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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo expects to sell 35 million Wii in the USA

ssj12 on 22 May 2007
TheSource said:

Hmm..they have sold 2.7 millionish in the USA so far..3.05 millionish in North America..So...32 million over the next 4-5 years in the USA?

I imagine they hope it goes something like this in the USA:

2006 - 1.1 million

2007 - 7 million

2008 - 7 million

2009 - 7 million

2010 - 5 million

2011 - 3 million

2012 - 1.5 million

 


I think your numbers are off.. I doubt it would be 7m 3 years in a row. Maybe more like 6 in 2007 8 in 2008 and 7 in 2009



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Erik Aston on 22 May 2007
mrstickball said:
Am I the only one that doesn't think they'll hit 35m in the US? I am sure they will hit 35m, but not with the current Wii model. Like always, I'm anticipating a new Wii around 2010 or early 2011. I'd say 35m is about right though, maybe less, between Wii 1 and Wii 2. I'm thinking 25.5m by late 2010, a Wii2 launch in early 2011, and strong sales to get it close to 35m. IMO, I don't really see how the Wii can really get uber-sales like 35m, when it's obvious that the PS3 and X360 will increase (sales wise) versus what the GC and Xbox did last gen. The consoles did 45/15/15 (assuming PS2 sells a bit more), for a total of 75m. I doubt the 360 and PS3 will sell less than 20m each, so that'd mean the market stagnated if the X360 only tripled it's base, and the PS3 got sub-N64 levels. Something's gotta give, and at some point, I think it'll be Nintendo.

I'm going to look at America as a whole, instead of just the US... 

In terms of shipments, last gen will end up about 52/16/13 for PS2/XB/GC for America. That might be conservative on PS2, as they've shipped nearly 48 million already.

This gen, I see no way PS3 will sell 20 million. N64 only sold 20 million with Mario, Mario Kart, GoldenEye and Ocarina. The ONLY exclusive game PS3 has of that size is Gran Turismo. And their price gives 360 and possibly Wii the advantage on non-exclusives. They may only manage about 14 million.

360's pathetic April has me questioning how much they can sell in America. I see it picking up starting in September and staying strong in 2008, but giving way to the Wii and posting worse sales in its 5th and 6th years, ending up with about 25 million.

Wii, on the other hand, is only now starting to meet demand... maybe. Its April sales of 360K for US were higher than any April PS2 ever had, and sales may be picking up more in May. It would have to sell really weirdly to end up under 40 million. And total, I think 60 million is doable. Like I said, PS2 has shipped nearly 48 million already, and Wii is trending better, and is designed specifically for market expansion far more than PS2 was.

Growth from 81 to 99 million consoles overall for the generation is totally possible.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 May 2007
mrstickball said:
Am I the only one that doesn't think they'll hit 35m in the US? I am sure they will hit 35m, but not with the current Wii model. Like always, I'm anticipating a new Wii around 2010 or early 2011. I'd say 35m is about right though, maybe less, between Wii 1 and Wii 2. I'm thinking 25.5m by late 2010, a Wii2 launch in early 2011, and strong sales to get it close to 35m. IMO, I don't really see how the Wii can really get uber-sales like 35m, when it's obvious that the PS3 and X360 will increase (sales wise) versus what the GC and Xbox did last gen. The consoles did 45/15/15 (assuming PS2 sells a bit more), for a total of 75m. I doubt the 360 and PS3 will sell less than 20m each, so that'd mean the market stagnated if the X360 only tripled it's base, and the PS3 got sub-N64 levels. Something's gotta give, and at some point, I think it'll be Nintendo.

 Why would Nintendo release a new Wii in 2010?  And I can see the PS3 selling less than 20 million easy, $299 is the highest most of the mass market will pay (In fact PS2 didn't hit massive sales until it went below $200), and PS3 won't be near that until the very end of this generation



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

TheSource on 22 May 2007

Has anyone ever considered that Wii could shrink the world videogame market even as it dominates it?  This may sound crazy, but the industry has seen tremendous growth over the last 20 years, and I think disruptive technology needs to be watched.  I don't think what I'm about to write will happen, but I don't think it is completely out there either.  Here are the steps that bring about Wii domination in a smaller videogame industry.

1) Wii hardware sells very well for at least 18 months worldwide

2) Developers need to make as much as money as possible and flock to the fastest growing/biggest userbase.

3) Wii software sales profits become equal or greater to 360 and/or PS3 sales once Wii passes/ gets even with 360 worldwide.

3) 85-90% of Wii games from 3rd parties focus on motion-sensing control schemes, because they think only those games have a chance to compete with Nintendo's titles.

4) With the vast majority of 3rd party exclusives going to Wii, a number of gamers who bought GC/Xbox/PS2 do not upgrade because they want 3rd party traditional games, but dislike most motion control games.

5) Nintendo keeps 2/3 of GC users, brings in 40 million new gamers, and steals 30 million casual gamers from the 150-160 million gamers it did not have last generation.  Sony and Microsoft (combined) convince 40-60 million users to upgrade from last gen, and add in 10-15 million new users each.

6) Worldwide totals end up like this: Wii 85 million, 360 50 million, PS3 35 million.  That is alot of new gamers, however, I think Wii domination may create 30 million+ lapsed gamers for those who dislike the direction gaming is heading.  For comparison, last generation (PS2, GC, Xbox) was 170 million - meaning that the market shrunk considering population growth.  In theory, a future disruptive device could pick up the lapsed gamers Wii may create. 



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ckmlb on 22 May 2007

I'm expecting a new Wii model to to generate new hype to sell their consoles again.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 May 2007
ckmlb said:
I'm expecting a new Wii model to to generate new hype to sell their consoles again.

 Why?  Its sales are beyond what they can supply



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Rath on 22 May 2007
mrstickball said:
Am I the only one that doesn't think they'll hit 35m in the US? I am sure they will hit 35m, but not with the current Wii model. Like always, I'm anticipating a new Wii around 2010 or early 2011. I'd say 35m is about right though, maybe less, between Wii 1 and Wii 2. I'm thinking 25.5m by late 2010, a Wii2 launch in early 2011, and strong sales to get it close to 35m. IMO, I don't really see how the Wii can really get uber-sales like 35m, when it's obvious that the PS3 and X360 will increase (sales wise) versus what the GC and Xbox did last gen. The consoles did 45/15/15 (assuming PS2 sells a bit more), for a total of 75m. I doubt the 360 and PS3 will sell less than 20m each, so that'd mean the market stagnated if the X360 only tripled it's base, and the PS3 got sub-N64 levels. Something's gotta give, and at some point, I think it'll be Nintendo.

But this time the market has changed, they arent aiming at traditional gamers anymore. If the wii truley converts non-gamers into wii-gamers this estimate might be conservative, if it fails to do that then this estimate may be way over what it will get.



n00b on 23 May 2007

Yeah, I remember when they said they were going to sell 50 million GameCubes by March 2005, too. LMAO Nintendo LMAO



Avinash_Tyagi on 23 May 2007
n00b said:
Yeah, I remember when they said they were going to sell 50 million GameCubes by March 2005, too. LMAO Nintendo LMAO

 7.31 million in little over 6 months



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

n00b on 23 May 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
n00b said:
Yeah, I remember when they said they were going to sell 50 million GameCubes by March 2005, too. LMAO Nintendo LMAO

7.31 million in little over 6 months


 Think you mean more like 3 million. So, they should hit that number in about what, mid 2012? lol, good luck with THAT.