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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Switch has sold 1.5m units (Superdata)

Alkibiádēs said:
twintail said:

 

No, you just arent bothering to read.

"Sales seem slightly ahead of the Wii U". 

Yeah, I can read just fine. 

Yeah BUT he never said sales were "bad" that is pretty much putting words in his mouth. He made some good points regarding the PSP etc, other systems launched in March and did great as well. That is what I got out of it.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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TheBlackNaruto said:
Alkibiádēs said:

"Sales seem slightly ahead of the Wii U". 

Yeah, I can read just fine. 

Yeah BUT he never said sales were "bad" that is pretty much putting words in his mouth. He made some good points regarding the PSP etc, other systems launched in March and did great as well. That is what I got out of it.

The context of the reply doesn't really match the comparison though, Switch is the successor to Wii U and was being compared to it, in this regard they have a point in that outselling the Wii U's launch in a period that is quiet when the Wii U itself launched in the period that in recent gaming eras is the most fruitful gives the Switch a good advantage as in one week it has sold half of what Wii U sold in its first year with out the help of the holiday period.



This is pretty expected I think. The numbers could be 20-25% higher perhaps if they had more on hand to get into stores. I'm not 100% sure what the holdup is, could be a number of things, suppliers of batteries, screens, PCBs, who knows. Given how easily the first batch sold, obviously more could have sold if they were available.

Now the truly interesting thing will be how it plays out from here. How long they stick to $299 with no game. I think it's overpriced for what it is (IMHO), especially for those who don't care whatsoever that it's portable. I had a 3DS, and even that was something I rarely took anywhere, because I already carry a laptop most places, and my smartphone, so another device to lug around is not ideal. I'm busy, and having game time pop up is extremely rare when I'm out and about. Obviously if I had a long bus/train ride in my commute it might be different. As it is, I drive a long way to and from here and there, and I spend that listening to audiobooks and podcasts. Can't (shouldn't) game and drive lol.

So it was marketed much more smartly than the WiiU, which was a textbook example of how NOT to market a console. Even the infamously rough start to Xbox One was far superior to the launch of WiiU, the name of WiiU, the lack of any 'headliner' type game for WiiU's launch (no mainline Mario, no Zelda, no Kart, no Smash, no Metroid, pretty much a wasteland for launch, at a pretty substantial price.

So WiiU launch :

Price 2/10

Game Selection 2/10

Marketing 0/10

vs Switch Launch

Price 2/10 (this doesn't affect the hardcore fans, which also bought PS3 at $599, Xbox One at $499, etc, but which aren't 'mass market success' type prices)

Game Selection 5/10 (Zelda BOTW, yes it's cross-gen port-up, but a real new Zelda never hit WiiU, and I imagine many Zelda fans and nostalgia types who remember Ocarina/etc might be some that jumped in for that ONE game)

Marketing 7/10

$299 gameless I think won't fly for the holidays, and will really hold them back from momentum moving forward. $249 with a game could move the needle a bit, but $199 is really what they need to hit, game or no. PS4 Slim and X1-S will be $199 most likely this holiday season, as they're already de-facto $250 w/game if one is willing to look. Yes, the Switch is portable, but an expensive portable is not a great long-term plan either. $200 is a magic price barrier for consumers that they should aim for.

It has already been confirmed with de-lidding and die examination that this thing has a vanilla Tegra X1 Maxwell in there, so the thing will absolutely suffer from 3rd party support in the AAA league. Games will either be missing (most of the time), or incredibly downgraded ports in the event that a port is even made. As mediocre as the raw GPU and CPU power are for the Switch, what's even worse relatively speaking is the memory bandwidth. 25.6Gbps. Why is this bad? Well, for one thing, that's the EXACT memory bandwidth of the PS3, which launched ELEVEN FREAKING YEARS AGO.

How does this compare?

PS3 25.6Gbps
X360 22.4Gbps (+ tiny 256Gbps eDRAM)
Wii 1.9Gbps (lol)
WiiU 12.8Gbps (+ 32MB eDRAM at ~500gbps)
PS4 176Gbps
PS4 Pro 218Gbps
Xbox One 68.3Gbps (+ 32MB SRAM at 204Gbps)
Xbox One S 68.3Gbps (+ 32MB SRAM at 219Gbps)
Xbox Scorpio (???)

Given that, we're not going to be seeing games like Red Dead 2017, Mass Effect Andromeda, Call of Duty, Battlefield, GTA6, Shadow of War, etc on Switch. Even games like Fifa, Madden, etc, will be downgraded versions that look somewhere between WiiU and Xbox One 2013 levels (and given the lack of bandwidth, probably on the low side of that scale to be honest).

That's NOT the end of the world, but it means that the library will need huge support from Nintendo and Japanese devs AND a good mass-market price. They need to be chasing the GB and DS formula, not trying to take on PS4/X1, which will be a failure for sure. Nothing can make the Switch a AAA multiplat box. It's just not competitive. Let's put it this way : if Switch launched in 2013 against PS4/X1, it would have been pretty weak even then. In 2017 against massive libraries, experienced devs, fine tuned online support and established friends lists, it's just .. not that kind of device.

The paid online thing to me is a mistake IMHO, even if the price isn't exorbitant per se. They won't be stealing customers from Sony or MS, but they CAN win people over as a companion gaming device, and lowering the cost and convenience barriers as much as possible would help.

It'll be interesting to see. They need to keep an eye on things though. The instant supply catches up, they need to watch the flow. Once these things start to sit on store shelves and weekly sales are starting to sink low, they need to realize that there are a very limited number of people overall willing to pay $299 for a gameless console. People that want mobility will be the easiest sells.

Also in the future they need to think hard about getting a dedicated home version out there for a really low price. Tegra X1 is ancient and should be dirt cheap. The ram they're using would be embarassed to be seen even on a potato $59 video card, the storage is miniscule, etc. Even today a $99 version without a screen would probably STILL be profitable for them. Right now it would be counterproductive while they soak the diehard fans, but as they go down the line they need to keep up with things to keep the userbase growing steadily.

People stop buying in big numbers at $299, lower the price to $249 and throw a game in.
People stop buying in big numbers at $249 bundle, bring out a $199 SKU.
People stop buying in big numbers at $199, lower to $179 with a new game.
And around that time, also bring out a $129 screenless version, along with a new smaller all-in-one handheld version that is about 3DSXL sized.



Wii sold more than 100 million units. What third party AAA titles did it get?



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Switch: 0307-6588-7010 | New 2DS XL: 2037-2612-6964

MacBook Air (Mid 2017) | iPhone SE | Apple Watch Series 3

At the end of the day, people buy the hardware to get to the games. If Nintendo keeps the flow of great games coming, Switch will do fine, if not stellar. It's already at a great starting point, selling numbers comparable to Wii in many places and it didn't have the luxury of being released during the holiday season, not to mention selling at a higher pricepoint than Wii without a pack-in game.

I think games like Mario Kart Deluxe, Skyrim, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, and Xenoblade 2 this year alone along with a peppering of indies throughout will be enough to keep this train rolling for the rest of the year.



 

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twintail said:

So launch period is contextually OK, but overall interests levels in the device leading into launch, and after, and software quality and presence is contextually not? Because those are pretty clear advantages for the Switch over the WiiU, and perhaps even more important.

This reply makes no sense what so ever because anyone can see the context of the post he made and tbh your argument about why the Switch did better than the Wii U doesn't change a thing because fact is at this moment he's still right Switch launched outside of the holidays and is ahead of Wii U in allignment of their launches this is something you can't dispute in any way right now.

Your argument is basically a no shit sherlock as Switch had to have some advantages launching after Wii U a commercially low selling platform and launching outside of the holiday season with two powerful platforms already in the market that have skus around the same price or cheaper. Wii U launched in the holiday period after one of the best selling consoles of all time with only previous gen platforms around that were weaker and on their last year so it itself had factors and advantages in its favour so everything equals itself out.



any updates on if Nintendo sent out more stock



Ka-pi96 said:
Tryklon said:
Wii sold more than 100 million units. What third party AAA titles did it get?

It had FIFA and COD, two of the biggest franchises there are...

Those two were the responsible for the Wii s success? Really?



PS4: Tryklon  Steam: Tryklon

Switch: 0307-6588-7010 | New 2DS XL: 2037-2612-6964

MacBook Air (Mid 2017) | iPhone SE | Apple Watch Series 3

Tryklon said:
Wii sold more than 100 million units. What third party AAA titles did it get?

Wii sold 100m because it got the ultra casuals super interested in motion controls. Which is why it had explosives sales which died out really fast. It would have done similarly even if it had nothing but the handful motion control games like wii sports. Don't try to use it as an example of what happens when a console doesn't have third party AAA titles.



Right, so, those 100 million were just a fad and a mistake. Right...



PS4: Tryklon  Steam: Tryklon

Switch: 0307-6588-7010 | New 2DS XL: 2037-2612-6964

MacBook Air (Mid 2017) | iPhone SE | Apple Watch Series 3