I don't think anyone here can reliably predict what's going to happen. In fact, I think we can all agree on just one thing: this generation is a bit different than the past few iterations, and while historical trends are still very important, I wouldn't say they're unbreakable this time around. In the past, a system with the Wii's current success would almost surely, undoubtedly dominate the rest of the generation and, given current sales, probably go on to be the most popular system of all time.
But the Wii is different enough that I'm not sure we can simply assume all those historical trends are accurate. I could personally see it going either way. Here's what goes on in my head:
Many have said that the Xbox360 and PS3 will be absolutely dominated by the Wii, as the GC/Xbox were by PS2. My logical responses:
1) Every generation has some systems that are graphically inferior to others, but it's usually a minor issue. This time it's much bigger: games can't just simply be ported from the PS3 to the Wii. You'd need a complete graphical overhaul. This complicates things, and I'd say it complicates it in 360/PS3's favor, as games can be fairly easily ported between 360/PS3, but not from Wii to any of the other two.
2) The price of the 360/PS3 will come down relative to the Wii. It won't maintain a 2:1 price point forever. People who feel the Wii is a relative bargain may not feel that way when the price gap is 50 or 100 dollars instead of 150-350.
3) The biggest games for the PS3 have not arrived yet, and there is no clear indication that all of the key 3rd party franchises will flock to the Wii, even if the Wii IS recieving more support now than it was previously. Nintendo may fail for a reason completely uncontrollable: the major 3rd party players just simply cannot adapt. They can't figure out how to make good games for the system, even as Zelda: Twilight Princess has shown it's possible. They don't know how to port successfully and they feel underwhelmed working with less-than-stellar hardware. In short, Nintendo could lose simply because the other companies aren't creative enough to adapt to the new playstyle.
On ther other hand, many have said that the Wii will run out of steam at some point, and that the HD systems will shine in the end. My logical responses to this:
1) We really don't know how big a gamer revolution this is. It's possible that there will be millions upons millions of people buying this system who would never even dream of buying a PS3/360. For any price. Simple example: if a PS3 was 10 bucks, the hospitals still wouldn't be buying them for their patients in rehab. My parents wouldn't be buying one, either (and they may be getting a Wii). How many examples out there are like this? If there are a few million, not a big deal, but if there are tens of millions, then the PS3/360 really may be completely outstripped.
2) I think a lot of this "it will run out of steam" talk could just be nervousness on the part of 360/PS3 owners. They don't like the new, more casual, brain age / nintendogs / Wii sports style of gaming. They prefer epic, usually violent, blockbuster titles like Assassin's Creed or Metal Gear. There is no question that a Wii revolution would challenge and alter the way these games are made, if they are made at all. In some cases, I wonder if people don't want to believe in the Wii simply because they don't like what it could mean about the future of gaming.
Lastly, and most improtantly, there simply is no sign that the Wii is slowing down in any fashion. Analysts kept waiting for signs of it, people kept predicting that the Wii would slow down and the PS3 would eventually speed up-- but it just.hasn't.happened. It's hard to take anyone's predictions seriously when a slew of people have been caught saying: "Okay, now the Wii will slow down." and then it doesn't. "Okay then, NOW it will." And then it still doesn't. "Okay, I promise you this time, it WILL slow down, and the PS3 will pick up, you'll see," and yet Wii sales keep on trucking, if not increasing, and the PS3 sales go down, and down, and down. Do I think that might reverse itself? Sure, I think so at some point. But given how absolutely wrong so many people have been, I'm just going to stick to my points above and say: "It could go in almost any direction."
