By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

thismeintiel said:
COKTOE said:

 

This is the stuff betting dreams are made of. I went through this thread and read most of the posts the two of you made. These are my propositions:

 Dulfite: 6 months of avatar and sig control that you are wrong in your prediction that the PS4 will sell at least 20 million less than the Wii, and another 6 months that you are wrong that it won't outsell the Wii.

Teriol: You seem very confident that the PS4 will fail to outsell the Wii. So, same deal as above. If you are correct, you have 6 months of avatar and sig contol over me, if you are incorrect, I have six months of control over you.

I'm a big, fat pig, and I want to slovenly, drool flying through the air, feast on two ripe melons.

The hilarious thing to me is how some Nintendo fans act like the Wii pulled off some undoable feat, completely ignoring that both the PS1 and PS2 outsold the Wii.  Even the PS3, which had just about everything going against it (high price and lesser 3rd party ports for the first year), came within 15M of it.  Which means that as far as that 20M less than the Wii bet goes, that's as good as won.  Hell, it'll be ~20M-22M less than the Wii by March of next year.  And even if the PS5 launches in late 2019, that'll be 1 1/2 more years for the PS4 to sell without its successor on the market.

With the exception of my beloved Vita, the 80 million+ range is the low end for PS systems, so yeah, making terrifying sales monsters are definitely in their wheelhouse.



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

Around the Network
Kristof81 said:
I doubt it. PS4 had fantastic 2016, but so far in 2017 sales kind of stagnated. With Switch and soon Scorpio on the market, there will be quite substantial amount of potential customers who will sway towards competitors. Not to mention that the PC gaming is on the all time high and keeps growing. So far PS4 was the universal platform of choice for gaming, that might not be the case next year.

..

2015 : 4.5mill

2016: 5mill

2017 : 7.4 mill

 

Jups " stagnated"

 

Anyone  who believes  ps4 wont easily  beat wii is in for a big surprise. 



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

thismeintiel said:
foxtail said:
thismeintiel said:

Then, can you explain away the decent legs the PS1 saw after the PS2 launched?  Sure, they weren't as good as PS2's, but it still sold 23M from 2001-2004, after the PS2 was launched WW.  I think the PS4 is going to do something similar.

In May of 2002 Sony cut its official price of the PS1 to clearence-like pricing of only $49/£49 MSRP.  

That was a cut of 1/6 of the PS1 launch price of $299.  

An official price cut of 1/6 of the launch price doesn't happen very often, if at all.

Without it's official $49/£49 price points the PS1 likely would not have crossed the 100M mark before the end.

To put that in perspective most other new games at that time were also $50 or more. Conker's Bad Fur Day launched a year earlier in March of 2001 on the N64 for a MSRP 69.95 USD.

So the PS1 was effectivly as cheap as a new game (or cheaper) from 2002 onward.  Buy a disc/cart game, or for the same price buy a console with controller.

...

Price is only one factor for a system to sell.  If price was the only thing needed to stay selling so well, the GC should have at least sold twice as much as it did, as it dropped to $99 long before the PS2 did. 

...

The $99 Gamecube comes up all the time..

But the $99 Gamecube didn't exist in a bubble, most people don't remember but the DVD capable PS2 was very cheap as well.

After the $99 price cut on the Gamecube the PS2 was on average only ~$51 more expensive.

The PS2 was also on average only ~$54 more expensive than the Gamecube throughout the Gamecube's lifespan.

~$50 wasn't much of a premium to get the extra  ability of a fully functioning DVD movie player.

Price is important, but so is the price and demand of all competing products (which could include products from the same company).

 

 Date

Gamecube Price

PS2 price

~Price difference

November 2001

$199 (launch price)

$299

~6 months $100

May 2002

$149 (-$50)

$199 (-$100)

~12 months $50

May 2003

$149

$179 (-$20)

~4 months $30

September 2003

$99 (-$50)

$179

~8 months $80

May 2004

$99

$149 (-$30)

~23 months $50

April 2006

$99

$129 (-$20)

~10 months $30

Feb 2007

$99 discontinued

$129                     

-

April 2009

-

$99 (-$30)

-

 

 

thismeintiel said:

The hilarious thing to me is how some Nintendo fans act like the Wii pulled off some undoable feat, completely ignoring that both the PS1 and PS2 outsold the Wii.  Even the PS3, which had just about everything going against it (high price and lesser 3rd party ports for the first year), came within 15M of it.  Which means that as far as that 20M less than the Wii bet goes, that's as good as won.  Hell, it'll be ~20M-22M less than the Wii by March of next year.  And even if the PS5 launches in late 2019, that'll be 1 1/2 more years for the PS4 to sell without its successor on the market.

 

According to Sony the PS1 production ended at 102.49M 

The Wii is at 101.63M and with the PS1 at 102.49M there's only a 0.86M difference between the Wii and PS1.

Less than 1 Million is not that much and if the Wii cut its price earlier it would have had more than 101.63M easily.

------

Nintendo also actually kept the Wii above the $199 USD price point for a longer period than Sony kept the PS2 above $199.

thus resulted,

Sony sold around 11 Million PS2s in the NA region before it dropped to $199, it ended up selling 50 Million plus there.  

So close to 80% of PS2 sold in that region were sold for $199 or less.

to compare,

Nintendo sold ~26 Million Wii in the America region before it dropped to $199, it ended up selling 48 Million plus there.  

So less than 50% of Wii sold in that region were sold for $199 or less.

------

Nintendo could have done more to boost Wii sales, but the Wii did sell a lot in a short amount of time.

The other HD consoles had the weight of the industry behind them, the Wii did not.  

Overall, what the Wii did was impressive for the time.

 




foxtail said:
thismeintiel said:

...

Price is only one factor for a system to sell.  If price was the only thing needed to stay selling so well, the GC should have at least sold twice as much as it did, as it dropped to $99 long before the PS2 did. 

...

The $99 Gamecube comes up all the time..

But the $99 Gamecube didn't exist in a bubble, most people don't remember but the DVD capable PS2 was very cheap as well.

After the $99 price cut on the Gamecube the PS2 was on average only ~$51 more expensive.

The PS2 was also on average only ~$54 more expensive than the Gamecube throughout the Gamecube's lifespan.

~$50 wasn't much of a premium to get the extra  ability of a fully functioning DVD movie player.

Price is important, but so is the price and demand of all competing products (which could include products from the same company).

 

 Date

Gamecube Price

PS2 price

~Price difference

November 2001

$199 (launch price)

$299

~6 months $100

May 2002

$149 (-$50)

$199 (-$100)

~12 months $50

May 2003

$149

$179 (-$20)

~4 months $30

September 2003

$99 (-$50)

$179

~8 months $80

May 2004

$99

$149 (-$30)

~23 months $50

April 2006

$99

$129 (-$20)

~10 months $30

Feb 2007

$99 discontinued

$129                     

-

April 2009

-

$99 (-$30)

-

 

 

thismeintiel said:

The hilarious thing to me is how some Nintendo fans act like the Wii pulled off some undoable feat, completely ignoring that both the PS1 and PS2 outsold the Wii.  Even the PS3, which had just about everything going against it (high price and lesser 3rd party ports for the first year), came within 15M of it.  Which means that as far as that 20M less than the Wii bet goes, that's as good as won.  Hell, it'll be ~20M-22M less than the Wii by March of next year.  And even if the PS5 launches in late 2019, that'll be 1 1/2 more years for the PS4 to sell without its successor on the market.

 

According to Sony the PS1 production ended at 102.49M 

The Wii is at 101.63M and with the PS1 at 102.49M there's only a 0.86M difference between the Wii and PS1.

Less than 1 Million is not that much and if the Wii cut its price earlier it would have had more than 101.63M easily.

------

Nintendo also actually kept the Wii above the $199 USD price point for a longer period than Sony kept the PS2 above $199.

thus resulted,

Sony sold around 11 Million PS2s in the NA region before it dropped to $199, it ended up selling 50 Million plus there.  

So close to 80% of PS2 sold in that region were sold for $199 or less.

to compare,

Nintendo sold ~26 Million Wii in the America region before it dropped to $199, it ended up selling 48 Million plus there.  

So less than 50% of Wii sold in that region were sold for $199 or less.

------

Nintendo could have done more to boost Wii sales, but the Wii did sell a lot in a short amount of time.

The other HD consoles had the weight of the industry behind them, the Wii did not.  

Overall, what the Wii did was impressive for the time

ps2 has did it with cheaper competitors, wii competed with most expensive consoles and not for a little.



zogs88 said:

ps2 has did it with cheaper competitors, wii competed with most expensive consoles and not for a little.


The PS3 was the cheapest Blu-ray player when it came out.
 

The PS2 was competitively priced against standalone DVD players throughout its life.

 The Xbox and PS2 were similarly priced for the most, but the Xbox required a $30 dongle to play DVDs.

 



Around the Network
foxtail said:
zogs88 said:

ps2 has did it with cheaper competitors, wii competed with most expensive consoles and not for a little.


The PS3 was the cheapest Blu-ray player when it came out.
 

The PS2 was competitively priced against standalone DVD players throughout its life.

 The Xbox and PS2 were similarly priced for the most, but the Xbox required a $30 dongle to play DVDs.

 

So, the whole crux of your argument is...the PS2 and PS3 sold on multimedia capabilities, while the Wii did not?  So, what the Wii did was impressive, but what they did was not?  People buy gaming systems to play games, not movies.  That is just icing on the cake.  You may want to look into the SW attach rates for those consoles.  Both have a higher ratio than the Wii does.  So, that puts that multimedia theory to rest.  The VAST majority of people who bought those systems bought them to game, not for Blurays or DVDs.  Especially in the PS2's case where DVD players were much cheaper than it, even at its launch.  At the end of 2000, you could get a DVD player for less than $100.  DVDs didn't help the PS2.  The PS2 helped DVDs.  And a $30 dongle had nothing to do with the PS2 beating the Xbox.

Really, if I wanted to make a poor argument, I could say the reason the Wii sold so well is because people bought them to hack them (which is extremely easy to do) to play homebrew games/apps and DVDs, and that's why it didn't sell as much SW as the PS2 and PS3.



Never.



foxtail said:
zogs88 said:

ps2 has did it with cheaper competitors, wii competed with most expensive consoles and not for a little.


The PS3 was the cheapest Blu-ray player when it came out.
 

The PS2 was competitively priced against standalone DVD players throughout its life.

 The Xbox and PS2 were similarly priced for the most, but the Xbox required a $30 dongle to play DVDs.

 

Bought a brand new Sony DVD player for $150 in 2001. It was a good one. PS2 was $300.



thismeintiel said:
foxtail said:


The PS3 was the cheapest Blu-ray player when it came out.
 

The PS2 was competitively priced against standalone DVD players throughout its life.

 The Xbox and PS2 were similarly priced for the most, but the Xbox required a $30 dongle to play DVDs.

 

So, the whole crux of your argument is...the PS2 and PS3 sold on multimedia capabilities, while the Wii did not?  So, what the Wii did was impressive, but what they did was not?  People buy gaming systems to play games, not movies.  That is just icing on the cake.  You may want to look into the SW attach rates for those consoles.  Both have a higher ratio than the Wii does.  So, that puts that multimedia theory to rest.  The VAST majority of people who bought those systems bought them to game, not for Blurays or DVDs.  Especially in the PS2's case where DVD players were much cheaper than it, even at its launch.  At the end of 2000, you could get a DVD player for less than $100.  DVDs didn't help the PS2.  The PS2 helped DVDs.  And a $30 dongle had nothing to do with the PS2 beating the Xbox.

Really, if I wanted to make a poor argument, I could say the reason the Wii sold so well is because people bought them to hack them (which is extremely easy to do) to play homebrew games/apps and DVDs, and that's why it didn't sell as much SW as the PS2 and PS3.

That quote I was responding to was talking about price.  Respond to my original quote that was responding to your quote instead.

 

I never said what the PS2 did was not impressive.  I was originally saying the higher price of the PS2 than the GameCube was in part due to  built-in DVD, and that  built-in DVD capability did add value that could sway customers.

Cheap $150-$100 DVD players did exist in late 2000 but it was also said that at that time only six percent of US households owned a DVD player.  

Still a burgeoning market for DVD players in late 2000.

So buying a PS2 in late 2000 would still give you $100 of extra value if you wanted to have DVD movie player anyways.  

By May 2002 the PS2 was only $199 which made it attractive as a reasonably priced game and DVD player combo if you were interested in both which in turn made it more competitive.

The point is that the added value out the box made it more compelling had it not had that feature at all.

The PS2 and PS3 are bound to have higher attach rates than the Wii simply because they have had more industry games coming out for them, thus my comment about full industry support here.

The Wii also had a slightly higher attach rate during the first 23 months on the market.  Again the chart shows that Nintendo was  greatly supporting the Wii with its first party while the 3rd party industry was largly backing the PS3.

Though in the end the Wii also didn't do too bad with software sales either.

9.031 attach rate.





foxtail said:


The PS3 was the cheapest Blu-ray player when it came out.
 

The PS2 was competitively priced against standalone DVD players throughout its life.

 The Xbox and PS2 were similarly priced for the most, but the Xbox required a $30 dongle to play DVDs.

 

course blu ray was a success, i think xbox one can surpass ps4 cause it has a 4k bluray drive