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Forums - Nintendo - Monster Hunter Wii

hunter_alien on 06 April 2008
Stever89 said:

Well I think you both have a point, and should meet in the middle. Course, DMeisterJ said that a million wasn't out of the question, which I think is pretty good. I can't see how you too are having a "fast paced" discussion about how well it's going to do when you both think it's going to do over a million in Japan (at least, that's what I've gotten from both of your posts).

DMeisterJ has a point that the game wasn't popular on the PS2, and so it's likely that it won't be as popular on the Wii as it is on the PSP. Zen has a point that now that it's more popular because of the PSP version, it'll be a better hardware pusher and sell more than the PS2 versions.

DMeisterJ, I would say looking at PSP sales, knowing that it's more popular, which is a fact, one could make the prediction that it'll now sell better on the Wii because of the increased popularity. Course one could also look at sales on the PS2, which weren't as good as the PSP version, that is a fact, and say it won't sell decently. So both of you are basing your numbers on FACT.

So the real question here is, what are your predictions for LT sales in Japan, Zen and DMeisterJ? Because you guys keep talking about "bashing numbers" but I see no numbers from you two, besides the one talk of it selling more than a million from DMeisterJ (if I read that post correctly).

I'll start the "negotiations." Due to the increased popularity of the Monster Hunter games due to the PSP games (for whatever reason for the increase popularity), the Wii version is likely to outsell the PS2 version, because of an increased fanbase. But due to the portability of the PSP games, and how much more attractive, and possibly fun, that makes the game, the Wii version most likely will not match sales from the PSP.

Looking at sales of the Monster Hunter games from the PS2 and PSP, which can be seen here, the results are pretty interesting. First off, the order of releases (based off release in Japan):

  • Game - Platform - Sales (NOTE: Japan only)
  • Monster Hunter - PS2 - .28 million
  • Monster Hunter G - PS2 - .23 million
  • Monster Hunter Freedom - PSP - 1.03 million
  • Montser Hunter 2 - PS2 - .61 million
  • Monster Hunter Freedom 2nd - PSP - 1.72 million
  • Monster Hunter Freedom 2nd G - PSP - .86 million after one week

What's interesting is the boost the PS2 version got after the release of a PSP version. Will you still argue that the PSP versions don't help the PS2/Wii versions? Looking at these sales (and the bump the PS2 version got after the PSP version), I'd say it should easily do a million on the Wii in Japan.

I hope that settles it. If not, continue on. Just don't rip any holes into the universe.


 That is true , but you forget , again 2 important thins : when MH2 was released , the PS2s install base was much higher to what the Wii will have . Also , on the Wii 1st party games have great legs , but its not the same with every 3rd party game . An lets dont forget PSP MH game rely on great legs . Also , MH is not a casual game like M&S so the audience may not be 100% there for a game like this ... but this are just my thaught , so think all that you want ...



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routsounmanman on 06 April 2008
hunter_alien said:
Stever89 said:

Well I think you both have a point, and should meet in the middle. Course, DMeisterJ said that a million wasn't out of the question, which I think is pretty good. I can't see how you too are having a "fast paced" discussion about how well it's going to do when you both think it's going to do over a million in Japan (at least, that's what I've gotten from both of your posts).

DMeisterJ has a point that the game wasn't popular on the PS2, and so it's likely that it won't be as popular on the Wii as it is on the PSP. Zen has a point that now that it's more popular because of the PSP version, it'll be a better hardware pusher and sell more than the PS2 versions.

DMeisterJ, I would say looking at PSP sales, knowing that it's more popular, which is a fact, one could make the prediction that it'll now sell better on the Wii because of the increased popularity. Course one could also look at sales on the PS2, which weren't as good as the PSP version, that is a fact, and say it won't sell decently. So both of you are basing your numbers on FACT.

So the real question here is, what are your predictions for LT sales in Japan, Zen and DMeisterJ? Because you guys keep talking about "bashing numbers" but I see no numbers from you two, besides the one talk of it selling more than a million from DMeisterJ (if I read that post correctly).

I'll start the "negotiations." Due to the increased popularity of the Monster Hunter games due to the PSP games (for whatever reason for the increase popularity), the Wii version is likely to outsell the PS2 version, because of an increased fanbase. But due to the portability of the PSP games, and how much more attractive, and possibly fun, that makes the game, the Wii version most likely will not match sales from the PSP.

Looking at sales of the Monster Hunter games from the PS2 and PSP, which can be seen here, the results are pretty interesting. First off, the order of releases (based off release in Japan):

  • Game - Platform - Sales (NOTE: Japan only)
  • Monster Hunter - PS2 - .28 million
  • Monster Hunter G - PS2 - .23 million
  • Monster Hunter Freedom - PSP - 1.03 million
  • Montser Hunter 2 - PS2 - .61 million
  • Monster Hunter Freedom 2nd - PSP - 1.72 million
  • Monster Hunter Freedom 2nd G - PSP - .86 million after one week

What's interesting is the boost the PS2 version got after the release of a PSP version. Will you still argue that the PSP versions don't help the PS2/Wii versions? Looking at these sales (and the bump the PS2 version got after the PSP version), I'd say it should easily do a million on the Wii in Japan.

I hope that settles it. If not, continue on. Just don't rip any holes into the universe.


That is true , but you forget , again 2 important thins : when MH2 was released , the PS2s install base was much higher to what the Wii will have . Also , on the Wii 1st party games have great legs , but its not the same with every 3rd party game . An lets dont forget PSP MH game rely on great legs . Also , MH is not a casual game like M&S so the audience may not be 100% there for a game like this ... but this are just my thaught , so think all that you want ...


Once again, install base is not that important to such popular games.You cannot expect Final Fantasy XIII to bomb although PS3 install base is a dwarf in Japan.

I won't even comment in the 3rd parties don't have legs on Wii cause RE4, RE:UC, Lego Star Wars, GH3 and others may get really mad.

To conclude, games with so much hype like Monster Hunter is enjoying now in Japan will do well no matter the platform / install base / heck even quality. Even the crappy DQ:S is the most successful third-party current generation console game in Japan due to its name and only.

Monster Hunter fans will gobble MH3 up like there's no tomorrow and even buy a Wii just for it if they lack one at the game's release. Also, it's almost a given that the game will be bundled and push much hardware as well.

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DMeisterJ on 06 April 2008
Me said:
DMeisterJ said:
Monster Hunter 2 launched on a userbase of 20 million with sales of 357k.

On a userbase probably at 1/3 of the size when MH3 launches this year, how much does anyone expect it to sell?

Exactly - thats why Resident Evil 4 on the Wii will never catch PS2 sales, oh wait it will.  And as somebody said the Wii controls may ruin it, have you ever played a Capcom Wii game?  they have utilized the Wii controls so well, one thing we can be sure of is this game will be high quality and will play well so if it doesn't succeed then it wont be due to the quality of the game.

 Unless as KOW says and it has a crap online mode


 You're comparing a critically acclaimed game, to a game that has a horrible average score according to gamerankings and metacritic.

 

RE4 sells because it's an awesome game, MH games get horrible ratings from every website.  That is also a difference.  And where your comparison fails.

Show me a game that is rated horribly outselling a game on a system with a bigger install base, then I'll take my comment back.



SlumsofOhio on 06 April 2008

To compare MHF to the Console version of MH is somewhat dumb. To use it as a basis on how well the console game should sell makes no sense. MHF is popular because of the WLAN connectivity through the PSP. As a handheld, it's easy for a group of kids to get together and play MHF, (like in school, kids can join each other during lunch or any other time and play a couple of missions). MH3 will have online, but it doesn't have that WLAN ad-hoc connectivity. If the game was to be released on the DS, the comparisons would make sense.

Although MH3 will be a success in Japan, claiming it would do MHF type numbers is rediculous. I will make a prediction and say in Japan alone it will reach at or around 675k lifetime.



                                   

Stever89 on 06 April 2008

That is true , but you forget , again 2 important thins : when MH2 was released , the PS2s install base was much higher to what the Wii will have . Also , on the Wii 1st party games have great legs , but its not the same with every 3rd party game . An lets dont forget PSP MH game rely on great legs . Also , MH is not a casual game like M&S so the audience may not be 100% there for a game like this ... but this are just my thaught , so think all that you want ...

The audience might not be completely there, but that's why it'll be such a system mover. All those PSP fans who are waiting for the "next MH game" will go out and buy a Wii simply to play MH3. Of course not all of them will, and that's why I don't think it'll do the 1.7 million that the last PSP game has done so far in Japan, but that's why I think it'll probably open with about 400-600k first week, and then hit a million lifetime. 

Show me a game that is rated horribly outselling a game on a system with a bigger install base, then I'll take my comment back.

You asked for it.

  • Deal or No Deal (DS) - Rating on GameRankings: 22% - Lifetime Sales - 300k
  • Zoo Tycoon (DS) - Rating on GameRankings: 45% - Lifetime Sales - 1.34 million
  • Doshin the Giant (GC) - Rating on GameRankings: 67% - Lifetime Sales - 140k

All these games beat out (handily) a game called Killer 7 for the PS2 (and GC). Killer 7 got a 70% and a 77% on GameRankings for the PS2 and GC versions, respectively. And Killer 7 (as my source said) was either seen as the "game of the century" or a complete disaster. But it only managed to sell a few thousand copies worldwide (see source). I'm sure there are some other examples, but unfortunately our database numbers don't include many PS2/Xbox/GC games (especially the sucky ones), so it's hard to know what some poorly rated games sold on those systems. That's why I picked two DS games and the one bad GC game that I could find sales numbers for. Either way, it does what you asked, to find a (more than one actually) game that is rated horribly outselling a game on a system with a bigger install base (that has a decent rating). So will you take your comment back?

And besides, if we're looking at two MH games, MH2 for the PS2 and MH3 for the Wii, and both get so-so reviews, shouldn't they sell similar? And since the PSP version probably has increased the MH fanbase and popularity (see my last post in this thread), couldn't we assume that even with a smaller userbase, it could sell on par, if not well above the PS2 versions? That and by the time the MH3 is released, the Wii should have about 10 million users in Japan, which is only half that of the PS2 when MH2 was released. And given the new increased popularity, it should see slightly better sales first week (though not on par with PSP versions), and should manage a million lifetime, though it won't be on par with PSP MH sales. 

And @ SlumsofOhio, I'm not sure who is claiming it will do MHF type numbers, we're debating whether it will do better than the PS2 version because of the increased popularity of the MH series thanks to the PSP version. And my last post showed that, possibly and very likely, the PSP sales helped the PS2 version, by doubling it's sales from the first game. So I'll still say my prediction is about 500k first week, and then a million lifetime, in Japan only.



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kylohk on 06 April 2008

When it comes to Europe, I'd definitely buy it. I love games where you go around slashing enemies to death (e.g. Tales of Symphonia). The motion controls are certainly going to make the actions even more real and brutal, and this is something I like!



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ZenfoldorVGI on 06 April 2008
Stever89 said:
I was hoping one of you would respond to my post, but since it's fallen out of the hot topics, perhaps you don't realize I posted? So here's a nudge back up to the top.

The fast paced discussion comment was made because we both posted about 4 times each in the span of 60 seconds.

 

That said, I think we came to terms. I am just now seeing your comments. Yeah, in the end, we agreed on a lot. 



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ZenfoldorVGI on 06 April 2008

I'll say this on install base. Games sell relatively to how many games are out on the system. At this point, all next gen systems are game starved. That's why the PS3 sales of DMC4 can match PS2 sales of DMC3. Because there is literally nothing else to buy on the PS3 for many consumers, and more will buy it.

If this is still relatively true for the Wii when the game is released, I don't see why it would have trouble selling much better than its unpopular PS2 counterpart.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

trestres on 06 April 2008

MH3 will sell better than the Ps2 games cause the popularity of the series has grown a lot. It will land in the 1,3-1,5 million in Japan only.

People saying this wont sell but MGS4 will sell 8927342893 million in Japan must be kidding, you sound like 3 year old kids, when you say Wii hasnt got the userbase to do such numbers.... check PS3.



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StarcraftManiac on 06 April 2008
trestres said:
MH3 will sell better than the Ps2 games cause the popularity of the series has grown a lot. It will land in the 1,3-1,5 million in Japan only.

People saying this wont sell but MGS4 will sell 8927342893 million in Japan must be kidding, you sound like 3 year old kids, when you say Wii hasnt got the userbase to do such numbers.... check PS3.

= Win!



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