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Forums - Gaming - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

SegataSanshiro on 25 June 2017
Namiirei said:

60 millions sold now.

so : -75 millions shipped for the end of fiscal year (march 2018)
93 millions shipped for the end of 2019 fiscal year.
100 millions sold near the end of 2019.

Here you go

 

Lol'ed at people (mostly nintendo ""fans"") saying never.

I love the PS4 in fact my fave system this gen and said never. Also the plural for million in that context is just million. Not millions.



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Namiirei on 25 June 2017
SegataSanshiro said:

 Also the plural for million in that context is just million. Not millions.

Yeah, a easy mistake.

It's a little different from french.



zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

I think you are taking things out of context, nobody is saying PS2 wouldnt have a been a huge success without a DVD player, they are just saying it was a big contributing factor.

Early on in its life a console that doubled as a DVD player right out of the box was a big deal in the major markets like US, Europe, Japan and later on in its life it was a big deal for developing countries.

See but what people are suggesting when they say this is that the PS2 sold on a fad, as a casual non gamer product. But the software sales and attach rate completely say otherwise and outclass any Nintendo console for example, you know, completely dedicated gaming consoles with no multimedia functions?

I don't doubt that in the early days of the PS2 the DVD functionality at least pushed people over the edge on getting a PS2, but even then the PS4 sold much faster than the PS2 at launch, entirely on the premise of being a dedicated home console. 

The thing is, the argument for Nintendo Wii being a casual console for example actually has solid evidence to back it up, all you need to do is look at the decline and the WiiU's failure. But the PS2 DVD craze narrative holds much less weight when you consider 1) Software attach rate and 2) the fact that 2 other consoles in the brand name have sold or are going to sell over 100 million units, and the only reason PS3 didn't was because of launching for $200 more than the competition 1 year later.

In no way does that suggest PS2 was a fad, people are just saying that it helped it become a more appealing product. 

 

For example, a wife/mother in 2002 is looking to get the family their first DVD player, her husband has a casual interest in sports games and their kids want the new games based on kids properties (Harry Potter, Shrek, Spongebob, etc) which one are they likely to choose?

$150 DVD+$150 Gamecube or $200 PS2? Probably the PS2.

 

 

Again, nobody is suggesting that PS2 wouldnt have been a huge success without a DVD player, it would have still easily cleared 100 million and dominated the competition but hypothetically it may have looked something like this.

 

With DVD player

PS2, ~155 million

XB+GC+DC, ~55 million

 

Without DVD player

PS2, ~125 million

XB+GC+DC, ~70 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
thismeintiel said:
LethalP said:
Jesus Christ (our saviour), there are still people who pedal the notion that the PS2 sold so well because of it's DVD player. The thing reached 100 million units in 2005, by then Blu-ray players were out and DVD players were $40. It went on to sell another 55 million units after that, was that because it played DVD's or because it had by far the best game library of any console to date for cheap? I'd say the latter.

The truth is it seems to pain people to see Sony on top so much that they have to explain it away with other things besides games.  When the PS2 launched, you could get a DVD player for less than $100.  There's absolutely no way people were paying $300 for a PS2 to play DVDs.  And the high attach rate for SW proves it.  Like I said before, people became interested in DVDs because they had a PS2. Not the other way around.  Weird how the Xbox did DVD, too, yet sold a lot less. Hmmm.

I guess PS1 only did so well because it could play CDs.  . So, what's the excuse for the PS4? Bluray?

You could not get a $100 DVD player in 2000



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

LethalP on 25 June 2017
thismeintiel said:
LethalP said:
Jesus Christ (our saviour), there are still people who pedal the notion that the PS2 sold so well because of it's DVD player. The thing reached 100 million units in 2005, by then Blu-ray players were out and DVD players were $40. It went on to sell another 55 million units after that, was that because it played DVD's or because it had by far the best game library of any console to date for cheap? I'd say the latter.

The truth is it seems to pain people to see Sony on top so much that they have to explain it away with other things besides games.  When the PS2 launched, you could get a DVD player for less than $100.  There's absolutely no way people were paying $300 for a PS2 to play DVDs.  And the high attach rate for SW proves it.  Like I said before, people became interested in DVDs because they had a PS2. Not the other way around.  Weird how the Xbox did DVD, too, yet sold a lot less. Hmmm.

I guess PS1 only did so well because it could play CDs.  . So, what's the excuse for the PS4? Bluray?

Yep, and when the PS4 doesn't hit 155 million (but does well over 100 million) people will say it was because it didn't have an exclusive multimedia function to exploit lol.

The fact of the matter is, Sony have had the best home console of every generation since 1994, it's just the way it is.



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LethalP on 25 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

See but what people are suggesting when they say this is that the PS2 sold on a fad, as a casual non gamer product. But the software sales and attach rate completely say otherwise and outclass any Nintendo console for example, you know, completely dedicated gaming consoles with no multimedia functions?

I don't doubt that in the early days of the PS2 the DVD functionality at least pushed people over the edge on getting a PS2, but even then the PS4 sold much faster than the PS2 at launch, entirely on the premise of being a dedicated home console. 

The thing is, the argument for Nintendo Wii being a casual console for example actually has solid evidence to back it up, all you need to do is look at the decline and the WiiU's failure. But the PS2 DVD craze narrative holds much less weight when you consider 1) Software attach rate and 2) the fact that 2 other consoles in the brand name have sold or are going to sell over 100 million units, and the only reason PS3 didn't was because of launching for $200 more than the competition 1 year later.

In no way does that suggest PS2 was a fad, people are just saying that it helped it become a more appealing product. 

 

For example, a wife/mother in 2002 is looking to get the family their first DVD player, her husband has a casual interest in sports games and their kids want the new games based on kids properties (Harry Potter, Shrek, Spongebob, etc) which one are they likely to choose?

$150 DVD+$150 Gamecube or $200 PS2? Probably the PS2.

 

 

Again, nobody is suggesting that PS2 wouldnt have been a huge success without a DVD player, it would have still easily cleared 100 million and dominated the competition but hypothetically it may have looked something like this.

 

With DVD player

PS2, ~155 million

XB+GC+DC, ~55 million

 

Without DVD player

PS2, ~125 million

XB+GC+DC, ~70 million

But if those 30 million wanted a DVD player and not a gaming machine why would that increase the other consoles sales? PS2 would still have the best library and dominant position.



zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

In no way does that suggest PS2 was a fad, people are just saying that it helped it become a more appealing product. 

 

For example, a wife/mother in 2002 is looking to get the family their first DVD player, her husband has a casual interest in sports games and their kids want the new games based on kids properties (Harry Potter, Shrek, Spongebob, etc) which one are they likely to choose?

$150 DVD+$150 Gamecube or $200 PS2? Probably the PS2.

 

 

Again, nobody is suggesting that PS2 wouldnt have been a huge success without a DVD player, it would have still easily cleared 100 million and dominated the competition but hypothetically it may have looked something like this.

 

With DVD player

PS2, ~155 million

XB+GC+DC, ~55 million

 

Without DVD player

PS2, ~125 million

XB+GC+DC, ~70 million

But if those 30 million wanted a DVD player and not a gaming machine why would that increase the other consoles sales? PS2 would still have the best library and dominant position.

Some of the people who wanted a DVD and a game console could have potentially gotten a DVD+GC or XB+DVD addon instead of a PS2 and the people who primarily wanted it for DVD use would likely have just gotten a DVD player.

 

125 million for PS2 vs 70 million for XB+GC+DC is still very dominant so i dont know why you are telling me it would still have dominated........myself and pretty much everyone agree with that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Cobretti2 on 25 June 2017

This i why I am not sure rather than just say it without explaining..

PS3 was hell expensive at launch it sales started slow. Pretty much my friends and me started buying it 12months or more after launch.

PS4 launched at a much better price we all got it within the first 12months of launch.

Now i am sure the same can be said for others. PS4 is very very front loaded with sales. This is why I am not sure if it will slow down or if there is growth to be had.

Don't forget at one stage Wii looked like it was going to hit 120+ million.

Will XBOX ONE X have an impact on sales? who know till t is out, but probably a case of too little too late.

Now some will argue that since XBOX ON selling bad th gen that their must be growth for the PS4. Last gen because f the PS3 price a lot of people were forced to buy the xbox 360 first to play the latest games. Last gen there would have been many multi console owners. This gen hour Microsoft cocked up o much with their DRM announcements that it turned people away from owning multi console.

I do however think it will cross the 100million but not 100% sure because Sony will leave it out on shelves long enough for it to happen at a reduced price for at least 2 years after PS5 has launched. So it may trickle over the line.



 

 

binary solo on 25 June 2017

Not totally sure it ever will. PS4 is lagging in a launch aligned comparison by about 11 million, on VGC (full year sales to end of 2016 for PS4). While Wii dropped like a stone after year 5, Wii's 5th year was basically equal to PS4's current top year. At this rate PS4 will need to have serious legs to get to 100 million. I expect PS4 to peak in annual sales this year, or possibly to be past its peak already.

If it's going to make it past Wii I'd say 2021 or '22



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

LethalP on 25 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

But if those 30 million wanted a DVD player and not a gaming machine why would that increase the other consoles sales? PS2 would still have the best library and dominant position.

Some of the people who wanted a DVD and a game console could have potentially gotten a DVD+GC or XB+DVD addon instead of a PS2 and the people who primarily wanted it for DVD use would likely have just gotten a DVD player.

 

125 million for PS2 vs 70 million for XB+GC+DC is still very dominant so i dont know why you are telling me it would still have dominated........myself and pretty much everyone agree with that.

I'm saying that because who says those 30 million wouldn't have just bought a PS2 and a DVD player? It was the dominant console with the best library so I doubt the addition of a DVD player made all the difference to them to make them buy the severely less supported competition. I know 125 million is just a roundabout number, but I think you're overestimating the DVD's influence on it's sales. And again, the software tie ratio doesn't lie.