I am always seeing threads about when will Sony or Mircosoft have their next price cut, but I wanted to look at it from a differant angle. We all know the price cuts are coming at some point this year, and I believe Wii $199, PS3 $299/$399, 360 $249,$299,$399 is a very likly scenario going into September (unless Nintendo still can't meet demand in which Wii remains $249).  Now often I here people say well if one drops the other drops and it is all the same, but I don't quite go along with that theory. So what I would like is to hear what everyone thinks the effect of this next wave of price cuts will cause, and why. I'll start.

 Personally I have yet to hear anyone, whether it be at work, in a store, on the internet, or anywere else I go ask when will the Wii get a price cut. From my perspective, people have already accepted the Wii at 250 as an affordable price. Based on how things are going now I really don't see anyone going wow Wii got a 50 dollar price cut now I can afford to get one. To me at this point in time I see no way in which a price cut would spur Wii sales to a new level. Ifeel nearly the same way about the Xbox 360. I believe that most of the people that are interested in the 360 and what it has to offer have already slapped down the cash. I have heard a few hardcore gamers saying they will think of picking up a 360 at 249, but outside of forums I rarly hear anyone talking 360 and its price.

 With that said I believe PS3 has the most to gain from a price cut. I have seen plenty of people on forums claming they just want a PS3 at 299 that is Backward compatable, further more, I have heard countless people asking about when the next price cut will be at work, and in the electronics section at local retailers. From what I can see PS3 is the only console people are watching the price on. It makes sense to that the only console without an affordable 2XX price would stand the most to gain from finally reaching that point. 

The ps3 needs $100 cut by the end of the year. They can do this gradually by cutting the price by $50 two times during the year. Should continue to improve in all regions although Japan is a question mark.

The wii doesn't need to reduce the price until the ps3 comes down to $299 then they can do a $50 price cut. Should continue to do very well in the short term although Nintendo can't take their current success for granted.

As far as the 360 goes it seems it is destined to come last in Europe and Japan although they should continue to do very well in America and I would say a $50 price cut and GTA4 bundle should do the trick.

Nintendo can't get a pricecut. They have production problems with Wii's, games and the additional stuff. A Pricecut would only bring them more trouble at this point. Besides why would they want a pricecut, the Wii is still selling like crazy.

If PS3 wants victory in Europe, they'll need to do a pricecut in September, around the time the big titles come. And they need to introduce a new model with BC in Europe. Pricetags at 249 and 349 and, combine it with Dual Shock 3 and a nice game and it will certainly bring succes. Allthough I expect the introduction of Dual Shock 3 around the time of Metal Gear Solid IV release.

Right now the Wii could be priced at $150 and probably still make a profit(don't quote me though). But it would be silly for Nintendo to do this as its a way of stimulating sales and they don't need to do that.

But yes you are right. the PS3 has the most to gain. The 360 is struggling, the wii is sold out most of the time. Its the PS3 that could sell more consoles if it reduces in price.

If $199 is still considered the sweet spot and the price under which most consoles are bought then perhaps the Wii has the most to gain. It's going to be a while before the other guys can reach that price and if the Wii gets any more momentum it's going to be completely untouchable in all territories.

PS3 will but the Wii won't hat that price for a while still

The console that has the most to gain from a pricecut is the PS3.
It wouldn't make much difference for the Wii or the Xbox, because they are already affordable and as you said, the consumers who wants those consoles probably bought them already.

@KBG29:
Beware though! There are Pachter followers out there that strongly believe that because the dollar is too weak, Nintendo divert its consoles to other regions.
So if you are to believe them, there's no chance Nintendo will drop the price on the Wii in NA, as long as the Euro is so strong against the dollar. Also, they won't increase shipment to NA according to these people, as they already are shipping below 50 % of their production to NA, and even though it's more than other regions, it doesn't matter because it doesn't count (see their unbeatable logic?).

For the other price drops, I can't tell you what they think. Logic would make them believe that Sony and MS are doing the same, and diverting their shipment to Europe to make more profit. But given the state of their logic, I still wonder.

So beware these people, they will flame you.

The answer to your question is more complicated than you think.
When a console goes beyond the price of the Wii, that doesn't mean it will sell more, as the Wii proved. If people still see more value in the Wii, the effect will be that consumers will believe the other products are failures and are victim of fire sales.

Nintendo pricecut likely won't come till next March/April. By the time they start catching up with demand in the US Christmas will boost them again. Why not take the extra 50 dollar per unit? That really adds up.

As for otherwise.  Yeah, i'd say PS3 gets the most.  It'll be at the 360's pricepoint in your scenario. 

My prediction would have to be that the PS3 has the most to gain since I don't think the Wii will get a price cut this year. It certainly won't be getting a price cut before Wii Fit hits and if Wii Fit has as huge of a an impact as many people believe it will I don't think Nintendo will be considering a price cut until at least next April....again that is IF Wii-Fit is all its cracked up to be which I believe it most likely is.

We might see a price cut in Japan or Europe, but even that I doubt since they are more likely to re-allocate those units to the US where they will easily sell than drop the price (a price drop is permanent, re-allocation is a far better move strategicly.

edit: PS - I'm still not convinced the next PS3 price drop will be $100, I'm betting $50 or less.