Has anyone ever considered that Wii could shrink the world videogame market even as it dominates it? This may sound crazy, but the industry has seen tremendous growth over the last 20 years, and I think disruptive technology needs to be watched. I don't think what I'm about to write will happen, but I don't think it is completely out there either. Here are the steps that bring about Wii domination in a smaller videogame industry.
1) Wii hardware sells very well for at least 18 months worldwide
2) Developers need to make as much as money as possible and flock to the fastest growing/biggest userbase.
3) Wii software sales profits become equal or greater to 360 and/or PS3 sales once Wii passes/ gets even with 360 worldwide.
3) 85-90% of Wii games from 3rd parties focus on motion-sensing control schemes, because they think only those games have a chance to compete with Nintendo's titles.
4) With the vast majority of 3rd party exclusives going to Wii, a number of gamers who bought GC/Xbox/PS2 do not upgrade because they want 3rd party traditional games, but dislike most motion control games.
5) Nintendo keeps 2/3 of GC users, brings in 40 million new gamers, and steals 30 million casual gamers from the 150-160 million gamers it did not have last generation. Sony and Microsoft (combined) convince 40-60 million users to upgrade from last gen, and add in 10-15 million new users each.
6) Worldwide totals end up like this: Wii 85 million, 360 50 million, PS3 35 million. That is alot of new gamers, however, I think Wii domination may create 30 million+ lapsed gamers for those who dislike the direction gaming is heading. For comparison, last generation (PS2, GC, Xbox) was 170 million - meaning that the market shrunk considering population growth. In theory, a future disruptive device could pick up the lapsed gamers Wii may create.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
