In its first, full year the Wii used to sell 300k units per week on average. And that's during "slowish" year. Next year it was already 450k. Until I see numbers like that, my guess is around 3DS figures.

Who knows at this point. Switch is outselling the Wii ltd right now so it had a better launch then the Wii. If Nintendo properly markets ARMS like they did Splatoon and produce an awesome E3 with lots of surprise games coming to the system and the momentum doesn't die in June then July will be Splatoon and August might be fire emblem warriors with Xenoblade 2 in September or October and Mario Odyssey in November or December. We also have FIFA, NBA and Skyrim and we don't know how badly the market craves a portable skyrim and NBA won't be that huge but FIFA will be massive in Europe if done properly. We have Steep as well and of course the games we don't knwo about yet. May will be good because of Mario Kart but I believe that if ARMS is done right then nothing is stopping the momentum of the switch and it will outsell Wii ltd for the first year. After that who knows? But I still don't believe the PS4 will cross Wii at least before PS5 starts so 130mil for ps4 is stretching it for me. If done right the switch can be a beast in a sense that only Nintendo can produce

The Switch. The lifecycle of the Switch is going to be longer than the Wii.

wii, not even the 3ds will touch it, and with nintendo still supporting the 3ds with the latest release of the 2dsxl, the switch will struggle to hit 60m lifetime

I think the Switch can if it is Nintendo's sole system. Just imagining a HD portable Pokemon title should move millions and millions of units.

Funny how the worst selling handheld for Nintendo got 65 million, and Sony's worst selling console got 80m. Shows how dominant they can be, even at their worst

It has the potential, but at the moment, I think the Wii will win

Maybe is something big happens later, then possibly, but I'm still doubtful at the moment

So, I finally found the time to answer. Sorry to keep you waiting!

Your argument seems to be that the Switch can outsell the Wii by catering to male audiences aged 20-40 and that female audiences are out of reach because of the mobile phone market, right? But the numbers and Nintendo's actions tell a very different story.

Adressable market - First of all, matching Wii sales by catering to male audiences only is simply impossible. Let's take the US as an example: There are currently 80 million people aged 20-40 in the United States. Half of those are male. That's an adressable target audience of 40 million people. The Wii sold 45 million units in the US total. That means, even mathematically, it is impossible for the Switch to match the Wii's sales, unless it reaches 100% market penetration among the market you want them to adress. No even the iPhone comes even remotely close. I tried to use a broader definition and include older men and boys - but you explicitly said in your posts that you think the Switch is not aimed at children and Nintendo shouldn't try to cater to children and instead position the Switch as a hardcore gamer machine. You also don't want them to sell to older people ("soccer moms", grandpas, etc.).

Nintendo doesn't agree with you - You support your view by two things. 1) A quote by Miyamoto and 2) the fact that the Switch sold primarily to male audiences. First things first, you should never listen to Miyamoto when it comes to market analysis. He has absolutely no idea. He thinks the Virtual Boy didn't sell because of bad marketing, he thought the Gamepad was a great idea and can't understand why Pikmin doesn't sell well. Miymoto is an artist / developer and not a market analyst.

So, what does Nintendo say about the female market? First of all, the Wii and DS were highly successful because of women. Second, the reason the Wii U and 3DS didn't sell was because they didn't reach the female market. Iwata explicitly said that the key to making the 3DS more successful was to adress women of all ages (even girls and seniors). That's exactly what Nintendo did on the 3DS with titles like Mario Kart, Tomodatchi Collection and Animal Crossing and it paid off. Nintendo is also adressing the female market with the 2DS XL. You are the one to regularly point out that Nintendo uses young male actors in their Switch ads. Well, guess who they use in the ads for the 2DS XL? Lots of women and children. They are explicitly targeting the female market with it - why would they target a market if said market "was gone" and on smartphones now? Here's another article on that matter. 

Also, Nintendo explicitly said they think the Switch will equal Wii sales because they will sell multiple consoles to one household. So even if the first customer is a male aged 20-40 what about those other people in that household Nintendo wants to adress? Unless you want them to exclusively target gay couples (no problem with that) this statement by Kimishima is in stark contrast to what you are saying. 

Your ideas about the male / female split in console gaming are wrong - 40% of all home console players are female. 45% of all handheld gamers are women. 55% of all mobile phone gamers are women (or even just 51%). You make it seem like there's this huge number of women playing on smartphones compared to men but it's just not true. The only console that caters primarily to men (65%, see linked source) is the Xbox One and coincidentally, Microsoft is selling way less consoles than Sony this gen! So I have two questions for you: 1) How are women abandoning console gaming ("smartphone drift" is what you said I think) compared to men when just as many men play games on smartphones - why would the female market be un-adressable but the male market not? 2) Why would women need to come back to dedicated gaming in the first place when they were never gone? This brings me to my next point.

Not a single console was ever successful without women - adding to this is the fact that not a single console was ever a success without women. According to the data above, the PS4 has more female gamers than the Xbox One and is more successful. Iwata explicitly said to make the 3DS sell more, it would need to cater to female audiences. Also, only 7% of all Wii U eShop purchases were made by women (data from 2014). We know the DS and Wii were a huge success with women and the PS2 sold incredibly well because of women later in its lifecylce (Sing Star, yeah!). Do you want me to make a regression analysis to prove it? Higher percentage of female players equals higher console sales. (I don't really want to make one, to be honest. But the data points I gathered and scribbled on my Whiteboard show a clear correlation).

Mario does not cater to hardcore males only - You say the Switch is a hit with hardcore gamers and I agree. But to suggest that a company like Nintendo, with mass market / female friendly IP's like Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Tomodatchi, Kirbiy, even Pikmin will be primarily successful with male gamers while not attracting female ones is quite outlandish in my opinion. Sony and Microsoft put a lot more resources into competing with the male aged 20-40 demographics than Nintendo. And even they have a sizable amount of female customers.

Me being naive - Lastly, I want to adress the point of me being naive. For some reason you seem to be under the impression that it's personally important for me that Nintendo makes the Switch another Wii. It's not. In my opinion you seem to be more invested in the idea of the Switch catering primarily to hardcore gamers (and for some reason only hardcore gamers, though not even Sony and Microsoft do that). What I do is look at the data and go from there. I remember the Wii generation when people continued to be perplexed about Nintendo's sales - but only because they refused to look at the data. They did not want a mass market console to be successful and so they ignored these things and ignored the theory of disruption and the blue ocean theory, which Nintendo based its successes on (you did a similar thing in another post. I brought up Disruption and you said "I don't care if the Wii was disruptive" - that's explicitly brushing aside one of the most robust business theories ever created and substituting it with "the casuals have moved on! Females play on smartphones!"). They also ignored that the PS2 was a big hit because it catered to the casual gamers, as well!

Well, that was a long post haha. Last but not least I want to say that even though we don't agree on this I respect your opinion and respect you as a poster. Maybe my posts comes off as harsh but I'm not trying to attack you. (It's the same as in the feminism thread: I'm not against women's rights, I just think we should look at the data instead of arguing from an emotional point of view). 

Of Course it can, not matter if will do that, I personally expecting to hit around/or above 3DS numbers (70m+).

My responses:

On female split: IMO a lot of these survey's are skewed for home consoles. Take my own household for example, we have a Switch, PS4, XB1, Wii U, 3DS. My fiance has played approximately 30 minutes (combined) in the last year. After watching me play for hours, she wanted to try one day, and played for about 20 minutes once on Switch, and then 10 minutes on PS4 like 6 months prior. I've played hours and hours and hours. But if we did a survey, on a lot of these surveys it would be listed as a 50/50 split. Really that's bullshit though, she has little to no interest in any of these game machines and would buy 100393838 pairs of shoes before you could convince her to buy any game console. You also have things like the mom of the household filling out registration cards in lieu of their kids doing it, when the mom doesn't even play. 

I don't buy stuff like 40%+ of PS4 owners/actual users are women either, again see the reasons stated above. For individual device statistics, I think those are more accurate ... ie: like a smartphone because that's a personal device that usually only one person uses (unless it's a child using their parents phone to play games on). 

On Miyamoto: You're right that Miyamoto has made bad calls on things like the Wii U tablet and Pikmin. But that really doesn't have anything to do with this topic. Your assertion is women are just dying to play dedicated video games and they just need the right sales pitch and they'll gladly come running from smartphones. Well, Miyamoto can't even get this to happen in his own household. And he says he brings home Nintendo product/consoles and tries to get his wife to play. She won't play them. But she will play smartphone games. And this is quite common too, I know many women like this. Smartphones for gaming, if you're not interested in complex games with tons of buttons (which a lot of women aren't) quite frankly kick the shit out of what Nintendo's offering. What's one-two titles per year ala 1,2 Switch (or even Wii Fit/Music/Party back in the day) for $50 each versus 5000 different free smartphone games all easy to play, many with cute/colorful/inviting graphics? Not to mention a phone is always with a woman (if you want to get slapped the fastest way to do it is to grab a woman's smartphone away from her), and they know it's interface inside out, so it's way more convienant. Where does Nintendo have an edge here really?

Instead of trying to pigeon hole the Switch as having to be just one way (the Wii way), let me suggest an alternative scenario. Switch could beat Wii because Switch can be an ecosystem of devices. Wii was only (a singular/rigid) system. An ecosystem of multiple devices can beat up on a single device over time. 

Furthermore, by being an ecosystem of devices rather than just one device, it can also bend/break the rules of "generations" altogether, whereas Wii was rigidly restricted by a traditional cycle of sales (strong sales in years 1-2-3, followed by declining and eventually collapsing sales in year 4-5-6). 

IMO, you could see by 2020/2021, something like this: Switch Pro (Tegra X3 based Switch for fall 2020), Switch Regular (16nm Tegra X2, similar to current Switch w/better battery life), Switch Mini (16nm Tegra X2 with smaller form factor), Switch Home (screen-less home only Switch microconsole, cheap). 

If Nintendo does that and execute well on the momentum they have now (which is primarily from the male market), yes, they possibly can beat the Wii. 4 systems can beat 1, even without the fat soccer moms who thought Wii Fit was going to give them a beach body. An ecosystem can beat a system.