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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware (04/01/17)

Mummelmann said:
DonFlamenco said:
When stock is fully replenished I wouldn't be surprised to see Switch outselling the PS4 2:1 and the Xbox One 4:1 for the next couple of years.

Awesome seeing Nintendo back on top where they belong!

I would quite surprised if they managed to sell 100-200-300% more than they can produce. Outselling the PS4 2:1 would entail 500k regular weeks and likely 2-3 million holiday weeks. That's more than the DS could do back when it shipped about 30 million or more for one fiscal year.

And that was SHIPPED! For it to out SELL the PS4 2:1 it would have to SELL MORE than 30 million+ per year for the next 2-3 years which means the shipped would even higher.



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Shadow1980 said:

The problem with including Nintendo into the standard generational classifications is that PlayStation & Xbox are now running longer generations than the historical average. It used to be that systems peaked by their second full year (maybe later in unusual circumstances), and were replaced in 5-6 years tops. But last generation was longer, perhaps deliberately, with the PS3 & 360 lasting 7 and 8 years respectively before being replaced and not peaking until 2011, far later than any systems that preceded them. The Wii meanwhile lasted only 6 years before the Wii U came out, and the Wii U has already been replaced despite coming out only 4-½ years ago. Nintendo's systems still follow historically "normal" sales curves. The Wii peaked in 2008, and the Wii U peaked in 2014. In all likelihood, the Switch will peak no later than 2019. Meanwhile, the PS4 and XBO are only just now cresting their peaks, and depending on how fast they decline, probably won't be replaced until 2020, plus or minus a year. This means that the Switch will have passed its own peak and entered the terminal decline phase of its life when the PS5 and Xbox 4 are in their infancy, and the Switch's successor will likely come out no later than Nov. 2022. This is an extremely likely scenario based on historical trends.

It also leads one to ask, "If the Switch is Gen 9, then will its successor be Gen 10 even though it came out only two years after the PS5 did?" And looking even further out, we are faced with the prospect of Nintendo kickstarting Gen 11 right when Sony & MS are only just entering Gen 10. A decade from now, the whole idea of continuing to shoehorn Nintendo into the traditional numbered generations thing will look absurd if we insist that each subsequent console from them heralds the start of a new numbered generation. If we must assign consoles into a numbered generation, it ought to be defined in terms of competition. The Switch will be spending its prime years being nominal competition for the PS4 and XBO, not for the PS5 & X4. The idea of two consoles from one brand in a single generation is not unprecedented; in the conventional numbering scheme widely used today, which lumps all pre-crash-of-'83 cartridge-based systems into the "Second Generation," Atari did just that, releasing the 2600 and 5200 in the same generation. It is worth pointing out that http://strategy.sauder.ubc.ca/nakamura/iar515p/gallagher_innovation.pdf">older sources split Gen 2 into two separate generations, though, with the 5200 & Colecovision being considered a different generation than the systems released in the late 70s; interestingly, Coleco referred to the ColecoVision as a "third wave" system, and several media sources from back in 1982 referred to both the ColecoVision and 5200 in the same way. But the Wikipedia convention, which has since become the standard on internet discussions (even though their fusion of all pre-crash cartridge-based systems into a single gen is largely original research), lumps the 2600 and 5200 into the same generation. That pre-crash generation was a bit of a clusterfuck, but it is what it is.

In any case, Nintendo is effectively desynchronized from PlayStation & Xbox. That means we should either start to exclude them from the standard numbered generations, or classify their systems based on what their primary competition is during the main part of their life cycle.

No dude gen doesn't mean sychronized releases of platforms and similar power, Mega Drive released 2-3 years after the Master System launched and 2 years before the SNES. NES itself launched in 83 in Japan and had a 7 year life span while SNES had a 6 year span, N64 launched 2 years after the competition and was in the same gen while DC launched in 98 2 years after the N64 but is still classed in the same gen as PS2/GC/Xbox.

Gen classification is being over thought by some people here, Switch is Gen 9 because it follows their Gen 8 platforms.



so a handheld with no third party games should belong to no.1! then imo xb1 with no first party exclusives should belongs to no.1 too.



Shadow1980 said:

The Master System is simply the Western name for the Sega Mark III, which is simply an enhanced version of the SG-1000. The SMS was basically the Pro/Scorpio of its generation, though only Japan got the older versions of the hardware. The SG-1000/SMS platform started in 1983 in Japan, same as the NES.

The Dreamcast was considerably more powerful than the N64. Its GPU was upwards of 14 times as powerful, it had 6.5 times as much RAM as a base N64, and its CPU was over twice as fast. It was far closer to the PS2 than to the N64 in terms of power. And it launched only 15 months before the PS2 did in Japan. The N64 was a little late to the game in Japan (which used to get any given console much earlier than the West did), but the Dreamcast's power and release timing puts it square in the same generation as the PS2.

And again, if we use the "Switch is the Wii U's successor, and Wii U was Gen 8, so Switch is Gen 9" logic, it will start to get absurd fast. This right here is a very possible timeline we could be looking at:

The SG100 and SMS were separate platforms based on the same design and the first was more geared towards the likes of the prior Atari era platforms while the SMS took cues from the NES, it's not comparable to the Pro/Scorpio as even the controllers and library for both platforms were different, the SMS version 2 is more closer to the Pro/Scorpio situation.

DC proved that it's not about a synched released like you argued earliar even your very own graph does more to push this than your own stance if you want to argue power that's fine Switch is more powerful than both Wii U and 3DS in both docked and portable mode. If your argument is about Switch not being more powerful than a platform already out well your chart has already contradicted you as Wii was Xbox level power and you've classed that in the same gen as other successors.

No matter what anyone pushes here Switch is a Gen 9 platform simple as that as it's a successor to gen 8 platforms much in the same way the person who is elected after Trump will be the 46th President.



Wyrdness said:

No matter what anyone pushes here Switch is a Gen 9 platform simple as that as it's a successor to gen 8 platforms much in the same way the person who is elected after Trump will be the 46th President.

So if Nintendo decided to release the successor to the Switch in 2021, Gen 10 would start? A "generation" refers to multiple systems over multiple companies so the, "It's a new console +1 gen" logic doesn't work if companies follow different release schedules. You'll get to a point where Nintendo release there "Gen 11" machine before Sony/MS have even released a "Gen 10" machine. 

The US Presidency is singular, a console generation is a group, bad analogy.

There's nothing to stop a company releasing there next-gen console every 3 years, next release = +1 is a completley flawed defintion for an industry-wide generation.

The Switch is Nintendo's next generation console, that's it.



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Barkley said:
Wyrdness said:

No matter what anyone pushes here Switch is a Gen 9 platform simple as that as it's a successor to gen 8 platforms much in the same way the person who is elected after Trump will be the 46th President.

So if Nintendo decided to release the successor to the Switch in 2021, Gen 10 would start? A "generation" refers to multiple systems over multiple companies so the, "It's a new console +1 gen" logic doesn't work if companies follow different release schedules. You'll get to a point where Nintendo release there "Gen 11" machine before Sony/MS have even released a "Gen 10" machine. 

The US Presidency is singular, a console generation is a group, bad analogy.

There's nothing to stop a company releasing there next-gen console every 3 years, next release = +1 is a completley flawed defintion for an industry-wide generation.

The Switch is Nintendo's next generation console, that's it.

A President or Prime Minister in the UKs case can be replace before the usual term is up so the analogy is fine it's happened here in Britain twice in the last decade it doesn't stop the replacement being classed as the next President or Prime Minister it's happened in South Korea this year. Show me where it is written in law that a company has to follow a schedule to be defined as a gen, the is none only what people have made up in their heads a gen is not an industry wide thing it never was it was an individual classification for platform released by companies.

What blows your argument out the water is the SMS and Megadrive which released 3 years from their predecessors and where all different gens, companies didn't follow schedules they released platforms strategically which forced other companies to react and people mistook that as some gentlement agreement that the is this schedule that needs to be stuck to.



Wyrdness said:
Barkley said:

So if Nintendo decided to release the successor to the Switch in 2021, Gen 10 would start? A "generation" refers to multiple systems over multiple companies so the, "It's a new console +1 gen" logic doesn't work if companies follow different release schedules. You'll get to a point where Nintendo release there "Gen 11" machine before Sony/MS have even released a "Gen 10" machine. 

The US Presidency is singular, a console generation is a group, bad analogy.

There's nothing to stop a company releasing there next-gen console every 3 years, next release = +1 is a completley flawed defintion for an industry-wide generation.

The Switch is Nintendo's next generation console, that's it.

A President or Prime Minister in the UKs case can be replace before the usual term is up so the analogy is fine it's happened here in Britain twice in the last decade it doesn't stop the replacement being classed as the next President or Prime Minister it's happened in South Korea this year. Show me where it is written in law that a company has to follow a schedule to be defined as a gen, the is none only what people have made up in their heads a gen is not an industry wide thing it never was it was an individual classification for platform released by companies.

What blows your argument out the water is the SMS and Megadrive which released 3 years from their predecessors and where all different gens, companies didn't follow schedules they released platforms strategically which forced other companies to react and people mistook that as some gentlement agreement that the is this schedule that needs to be stuck to.

So PS5 can be classified as a 10th generation machine? But no the analogy is not fine, a generation contains multiple systems, the 8th president is always referring to one individual, there can never be more then one president at a time. Meanwhile the 8th generation refers to multiple different entities all belonging to the same group.

I have no idea how you think, a president (individual), is a good analogy for Generation (group).

New Console = +1 is not a valid defintion for a shared generation, and like it or not 6th,7th,8th,9th generation, these are shared, not individual classifications, these refer to a group of systems. Generations are archaic and going the way of the dodo, but anyone insisting on using them must have a defintion for generation better than "it's another system though!"

What if Nintendo released a successor in 2019, would that be the start of 10th gen? You can't take one companies release schedule as a definitive line for a generation, as the generation covers the whole industry thus it needs to take the whole industry into account.

A console generation is a group of consoles, thus for it to be part of a generation it needs to be grouped with other devices, and a reason for being grouped with those devices as opposed to others.



NS is 8.5th generation, problem solved.



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Barkley said:
Wyrdness said:

A President or Prime Minister in the UKs case can be replace before the usual term is up so the analogy is fine it's happened here in Britain twice in the last decade it doesn't stop the replacement being classed as the next President or Prime Minister it's happened in South Korea this year. Show me where it is written in law that a company has to follow a schedule to be defined as a gen, the is none only what people have made up in their heads a gen is not an industry wide thing it never was it was an individual classification for platform released by companies.

What blows your argument out the water is the SMS and Megadrive which released 3 years from their predecessors and where all different gens, companies didn't follow schedules they released platforms strategically which forced other companies to react and people mistook that as some gentlement agreement that the is this schedule that needs to be stuck to.

So PS5 can be classified as a 10th generation machine? But no the analogy is not fine, a generation contains multiple systems, the 8th president is always referring to one individual, there can never be more then one president at a time. Meanwhile the 8th generation refers to multiple different entities all belonging to the same group.

I have no idea how you think, a president (individual), is a good analogy for Generation (group).

New Console = +1 is not a valid defintion for a shared generation, and like it or not 6th,7th,8th,9th generation, these are shared, not individual classifications, these refer to a group of systems. Generations are archaic and going the way of the dodo, but anyone insisting on using them must have a defintion for generation better than "it's another system though!"

What if Nintendo released a successor in 2019, would that be the start of 10th gen? You can't take one companies release schedule as a definitive line for a generation, as the generation covers the whole industry thus it needs to take the whole industry into account.

A console generation is a group of consoles, thus for it to be part of a generation it needs to be grouped with other devices, and a reason for being grouped with those devices as opposed to others.

I think for the most part, the "generations" are defined by which consoles spent the most time competing against each other in the retail space.  Coleco Vision competed for sales against both Atari 2600 and Atari 5200 during it's lifespan, so it made sense for 2 Atari systems to be lumped into Gen 2.  If Switch spends most of it's lifespan competing for shelfspace against PS4 and XBox One the same as Wii U did, then yeah, I would concede that Nintendo released 2 consoles in the 8th gen.  If a hypothetical PS5 or next XBox released 2 years from now leading the Switch to spend half of it's life or more competing against those systems for shelf space, then one would be equally justified to classify the Switch as a 9th gen system.  It is complicated yes.  I don't think the question can definitively be answered until Sony or Microsoft release their own successor console.  Only then will it be clear which "group" of systems Switch will spend the most time sharing retail space with.



Barkley said:

So PS5 can be classified as a 10th generation machine? But no the analogy is not fine, a generation contains multiple systems, the 8th president is always referring to one individual, there can never be more then one president at a time. Meanwhile the 8th generation refers to multiple different entities all belonging to the same group.

I have no idea how you think, a president (individual), is a good analogy for Generation (group).

New Console = +1 is not a valid defintion for a shared generation, and like it or not 6th,7th,8th,9th generation, these are shared, not individual classifications, these refer to a group of systems. Generations are archaic and going the way of the dodo, but anyone insisting on using them must have a defintion for generation better than "it's another system though!"

What if Nintendo released a successor in 2019, would that be the start of 10th gen? You can't take one companies release schedule as a definitive line for a generation, as the generation covers the whole industry thus it needs to take the whole industry into account.

A console generation is a group of consoles, thus for it to be part of a generation it needs to be grouped with other devices, and a reason for being grouped with those devices as opposed to others.

The analogy is fine because you're arguing about the US President like he's the only politician in the world the are many Presidents of different countries, the comapnies in this case are the countries and their leading politician is the platform so yes the analogy is perfectly fine.

What the hell are you on about PS5? It would be a 9th gen platform like Switch as PS5 is the successor to PS4 this part of your post isn't coherant, generation is not industry wide as many have tricked themselves into believing it's individual for the platform, Switch is a 9th gen platform so will PS5. Even your argument about 6th, 7th blah blah contradicts you as these were triggered by one platform releasing first forcing a reaction much like I mentioned earliar also note how you skipped previous generations to try and help your argument.

No shit a generation is a group of consoles now here's news for you they don't all need to release in synch, if Nintendo released a successor in 2020 as unlikely as that what if argument you're trying to push is yes it would be a 10 gen platform after all Megadrive did just that.