It's true the leap in technology form the Gamecube to the Wii is far smaller than from the N64 to the GC, but does it actually matter? Looks to me like the people saying it does are the same who claimed the Wii is a fad that only lasts a few months, PS3 will start selling fast when FEAR/Gundamn Musou/Motorstorm/Lari is released, the PS3 will replace PCs etc.

We can already say for a fact that graphics aren't the main factor that decides which console ends up on top, otherwise the first two Playstations wouldn't have outsold their more powerful competition. We can also say with reasonable certainty that the Wii will attract more casual gamers than previous generations, and those types generally care even less for cutting edge technology.

I think we can all agree on the above.

We could also speculate that at some point in the future people will magically get bored with Wii games because the games on the other systems look nicer, and start migrating to other consoles. This despite the the extremely likely case of the Wii achieving a market share of over 50% and the again totally undeniable fact that a vast majority of games get released on the most popular system.

Now that is something I'm not agreeing with. It's clearly the most likely scenario in which the Wii isn't an absolutely insane success on the long term, but most likely really means the least impossible in this case. Of course it's probably what the fans of the other systems will be saying for the next few years, but that's how it works. 

If the Wii continues at the current rate, it could potentially sell nearly 15m units by November, which is amazing, but don't forget, that demand is now being met (just about)....so at 1.2m units being sold every month.....Nintendo needs another 80-90 months at the same sales worldwide to catch up with the current position of the PS2...that would mean that it would take until 2013 at least before the sales would match.

The Wii will not outsell the PS2 for several reasons:

i) Increased competition - MS & Sony will not let it do so. If the Wii becomes a run-away success for years, in 3-4 years they will simply release direct competitors.

ii) Hardware iterations - the PS2 had a couple of iterations. I don't think the Wii will have any.

iii) Reliability - the most important, and biggest reason. I'll be interested to know how people still have an original, working PS2 from 2000. I have gone through 3 of them (i.e. 2 breaks - all read head issues) - and Sony does NOT make repairing them an easy thing. I would estimate that as many as 20%-30% of the total WW figure no longer work.

iv) Nintendo - they are likely to release a Wii II before it hits that level. 

...

Then again, if Nintendo really *can* make this the "must-have" living room gadget (primarily for non-gamers), anything could happen. 

it would be really hard to beat the PS2 sales record the competition is much tougher and it's harder for a console to last 7-8 years or longer now even for the xbox360 or ps3. i know sony said ps3 will last 10 years but in reality, we all know it's not gonna happen

By far.... this discussion is the most constructive of the rest I have read. Keep it up guys...

It's got a chance but sales have to increase a lot, i.e. production has to ramp up and demand stay high. (I mean it's allowed to stop selling out in every store, but sell through has to be high.) Don't know if demand would stay that high to justify 20-30 million per year. But that's how it would do it.

There's no way that the Wii will sell anywhere near 120m units without a major console revision. Here are a few reasons: #1. Hardware. Everyone says graphics don't matter, but they do. I feel the reason that the Wii has done so well, is that the graphics curve of which people adopt to, is rather slow. Those that had a PS2 will notice somewhat of a upgrade to the Wii (albiet very small). 2 years from now, the gap between the 360/PS3 offerings and the Wii offerings is going to be monumental. Yes, the PS1 beat the N64, a superior system in hardware, but it had a far more advanced optical drive it utilized the heck out of. #2. Games. Alot of 3rd party devs are going Wii, thats true, but we still haven't seen a single developer decide to make any major game Wii-exclusive. No RE5, DMC 4, MGS 4, FFXIII, KH3, and so on. The Wii can't really survive for 5+ years ala the PS2 without garnering a few major franchises on the Wii as either exclusives or the lead platform for a multi-plat game. #3. Competition. Microsoft and Sony have invested nearly 10 billion USD into this generation. Despite sales, and everyones complainings here, both the 360 and PS3 have unique offerings that the Wii does not. The PS2 started with the lead, had the lead due to entire 3rd party support, and kept the lead. The Wii is having to start from the beginning. In the end, I feel that the 360 and PS3 will sell well enough preventing the Wii 1 from getting the kind of numbers that some delusional fanboys think it will. #4. Revisions. In the end, we all know and believe the Wii will sell great. However, I do feel, as I always have, the system is vastly underpowered, and in 2008 and 2009, will start feeling the heat from the advanced games of the 360 and PS3. The Wii's graphics and abilities are far behind, and Nintendo will have to catch up at some point with a hardware revision, thus eliminating the possbility of this Wii to do what you think it will. Will the Wii family of systems become a huge brand? Yes. I think that if you compared the years of PS2's lifespan (2000 to 2008), to an 8 year Wii lifespan with a Wii 2, your going to have very close numbers. However, it'll take 2 consoles for Nintendo to garner that kind of sales, albiet in the same time frame.

i put in other post, if China, Rusia and India to convert in new markets this generation, dont care any numbers of the playstation 2, the sky will be the limit to the wii, for his price and inovation, this countries have a lot of middle class people, the motor of the consoles success.

Lol. None of those countries have the ability to buy a major number of $200 or highr video game systems. China, the wealthiest of the 3 you mentioned, only has an average income of $6,800 per family, per YEAR. India and Russia are lower. Yes, there are tons of people in those countries, but when there is a low rate of people to TVs in that country (an obvious pre-requisite of a system), the chances of them selling well is pretty slim. Obviously, we'll see rapid growth in those 3 countries, but we MIGHT see 10m systems total sold in those 3 countries.

 :) well the world economy move so fast you know :), i am a world economy fan and china and india have very interesting numbers of growth, right now are the allowed countries of the finances in the world, but for now only have to wait if this market to be a reality or not.