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Forums - Sales Discussion - May NPD prediction thread (which console will win this months NPD?)

 

Which console will win this month's NPD?

Xbox One 6 2.42%
 
PS4 56 22.58%
 
Nintendo Switch 167 67.34%
 
Wii U :P 19 7.66%
 
Total:248
PAOerfulone said:
Switch - 250k
PS4 - 230k
XBO - 210k
3DS - 57k

Switch should have considerable amounts of momentum carrying over from the end of April with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, plus the releases of SF2 and Minecraft, and that should be enough to give it the edge over the PS4 this month.

I'm guessing that XBO number is a joke, right?

Besides that, my numbers are close to yours.

Switch - 250K
PS4 - 220K
XBO - 95K
3DS - 65K



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I can't see how anyone could have the XBO above 110K, which is about what it did last year. The XBO has been down so far this year. What is going to cause it to all of a sudden be up YOY? If we look at Amazon rankings, which has at least been a good guide, XBO took #50 and #58 last year. This year it's...not even in the Top 100. I think we are looking at sub-100K myself.



Seeing as how PS4 and XBO have been pretty close to each other for the most part with PS4 being slightly ahead every month I don't see what's so different about May that would make XBO DRASTICALLY drop to the point where it's not even at 100k.



PAOerfulone said:

Seeing as how PS4 and XBO have been pretty close to each other for the most part with PS4 being slightly ahead every month I don't see what's so different about May that would make XBO DRASTICALLY drop to the point where it's not even at 100k.

Except the PS4 hasn't only been slightly ahead.  In just the first 4 months, the gap in the US grew by 500K.  Last month the gap was ~100K.  And it wouldn't really be a drastic drop for the XBO to drop below 100K.  It only did ~107K last year.  It would only take it being down 7% for it to drop below 100K.



I'll just predict the loser, it's the only one that's interesting.
Xbox one <90K less than 90, for some reason the less than symbol doesn't show. 



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All numbers in thousands:

Switch - 220 (I expect that some MK8 stock was pulled forward from May)
PS4 - 210
XBO - 100
3DS - 60



 
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:3

Switch - 230k
PS4 - 190k
XBO - 140k



PAOerfulone said:
Switch - 250k
PS4 - 230k
XBO - 210k

3DS - 57k

Switch should have considerable amounts of momentum carrying over from the end of April with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, plus the releases of SF2 and Minecraft, and that should be enough to give it the edge over the PS4 this month.

Theres just no way its that close.

Going by Amazon, with PS4 haveing multiple SKUs in the top100, and the XB1 basically all month without any.

Reguardless of what might think, Amazon is still a good tell of how sales are in the US.

XB1 isnt doing over >150k in May, let alone >200k.



PAOerfulone said:

Seeing as how PS4 and XBO have been pretty close to each other for the most part with PS4 being slightly ahead every month I don't see what's so different about May that would make XBO DRASTICALLY drop to the point where it's not even at 100k.

In April NPD (month before may)

It ended up like this (neogaf):

 

Nintendo Switch: 280k

PS4: 229k

XB1: 127k

 

Xbox one selling about half of the PS4 is.... close? PS4 just slightly ahead?

It hasnt been close all year.



WiiU is beating XB1 now.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m