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Forums - Nintendo - Will 3DS outsell the GBA?

 

Will it?

Yes 48 27.91%
 
No 124 72.09%
 
Total:172

Ehhhhh ... maybe, but it'll take so many years that it'll be almost a meaningless accomplishment. GBA did most of its 80 million in 3-4 years alone, it would have outsold the Wii if it had a proper 5 year cycle.



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No, I don't see it happening, even though Nintendo is extended the 3DS life with the New 2DS



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Nintendo will be the judge of that. As of now, it seems they want to grant the 3DS the case over GBA with the New 2DS.



No.



NintendoPie said:
Nintendo will be the judge of that. As of now, it seems they want to grant the 3DS the case over GBA with the New 2DS.

True, I think if Nintendo wanted to, it could have the 3DS sell more than the GBA. Give it some more big IPs such as another mainline Pokemon and Mario game and that would keep it selling well, but I think they might be saving their heavy hitters for the Switch, which I think is smart enough. With the right moves such as constant system selling franchises, price cuts, sales, bundles and they could have the Switch be the one to outsell the GBA.



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I don't think so, unless Dragon Quest XI is accompanied with a new Monster Hunter and a new mainline Pokemon game.



Asriel said:

It can, yes, but will it?

A lot of that depends on how Nintendo's subtle shift in strategy with 3DS plays out. The combination of releases we're seeing in the short-term points to an attempt to rediscover the low-income family market that allowed GBA to sell alongside DS into 2007/08 in North America and some of the 'Touch' generations vibe that powered DS to an astonishing 120 million units across North America and Europe. There are clear signs that 3DS - which has outsold GBA in Japan - has clearly not found the Western market that powered DS and, less widely acknowledged, GBA to greater success. GBA sold 63 million across Europe and North America, for example, with ~40 million of those sales coming in North America. By way of comparison, 3DS has sold  a little over half that in North America. We can say, clearly, that 3DS will out-perform GBA in Europe and Japan, but is currently some way short of that in the North American market, and finding some of that Western market for GBA/DS will decide how long Nintendo keep 3DS on the market, and whether or not it can ultimately outsell GBA.

Clearly Nintendo are pushing for that younger, lower income market, with New 2DS XL and 2DS more broadly increasingly becoming the focus for the 3DS family. On top of that, we're seeing a mixture of child/family orientated titles and riffs on the 'Touch' generations line-up coming to market (moreso than usual): Hey Pikmin!, Ever Oasis, Devillish Brain Training (5 years after it came out in Japan!), Cooking Mama, Miitopia. Nintendo are even localising the kid-orientated Monster Hunter Stories, which Capcom considered a disappointment sales-wise in Japan, which is an interesting move. We'll likely see a degree of cross-platform software support into 2018 (Switch/3DS), and 3DS still has room to move on price, so there are ways for Nintendo to shift more units. Additionally, we might see legacy titles sell strongly through hardware bundles, or through the success of smartphone titles (Animal Crossing mobile may trigger a revival of Animal Crossing sales on 3DS, for example). 

3DS needs at least three years of meaningful sales to beat GBA. If we assume Nintendo hit their current FY target, then 3DS is at 72 million in March 2018, and needs to ship another 9 million or so before being discontinued to beat GBA. I think it's more likely 3DS will end up in a very similar ball-park to GBA. If Nintendo allow 3DS to trickle along, then matching GBA isn't unreasonable, say they ship 4 million in the financial year ending April 2019 (76m), then 3 million (79m), then 1.5 million (80.5m), then 500,000 (81m), for example. While I think 3DS can match GBA, I think out-selling it (certainly by any clear margin) is far less likely. That being said, Nintendo may yet find there's a sizeable lower-income market waiting for 3DS to come down in price, and that might shift a few million more units.

Come through market analyst. 



I don't think it'll reach that point, but whereas a few months ago I would have offered a definitive "no" their continued support for it makes me think they probably have at least another year of life planned for the thing, so it's not impossible.

I'm honestly quite tempted to get the 2DS XL (despite owning the 3DS XL and New 3DS XL lol) because it looks so thin, nice, and doesn't cost much. Honestly, the 2DS XL might help sell a few, as it essentially dropped the entry cost of the "best version" of their handheld (assuming you don't care about 3D) by quite a decent amount, and cool games are continuing to come out for it.

It has a robust library at this point and, if they really want to, they can keep pumping these out (manufacturing costs will certainly drop without hardware upgrades) and selling them for increasingly less over time if they so choose. There'd definitely be people who were never quite convinced to get it that would buy in if the top experience drops down around $100.



Selling another 15 million seems really hard for the 3DS at this point of its life. Maybe it's possible if it gets the next Pokemon and Monster Hunter and they drop the price of the 2DS XL to $100. But even then, I wouldnt be so sure...I'm leaning towards no.



3DS is at 66.12 and Nintendo forecasted 6m for this fiscal year which will put the 3ds at 72.12 by 31st March 2018 so theres no way it will win against the GBA :(