The Wii will not outsell the PS2 for several reasons:
i) Increased competition - MS & Sony will not let it do so. If the Wii becomes a run-away success for years, in 3-4 years they will simply release direct competitors.
ii) Hardware iterations - the PS2 had a couple of iterations. I don't think the Wii will have any.
iii) Reliability - the most important, and biggest reason. I'll be interested to know how people still have an original, working PS2 from 2000. I have gone through 3 of them (i.e. 2 breaks - all read head issues) - and Sony does NOT make repairing them an easy thing. I would estimate that as many as 20%-30% of the total WW figure no longer work.
iv) Nintendo - they are likely to release a Wii II before it hits that level.
...
Then again, if Nintendo really *can* make this the "must-have" living room gadget (primarily for non-gamers), anything could happen.
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