I think it will be holiday 2019. Three years for the mid gen upgrade, three years for the next generational leap. Would also fit in nicely with their dev cycles. GG can lay the groundwork for Horizon 2 to be on PS5 in 2020, Bend will transition after Days Gone, Santa Monica after God of War (which will hopefully mean at least two releases on PS5). I also think one of Last of Us II or Death Stranding will be a cross gen game at PS5 launch.

Five years is fine. Original PS4 will be discontinued and the Pro will take its place. All sounds plausible for 2018, MS are morons for releasing way before.

if so, it wouldnt be a PS5, would be like a PS4 pro elite.
Just a true 4k@60 PS4, just what PS4 pro supose to be.

I do not expect PS5 earlier than 2020.

Even the just released NVidia Geforce 1080 Ti with a TDP of 250W and a 700$ Pricetag only reaches 10 Teraflops

For comparision's sake: A Radeon HD 5870 is with it's 2.7 TF more powerful than a PS4 - yet it released over 4 years before the PS4, the PS4 Pro is about as powerful as a 7970 Ghz Edition released in early 2012 and the Scorpio will be about as powerful as a Radeon 290X released in Fall 2013. As you can see, there's a 4 year gap between the release of a PC Graphics card and a console of the same power. There's just no way a console released in 2020 could afford (both in price and heat production/dissipation) such a strong console without becoming bigger than the XBO and more expensive than the PS3 at launch. Even a 10TF console is thus only due for 2021 going by the 4 year rule.

Will there be 7nm chips in 2018? are they affordable then? My guess is nope.

That is why its a 2019 or 2020 thing.
For the next gen, you ll want to start it with a 7nm chip, to get that edge on the PS4pro / Scorpio, without spending to much to do so.

The RSX in the PS3 was adapted out of a 80W TDP NVidia 7800GT, the PS GPU in the PS4 out of a 150W TDP Radeon HD 7850. 150W is pretty much the maximum a console could take in total, hence why such a big jump was possible between the PS3 and the PS4. But since we reached the limit here in such a small case as a console has, it cannot grow as fast anymore. Compounding to this issue is also the fact that production nodes shrink at a much slower pace since the 32/28nm process, which in the past made such jumps much easier as smaller processes mean less energy needed and thus less heat.

While your way of thinking seems sound to someone less tech versed, it can't stand against a deeper analysis. Like I said before, it's feasible, but not without a bigger case than the XBO has and a pretty hefty pricetag attached to it.

Lol jesus, why are people taking this thread so seriously? This is just one random analysts opinion, and these gaming analysts are always fucking wrong. People are acting as if Sony said this and it's true.

~18 months away for PS5? I don't see it myself. We were certainly seeing rumours of PS4/Xb one, or rather of their code names 18 months from release. I don't see that sort of leakage doing the rounds at the moment.

I think in early 2018 the code name of the PS5 will be leaked.

Personally with how long the 7th gen lasted I feel like I've only really just got started with PS4. I don't really want to consider buying another console until 2020.

I think we just have to accept that the days of the old console cycle are gone. Sony and Microsoft are going to make serious changes to the way the business runs, to give consumers a greater variety of options in the console space. It is very possible that Sony will release a new console in 2018, or 2019, or 2020. Whether it is called PS5 or PS4 Premium, that is the real question to me. Game development time just keeps getting longer and longer, so the idea of keeping the old 5 or 6 year console cycle starts looking goofy when games are taking 5 or more years to make.

I don't see any reason why Sony should try and muddy the PlayStation name by releasing a PS5 in the time frame people keep talking about. We are not going to see a generational leap in games in a 10 - 12TFLOP device, with 16GB of RAM. Every PlayStation generation so far has seen about a 10 to 12x increase in CPU and GPU power, and a 16x increase in RAM. We should expect a baseline PS5 model to be ~20TFLOPS with 128GB of RAM. That would keep it exactly in line with what we saw from PS1 to PS2, PS2 to PS3, and PS3 to PS4.

To me a 10 - 12 TFLOP system with 16GB of RAM sounds like a perfect final revision to the PS4 APU tech. It would be able to offer PS4 games at native 4K/30 to native 4K/60, while greatly improving image quality. It would not be able to massivly change the dynamics of how games are made. This system could hit in 2019 or 2020, and let the real PS5 arrive in 2023 at the earliest.

However like I said, we may just have to give up the old ways. It may be that generations don't really mean a massive leap, where we see games that just couldn't be done on the previous gen, or that feel amazing. New generations may end up just being a thing that moves the masses along, keeping them happy, because new numbered devices are coming. I am down for whatever, but ideally, I want to see what is best for the industry.

bring it on