unless you have a big set, you don't even need 1080p. Nope, holographic disc movies will always, always be niche compared to Blu-Ray. It's an open question whether studios will even produce movies on them. |
That's actually my point. Blu Ray will really have until 2014, because holographic storage will likely be too expensive in 2012. Blu Ray might havea significant install base, but it might not. If Blu Ray doesn't, then I think people will be ready for something significantly better than Blu Ray. We are talking an order of magnitude better than Blu Ray. Blu Ray is not a whole order of magnitude better than DVD.
I'll admit there is a good chance that Blu Ray will reach 50% market share, and if it does, it will be difficult for a new format. However, if DVD still has 50% market share by 2014, I think Blu Ray could be pinched into being a niche in-between technology.
