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Forums - Gaming - None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

 

Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
Medisti on 10 June 2017
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

It's currently outpacing the Xbox One in the same time frame, which has sold over 30 million. Being pessimistic and being blind to statistics don't need to go together. The sales rate can change, of course, but if the Switch keeps selling at the same rate, there's no way it'll sell less than 30m lifetime. Especially if it does get a mainline Pokemon game in a year or two.

That doesn't mean it'll sell much more than 30m lifetime either, though.



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160rmf on 10 June 2017
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

Nintendo handhelds didn't need super-original titles to sell well.

Oh, and welcome to 2017! So many things happened since November 2016.



 

 

We reap what we sow

zorg1000 on 10 June 2017
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

With each passing day your prediction gets more and more unrealistic.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

160rmf on 10 June 2017
Medisti said:

Being pessimistic and being blind to statistics don't need to go together.

Are you sure? Feels like it is a definitive criteria for  most members in this site



 

 

We reap what we sow

Zod95 on 10 June 2017
Medisti said:
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

It's currently outpacing the Xbox One in the same time frame, which has sold over 30 million. Being pessimistic and being blind to statistics don't need to go together. The sales rate can change, of course, but if the Switch keeps selling at the same rate, there's no way it'll sell less than 30m lifetime. Especially if it does get a mainline Pokemon game in a year or two.

That doesn't mean it'll sell much more than 30m lifetime either, though.

WiiU sales were strong at the beginning, then they suffered a steep decline. Wii sales were astronomic in the first 3 years, then they suffered a steep decline and even got totally crushed by X360 and PS3. Xbox consoles usually have better legs than Nintendo consoles. I'm not blind to historic figures at all, let alone statistics (which is not the same thing as history). Statistics is just a tool, in this case to read history. And history is just a tool that can be helpful to predict the future. Moreover, I consider that I already use it too much (that's why I couldn't perceive Wii's success out of GC's and N64's failures).

Sure there's the possibility that I'm wrong but, if history repeats itself, NS's sales rate will change dramatically (compared to its competition) in a year or two.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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Zod95 on 10 June 2017
160rmf said:

Nintendo handhelds didn't need super-original titles to sell well.

Nintendo consoles did.

 

160rmf said:

Oh, and welcome to 2017! So many things happened since November 2016.

What do you mean?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 on 10 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

With each passing day your prediction gets more and more unrealistic.

I don't think so. From the beginning I was expecting a strong start. NS is doing 47% better than WiiU. What does that tell you?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

160rmf on 10 June 2017
Zod95 said:
160rmf said:

Nintendo handhelds didn't need super-original titles to sell well.

Nintendo consoles did.

SNES didn't.

Edit: nevermind. It had 3rd party support, matches with your cherry picking.



 

 

We reap what we sow

S.T.A.G.E. on 10 June 2017
oniyide said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Thats not the point. Most of them are focused on PC or consoles

And they also make up a lot of the sales for 3rd party games, but if they are focused on PCs and consoles then it doesnt really matter what Ninty does in that case. When we talk blockbuster (GTA, Red Dead, Etc) hell even the Final Fantasys and main Kingdom Hearts isnt coming

Nitnendo is going to use the 3DS methodology....just in a console. 



Pyro as Bill on 10 June 2017

Do 3rd parties still make new blockbusters? They did well in the 7th gen but don't seem to have had much success with new AAA IPs in the 8th.

The high end is overrated anyway, most of their sales are down to marketing. The Minecrafts, Overwatches and Rocket Leagues are more important than the Bioshocks, Destinys and Watch Dogs.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!