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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Only Minecraft and Street Fighter for May? Can Switch sell well this month?

 

Switch will be ok?

Switch will win May NPD 227 54.57%
 
Nintendo will drop Switch 30 7.21%
 
Wii U shall rise and take the throne 79 18.99%
 
See results 80 19.23%
 
Total:416
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

The burden of proof is on those claiming something unproven exists.

no its on the person who made the original claim, which was you 3 days ago:

"A 3 year old port isn't going to be a strong system seller, and ARMS is unproven, so Switch sales could slump considerably in May-June, though hopefully not so badly that Splatoon 2 can't kick-start it again in July."

since that point you have been arguing that its not hyped and not a system seller with nothing to back it up.

I don't have to prove a negative, until such time as something is proven to exist, the default position is that it doesn't.



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curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

no its on the person who made the original claim, which was you 3 days ago:

"A 3 year old port isn't going to be a strong system seller, and ARMS is unproven, so Switch sales could slump considerably in May-June, though hopefully not so badly that Splatoon 2 can't kick-start it again in July."

since that point you have been arguing that its not hyped and not a system seller with nothing to back it up.

I don't have to prove a negative, until such time as something is proven to exist, the default position is that it doesn't.

That's nonsense mate any claim negative or not has to proven.



Wyrdness said:
curl-6 said:

I don't have to prove a negative, until such time as something is proven to exist, the default position is that it doesn't.

That's nonsense mate any claim negative or not has to proven.

Say you tell me unicorns exist on Earth. There may not be definitive proof that they don't, but if there is no evidence that they do, the ball is in your court to provide said evidence.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

no its on the person who made the original claim, which was you 3 days ago:

"A 3 year old port isn't going to be a strong system seller, and ARMS is unproven, so Switch sales could slump considerably in May-June, though hopefully not so badly that Splatoon 2 can't kick-start it again in July."

since that point you have been arguing that its not hyped and not a system seller with nothing to back it up.

I don't have to prove a negative, until such time as something is proven to exist, the default position is that it doesn't.

fine, its the most preordered game in Japan according to COMG and in the US according to Amazon.

its also currently one of the most advertised Switch games and the system is selling out as fast as shipments come in.

evidence to support the claim that its a hyped game that will move hardware.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I don't have to prove a negative, until such time as something is proven to exist, the default position is that it doesn't.

fine, its the most preordered game in Japan according to COMG and in the US according to Amazon.

its also currently one of the most advertised Switch games and the system is selling out as fast as shipments come in.

evidence to support the claim that its a hyped game that will move hardware.

Hype and hardware sales exist independently of advertising and software sales though. A game can sell without being a big system seller, and a game can be advertised extensively without generating hype among consumers.



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curl-6 said:
Wyrdness said:

That's nonsense mate any claim negative or not has to proven.

Say you tell me unicorns exist on Earth. There may not be definitive proof that they don't, but if there is no evidence that they do, the ball is in your court to provide said evidence.

Not very good at your arguments are you, I never made such a claim so don't have to prove anything you on the other hand have made a claim so now you have to prove it. If you go to court both sides have to prove their claims that's how it works not just one side.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

fine, its the most preordered game in Japan according to COMG and in the US according to Amazon.

its also currently one of the most advertised Switch games and the system is selling out as fast as shipments come in.

evidence to support the claim that its a hyped game that will move hardware.

Hype and hardware sales exist independently of advertising and software sales though. A game can sell without being a big system seller, and a game can be advertised extensively without generating hype among consumers.

so strong preorders dont count as people being hyped for a game? strong hardware sales leading up to a highly advertised games release dont count as moving hardware? ok buddy.

i used concrete data to support my side now lets see you do the same thing. provide a single bit of evidence that suggests there is no hype or it wont sell systems.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Hype and hardware sales exist independently of advertising and software sales though. A game can sell without being a big system seller, and a game can be advertised extensively without generating hype among consumers.

so strong preorders dont count as people being hyped for a game? strong hardware sales leading up to a highly advertised games release dont count as moving hardware? ok buddy.

i used concrete data to support my side now lets see you do the same thing. provide a single bit of evidence that suggests there is no hype or it wont sell systems.

A lot of existing Switch owners want to play on their new system besides Zelda, doesn't necessarily mean any sizeable portion of Switch sales are being driven by Mario Kart itself. Ports like Mario Maker 3DS and Master Chief Collection sold well to existing owners but did not significantly spur hardware sales.

But we're clearly going to continue to disagree so we might as well just leave it here.



RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

A lot of existing Switch owners want to play on their new system besides Zelda, doesn't necessarily mean any sizeable portion of Switch sales are being driven by Mario Kart itself. Ports like Mario Maker 3DS and Master Chief Collection sold well to existing owners but did not significantly spur hardware sales.

But we're clearly going to continue to disagree so we might as well just leave it here.

Please, curl, you don't need to do this to yourself. Snap out of this perpetual pessimism you are practicing. You are like a guy who watches a football game that is in its very final minute with a score of 3-0 and insists that the team in the lead could still lose.

Well said.



DarthMetalliCube said:
Zod95 said:

I'm already on record. See my signature.

When WiiU launched (end of 2012) I was predicting 65M total sales, when most people thought that was an incredibly low number. In the beginning of 2014 (and you can check my signature on that) I was dramatically adjusting it to 25M, and again most people thought that it was too low (almost hateful). Now we all know it will end at around 15M.

Switch is revolutionizing as much as WiiU and I'm only predicting more for it because it sold more than twice (on its first week) than Wii or WiiU.

But I want you on the record too. Make a prediction for Switch total sales by the end of 2020. Then we'll see who's closer.

Wii u has no bearing on the Switch, same way Gamecube had no bearing on the Wii. New generation, brand new start.. Unless you're Sega, but their meltdown was largely thanks to a consistantly weak marketing campaign, oversaturation of consoles, and consistantly horrible business decisions. 

It's not about "revolutionizing," it's just about having solid hardware with great games. Switch is solid hardware. Zelda is a great enough game that it is almost single handedly selling consoles. And there are a ton of great looking games in the pipeline. Once pokemon comes out, that's when things really will take off. Then it's game over.

Sure - I'll go with roughly 40 million by the end of 2020, probably a little more. The console will have more of a slow burn than the Wii, but will still sell steadilly for the next 2-3 years and ultimately sell about as well, and perhaps even better than Wii when it's all said and done.

So you predict 40M in the first 4 years and 60M for the 2 or 3 subsequent years? You're aware that no console in history sold worse in its first for years than in the remaining ones, right?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M