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Forums - Politics Discussion - Trumpcare Would Leave 22 Million Uninsured But Give The Wealthy $250,000 Tax Break

Aeolus451 said:
So? *shrugs They can just sign up with a different insurance than they had.

15 million of the 22 million, CBO projected increase in uninsureds stems from people losing medicaid eligibility. 

If they could afford private insurance, they wouldn't have been medicaid eligible. 



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specialk said:

2.) Why might some individuals not want universal care?

Money, simply put. But not just money for the big guys at the top. The middle and upper-middle class stand to lose out as well.

I'll use myself as an example. I am currently covered through my employer. I am young and healthy, so I select a relatively inexpensive plan with a high dedutible each year during open enrollment. The plan has a HSA (health-savings account) feature that allows me to save over $3K a year, tax deferred. If and when I do get sick, I can use those savings to buy health care services, tax-free. If I am somehow incredibly lucky, and I make it to retirement with no major medical incidents, I can use that money (which could very well grow into six figures by my 60s) just as additional retirement savings.

The passing of the ACA already meant more expensive coverage for me. Given that "Affordable" premiums in the act, is defined by no more than 9.5% of a person's earnings going towards coverage for themselves, my company had to stratify health premiums, so that people making more money paid more for the same coverage so that people making less money were subsidized. 

I would have to imagine that people like me would be hit even more were universal healthcare to pass.

I am not wealthy by any means, but I am young, healthy, I have a good job, and I am good with money. The fact is that the American healthcare system works out phenomenally for me and many others like me.

I'm no expert, but I have to remind you that universal healthcare is not the same as ACA.  Your company pays a butt load of money to provide that health insurance for each and everyone of its employees.  Now that cost would be 0.  That money could then be used on other things for their employees.  So both the middle and upper would actually benefit from it.



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specialk said:
Aeolus451 said:
So? *shrugs They can just sign up with a different insurance than they had.

15 million of the 22 million, CBO projected increase in uninsureds stems from people losing medicaid eligibility. 

If they could afford private insurance, they wouldn't have been medicaid eligible. 

Perhaps that is why they're becoming uninsured. Again they can just buy insurance. Nothing is gonna stop them.



JakDaSnack said:

I'm no expert, but I have to remind you that universal healthcare is not the same as ACA.  Your company pays a butt load of money to provide that health insurance for each and everyone of its employees.  Now that cost would be 0.  That money could then be used on other things for their employees.  So both the middle and upper would actually benefit from it.

Ah.

Implicit in what I was getting at, was the assumption that while I may benefit from a reduction in health premiums (as would my company), that personal benefit to me would mostly be wiped out by increased taxes to pay for the new universal care system. 

Of course, no one knows how it would actually play out, but I assume that my taxes would probably go up.

Of course, countries with universal care pay less per capita than the USA does for healthcare, but it wouldn't be as simple as adopting a Nordic system and having Nordic prices overnight. A lot of money and a lot of benefits circulate around within the US healthcare system, and even if we had universal care, I wouldn't expect the beneficiaries of the current system to go quietly into the night.

For example, general practicioners and nurses in the US are among the higest compensated in the world. Cutting their pay overnight would be a disaster. Switching to universal care would also likely mean care rationing if we wanted the same low prices that other countries have (think wait times, not "death panels").

I expect that universal care would save us money and headache in the long run, but I don't think it would be as simple as passing legislation, and then our costs fall to European costs. I would expect that I'd likely be picking up a chunk of the tab. 



Aeolus451 said:

Perhaps that is why they're becoming uninsured. Again they can just buy insurance. Nothing is gonna stop them.

Except for that whole "can't afford it" thing.



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specialk said:
JakDaSnack said:

I'm no expert, but I have to remind you that universal healthcare is not the same as ACA.  Your company pays a butt load of money to provide that health insurance for each and everyone of its employees.  Now that cost would be 0.  That money could then be used on other things for their employees.  So both the middle and upper would actually benefit from it.

Ah.

Implicit in what I was getting at, was the assumption that while I may benefit from a reduction in health premiums (as would my company), that personal benefit to me would mostly be wiped out by increased taxes to pay for the new universal care system. 

Of course, no one knows how it would actually play out, but I assume that my taxes would probably go up.

Of course, countries with universal care pay less per capita than the USA does for healthcare, but it wouldn't be as simple as adopting a Nordic system and having Nordic prices overnight. A lot of money and a lot of benefits circulate around within the US healthcare system, and even if we had universal care, I wouldn't expect the beneficiaries of the current system to go quietly into the night.

For example, general practicioners and nurses in the US are among the higest compensated in the world. Cutting their pay overnight would be a disaster. Switching to universal care would also likely mean care rationing if we wanted the same low prices that other countries have (think wait times, not "death panels").

I expect that universal care would save us money and headache in the long run, but I don't think it would be as simple as passing legislation, and then our costs fall to European costs. I would expect that I'd likely be picking up a chunk of the tab. 

ya, taxes would go up(I think I heard some estimates were about 2%), but ya, initially hospitals would be crowded, but eventually things would level out.  I honestly don't know how everything else would play out.



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epicurean said:

There's a bunch of what I was talking about in the article here: http://mediatrackers.org/national/2013/10/01/8-charts-explain-explosive-growth-u-s-health-care-costs

Thanks for the link, though I feel I have to point out that mediatrackers was a blog founded by a tea party guy and its primary purpose seems to be to axe grind about democrats and "leftists".

The link specifically, is an opinion piece written by Sean Davis, who founded a similar (though less axe-grindy from what I can tell) website called "The Federalist".

While I'm not going to pick apart the data presented, I do take issue with the way the opinion piece is structured in general. The narrative he is presenting certainly "sounds" reasonable, but he offers no cause and effect justification for what he's saying. It reads largely as a narrative written to push an agenda, which is common on sites like this. 



JakDaSnack said:

ya, taxes would go up(I think I heard some estimates were about 2%), but ya, initially hospitals would be crowded, but eventually things would level out.  I honestly don't know how everything else would play out.

Probably no one does.

Only one way to find out, we dive right in! I'm game if you are.



specialk said:
Raistline said:

This just in, 21.98 million of the people that do not find value in health insurance will no longer be forced to pay for health insurance.

In other, completely related, news, 20,000 people who want to be insured would be uninsured if this new health care act goes through because they cannot afford insurance.

In other, also related new, 22 million people will no longer be insured if the health care act goes through and much of the tax increases in the ACA will be removed.

Funny how a headline and selective data can change a story drastically. This is why you should never take a single news source at face value and try to read from multiple sources to get the real story. The "news" today is really only headlines and fluff. My numbers above are pure fluff

 

*Edit* I am posting this not in favor of Trumpcare, Obamacare, or any political party. This is just an observation that this and most news stories like it are severely biased and politically charged and so cannot be trusted.

This claim didn't hold water when Paul Ryan tried it, and it doesn't hold water now.

Per the CBO analysis of the Senate Bill:

"Enrollment in Medicaid would be lower throughout the coming decade, with 15 million fewer Medicaid enrollees by 2026 than projected under current law in CBO’s March 2016 baseline"

Over two-thirds of the 22 million that the CBO projects would lose out on insurance, would lose out through Medicaid. Medicaid is a hell of a deal and it would be a pretty big stretch to say that those losing out on Medicaid eligibility "don't find value" in it. 

As for the other 7 million, perhaps they would theoretically be making a value calculation, but remember that the bill would dramatically change that equation. 

Under the BCRA, subsidies would change. Currently, they are based on a benchmark plan with 70% actuarial value. The new benchmark would be a plan with 58% actuarial value. So while some of those 7 million may lose coverage because they "don't value" it, part of the reason why they may not value it has to do with this proposed bill lowering the value of the coverage available to them. 

Apparently you did not read my entire post. I was not arguing the facts, the number or anything to that affect. This post was meant only to be an example of how bad news is and how you should not believe anything you read until you get facts, not conjecture, from multiple and opposing sources.

But hey, thanks for using my post as a platform to start an argument and spew information at me and everyone else without backing up your quotes without citing sources, other than a single CBO quoted line. :D

I am not looking to start/continue an argument with you so beyond this I will not reply.



specialk said:
Aeolus451 said:

Perhaps that is why they're becoming uninsured. Again they can just buy insurance. Nothing is gonna stop them.

Except for that whole "can't afford it" thing.

This isn't true for every case though. I'm not sure what changed but at one point when I started paying child support they immediately forced my job to add healthcare as well for my daughter. Later on me and her mother got back together for a few more years than split up again. During that time she had switch to her moms healthcare and then her mom stopped working. 

Later on she somehow got my daughter on medcaid. This triggerd the OAG to start going after me for child support, which is fine I was paying her directly but now they took over didn't matter to me either way but they take a %20 cut so I hate having them do it. What they never did this time around though is go after me for her healthcare and they let her stay on medicaid. I never understood why but I later on got told by somebody that Obama made it way easier for people to get medicaid. Which can be a good thing unless your creating tons of loop holes for people to get it who shouldn't be getting it. I dont know if the Obama making it easier is true or not I never bothered to look it up.