The key part of that is if nintendo learnt from it's mistakes or not. So far there's signs that they haven't learned a damn thing. Just seems like they're trying a different console concept out instead. We'll see. 

Nothing tragic about it, at least not of a magnitude that switch will sell below 30mil units as the OPs poll suggest.

And I see it as a missed oppurtunity for 3rd parties rather than a great loss to Nintendo. I'm sure that even some very late ports, such as GTA V, would sell millions on the system.

I also think that almost any AAA 3rd party game that would have been released in the period between zelda and MK8D would sell north of a million.

The current situation is a big win for Nintendo. If they manage to produce enough units, switch will easily surpass total Wii U numbers in its first year, and almost every full-priced million seller will come from Nintendo (except FIFA and maybe Skyrim).

It is also amazing how Nintendo is slowly covering many genres, producing highly reviewed games in any of them. I'm not saying that Splatoon and CoD are similar games, but I'm glad to see that they are experimenting with new IPs while constantly polishing and innovating in their established game series.

The Wii U came out in 2012 and was mostly a part of the PS4 and Xbone's life. The Wii U got a lot of games that were on the PS3 and 360. Your argument should be  that the Xbox One and PS4 are doing fine without those IPs. 

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-Super_Boom

The best selling games are always Sports titles, and Shooters. Destiny and Battlefront tried to fill the gap left by CoD's poor quality. They succeeded to a point, but Overwatch sells better and is better. IMO there's not enough room left in the shooter market for either Battlefront, or Destiny to sell over 4 million copies this year.

Then to answer your question I don't think Destiny or starwars will be incremental in the switch's success or failure in any way or form. And I forgot the their series you mentioned

Honestly, that's fine by me. I don't really care for a lot of the stuff coming from major third parties anyway. Let Sony and MS fight over those. I've long since given up on any AAA devs, particularly from the west, supporting Nintendo platforms. Switch could sell 250 million, and most would still be just sitting on their hands going "derp, not powerful enough for our fantastic vision!" "deerp, we can't get Nintendo players to buy OUR games! Waaaah!"

For me, indies are the new version of third parties. Those are what are important, and Nintendo should focus on getting as many quality third party indies as they can to help fill in the gaps in between the major Nintnedo releases. And of course, there will still be the occasional major Japanese Squaresoft/Capcom/etc game sprinkled in, and an occasional Skyrim and Payday 2, or other ports. Coupled with all the Nintendo titles from both the home console and handheld pipelines, and the massive wave of indies, that's all Nintendo really needs at this point. Wii's success has proven you don't need strong AAA third party support. If these multi-million $ publishers are too short-sighted to figure out a way to tap into this rapidly growing market on the Switch and leave tons of money on the table, it's no skin off my back, and I don't believe off Nintendo's either. I have an Xbox One, and a decent PC for those anyway. 

Switch isn't a handheld and the handheld market is dying. Switch isn't a hot new gimmick like wii was. Switch should sell well but not having the great 3rd parties will hurt Nintendo. 

Nintendo buyers don't buy Nintendo systems for 3rd party games. It both helps and hurts Nintendo

Not gonna lie. I do love that despite Nintendo constantly reiterating the Switch is not a handheld and theyll keep supporting the 3ds, when detractors point out valid issues with the device as a home console, devotees just keep going nah its a handheld.