Monster Hunter 3 is a game that has at best, slightly less potential than Super Smash Bros Brawl in Japan in sales, but could land far from Brawl.

So worldwide I say between 600 000 and 4 000 000, but probably less than 2 000 000. Lifetime sales, that is.

 No worry. I visit this site pretty often... I'll be here to verify our little bet.

The game will be a million seller but it wont be that successfull . MHF got its popularity as a free-time , outdore game , while this isnt possible with a home console version . Also , development cost will be bigger and the game will probably bomb in the US and EU just like every one of them before , especially because its not a softcore game ( maybe if it would be called Monster Hunter Party :P ) .

Again , I repeat , it will sell well on the Wii ( at least the first instalment ) but Im more than positive that before or afther Tri we will either see a new PSP MHF game , or a port of Tri . The game is way to successfull to not be ported to the PSP .

Also , the real question is how big legs will the game have , because the PSP versions have huge legs , and while many Wii games are having great legs , Im not shure that MH3 will have them , or even in best it will have PS2 like legs .

Everyone saying that I'm "silly", or a "fanboy", how do you go about predicting sales for a game?

Do you use previous game sales as a basis? Do you use install base? What do you use? Or do you just pull numbers out of your rear, and hope for the best.

So sue me for using past games sales, to predict a future trend. Will it happen? Who knows, but my prediction came off of the previous games in the series.

It's fine if someone says that FFXIII or MGS4 won't do well, because the previous entries have been "losing popularity", but god forbid I say the same for as huge of a game [in Japan] as Monster Hunter.

If anyone can give me a good way to predict sales without using install base and/or previous game sales, then I'd be more than open to change my prediction, but until then, I'll stick with my prediction of sticking to previous game sales to predict future game sales.

B-b-bu.. piracy?

All PSP fans have been SCREAMING about piracy being THE issue with PSP.
If a game can sell 2 million in a console with horrible software sales and sky-high level of piracy, it can sell 3 million on a console with solid (if not great) software sales.

Also, you say that because MH on PS2 sales sucked it will suck on Wii too? Sorry, but no.
[As many before me have said] The series has  become one of the biggest franchises in Japan.
Last but not least, it sold badly on the PS2 because it had no online mode (or if it had, PS2's online was almost non-existent).

It's like taking multiplayer from Mario Party and expect it to sell, not gonna happen.

/thread. 

So your basis for saying it's going to sell is that the popularity is growing.

It is!.... on the PSP.

Monster Hunter 2 did have online play, and it sucked... Much like online right now on the Wii does.

Don't get me wrong, I love the Monster Hunter Series, and I could see myself owning a Wii, solely for this game, but to believe that the game will sell well, because the PSP ones have sold well is very incorrect.  

Monster Hunter 2 launched in Japan after Monster Hunter Freedom launched on the PSP.  MHF launched in Dec of 05, and MH2 launched in February of 06.  Guess which one had the longer legs?  Monster Hunter Freedom.  So how has the series become "more popular", but a game came out after the "popular" MHF and sold less on PS2 than it did on PSP.  

Face it, the game is going to sell marginally better than Monster Hunter 2, but expecting anything close to PSP numbers, or above PSP numbers, especially with the Wii's install base, is very incorrect.

I put Monster hunter 3 at 1 million tops.  If it does anything more than that, I'll be very surprised, and eat crow, but my prediction is off of factual numbers, not saying "it will sell more, since the series is popular".

So again I ask, how do you predict the sales of a sequel if you don't use the past games as an indication?

Sales above 500k would be great for MH3 (Japan only)
In the current generation only one 3rd party developer, SE, sold more than 500k copies of a game (Dragon Quest Sword) to a non handheld.
And I think, MH3 will likely sell more copies than MH2 on the PS2.

@DMeisterJ 

I posted why i believe the game will sell just as good (if not more) than the PSP versions. Even saying that Wii's online is as horrible as PS2's is silly.

How about a bet? I think the game will sell more than 1 million copies in its first two weeks. You in?

Using the Wii's online as a reason why the game is going to sell is very "lawl-worthy". 

I would bet, but ban-bets are no longer honored.  But I will assure you, that this game will sell nowhere near a million in it's first week.