None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

[Zod95]

Medisti said:

Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

It's currently outpacing the Xbox One in the same time frame, which has sold over 30 million. Being pessimistic and being blind to statistics don't need to go together. The sales rate can change, of course, but if the Switch keeps selling at the same rate, there's no way it'll sell less than 30m lifetime. Especially if it does get a mainline Pokemon game in a year or two.

That doesn't mean it'll sell much more than 30m lifetime either, though.

WiiU sales were strong at the beginning, then they suffered a steep decline. Wii sales were astronomic in the first 3 years, then they suffered a steep decline and even got totally crushed by X360 and PS3. Xbox consoles usually have better legs than Nintendo consoles. I'm not blind to historic figures at all, let alone statistics (which is not the same thing as history). Statistics is just a tool, in this case to read history. And history is just a tool that can be helpful to predict the future. Moreover, I consider that I already use it too much (that's why I couldn't perceive Wii's success out of GC's and N64's failures).

Sure there's the possibility that I'm wrong but, if history repeats itself, NS's sales rate will change dramatically (compared to its competition) in a year or two.