Nintendo expects to sell 35 million Wii in the USA

[Erik Aston]

mrstickball said:
Am I the only one that doesn't think they'll hit 35m in the US? I am sure they will hit 35m, but not with the current Wii model. Like always, I'm anticipating a new Wii around 2010 or early 2011. I'd say 35m is about right though, maybe less, between Wii 1 and Wii 2. I'm thinking 25.5m by late 2010, a Wii2 launch in early 2011, and strong sales to get it close to 35m. IMO, I don't really see how the Wii can really get uber-sales like 35m, when it's obvious that the PS3 and X360 will increase (sales wise) versus what the GC and Xbox did last gen. The consoles did 45/15/15 (assuming PS2 sells a bit more), for a total of 75m. I doubt the 360 and PS3 will sell less than 20m each, so that'd mean the market stagnated if the X360 only tripled it's base, and the PS3 got sub-N64 levels. Something's gotta give, and at some point, I think it'll be Nintendo.

I'm going to look at America as a whole, instead of just the US... 

In terms of shipments, last gen will end up about 52/16/13 for PS2/XB/GC for America. That might be conservative on PS2, as they've shipped nearly 48 million already.

This gen, I see no way PS3 will sell 20 million. N64 only sold 20 million with Mario, Mario Kart, GoldenEye and Ocarina. The ONLY exclusive game PS3 has of that size is Gran Turismo. And their price gives 360 and possibly Wii the advantage on non-exclusives. They may only manage about 14 million.

360's pathetic April has me questioning how much they can sell in America. I see it picking up starting in September and staying strong in 2008, but giving way to the Wii and posting worse sales in its 5th and 6th years, ending up with about 25 million.

Wii, on the other hand, is only now starting to meet demand... maybe. Its April sales of 360K for US were higher than any April PS2 ever had, and sales may be picking up more in May. It would have to sell really weirdly to end up under 40 million. And total, I think 60 million is doable. Like I said, PS2 has shipped nearly 48 million already, and Wii is trending better, and is designed specifically for market expansion far more than PS2 was.

Growth from 81 to 99 million consoles overall for the generation is totally possible.