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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 84.59m by March 31st, Forecast for Next Fiscal Year is 25.5m

Switch to overtake on vgchartz notes:
First written as of February 13th.
Heavily updated April 10th.

Switch recently outsold GBA (16.96) then SNES (17.17) in Japan.

Switch recently outsold PS1 (9.04), Xbox 360 (9.16), and Wii (9.48) in rest of world.

Switch recently outsold 3DS (75.92) globally.

Switch needs 100,000 sales to outsell PS3 in North America.
(achieved 20th of February)

Switch needs 420,000 sales to outsell 3DS in Europe.
(on track to overtake during 20th of March). Achieved.
Switch needs 660,000 sales to outsell GBA in Europe. (on track for April 3rd).
Achieved April 3rd/Easter.

Switch needs 1.08 million sales to outsell NES in Japan. (1st May?)
Accelerated April 24th.

Switch needs 2.46 million sales to outsell PSP globally. (17 April?)
(accelerated to April 3rd).
Achieved during week before April 3rd/Easter.

Switch needs 2.88 million sales to outsell GBA globally. (1st May?)
(accelerated to April 17).
Achieved April 3rd/Easter.

Other consoles the Switch is expected to overtake this next year or so.

During 2021 in North America: Xbox One (31.95*) and NES (33.49).
At 30.82 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in North America: PS4 (37.93*) and GBA (40.39).
Possibly even PS1 (40.78).

During 2021 in Europe: PSP (24.41) and Xbox 360 (25.87).

During H1 2022 in Europe: approaching, but not reaching PS1 (31.09).

During 2021 in Japan: PSP (20.01), PS1 (21.59), PS2 (23.18), 3DS (24.64*).
19.22 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in Japan: continuing to sell well.

During 2021 in rest of world: DS (12.43), PS3 (12.53). 10.96 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in rest of world: PSP (15.26).

During 2021 globally: Xbox 360 (85.80), PS4 87.41). 82.43 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 globally: Wii (101.64), PS1 (102.50).

So you can see that Switch sold well through that period with my Easter estimates being very conservative and Monster Hunter taking over well there. Mid April through until August there were shortages of Switch last year so I’d expect Switch to beat those hardware numbers.

Hype for Pokemon Snap is strong for the end of April.
There was an expected slow May and early June and that’s fine. We need to switch off for a bit.
However Rune Factory 5 steps into that gap alongside Miitopia.

Mario Golf in late June after post-E3 hype settles.
Monster Hunter Stories 2 in July.
Zelda: Skyward Sword in July.

Possibly a slower August and September focused on indies as people start to hold out for new hardware or buy older titles for birthdays and Christmas, and that’s ok. Supply would be tight with old hardware so they can slow burn through that inventory and then discount after new model releases.

October new model. 15% better performance over better battery model for same battery life.
Helps loading times and hitting 30FPS spec slightly. Slight resolution bump for games with adaptive resolution.
Possible OLED screen with higher brightness, better blacks and more colour/lighting accuracy.

4K 60FPS compatible dock so Switch to solve the 4K TV issue.

All similar to the Xbox One vs Xbox One S upgrade.

Things look bright for Nintendo and they shouldn’t crash too far from the peak during 2022.

2023 will be a quiet year, but they can then launch the Nvidia Ampere 8nm model during late 2023 or early 2024 (probably March 2024) as a new system that supports new games. Or supports 60FPS, higher resolutions and Nvidia DLSS low latency AI upscaling for 4K with old games.
The DLSS will take major patches and effort and only work with bigger games using certain engines, but the rest should be easier updates.

So there’s good potential roadmaps and the Switch brand should stay strong for a long time.



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when are Nintendo's annual updated numbers supposed to release?



@heavenmercenary01 May 6.



ireadtabloids said:

Switch to overtake on vgchartz notes:
First written as of February 13th.
Heavily updated April 10th.

Switch recently outsold GBA (16.96) then SNES (17.17) in Japan.

Switch recently outsold PS1 (9.04), Xbox 360 (9.16), and Wii (9.48) in rest of world.

Switch recently outsold 3DS (75.92) globally.

Switch needs 100,000 sales to outsell PS3 in North America.
(achieved 20th of February)

Switch needs 420,000 sales to outsell 3DS in Europe.
(on track to overtake during 20th of March). Achieved.
Switch needs 660,000 sales to outsell GBA in Europe. (on track for April 3rd).
Achieved April 3rd/Easter.

Switch needs 1.08 million sales to outsell NES in Japan. (1st May?)
Accelerated April 24th.

Switch needs 2.46 million sales to outsell PSP globally. (17 April?)
(accelerated to April 3rd).
Achieved during week before April 3rd/Easter.

Switch needs 2.88 million sales to outsell GBA globally. (1st May?)
(accelerated to April 17).
Achieved April 3rd/Easter.

Other consoles the Switch is expected to overtake this next year or so.

During 2021 in North America: Xbox One (31.95*) and NES (33.49).
At 30.82 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in North America: PS4 (37.93*) and GBA (40.39).
Possibly even PS1 (40.78).

During 2021 in Europe: PSP (24.41) and Xbox 360 (25.87).

During H1 2022 in Europe: approaching, but not reaching PS1 (31.09).

During 2021 in Japan: PSP (20.01), PS1 (21.59), PS2 (23.18), 3DS (24.64*).
19.22 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in Japan: continuing to sell well.

During 2021 in rest of world: DS (12.43), PS3 (12.53). 10.96 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in rest of world: PSP (15.26).

During 2021 globally: Xbox 360 (85.80), PS4 87.41). 82.43 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 globally: Wii (101.64), PS1 (102.50).

So you can see that Switch sold well through that period with my Easter estimates being very conservative and Monster Hunter taking over well there. Mid April through until August there were shortages of Switch last year so I’d expect Switch to beat those hardware numbers.

Hype for Pokemon Snap is strong for the end of April.
There was an expected slow May and early June and that’s fine. We need to switch off for a bit.
However Rune Factory 5 steps into that gap alongside Miitopia.

Mario Golf in late June after post-E3 hype settles.
Monster Hunter Stories 2 in July.
Zelda: Skyward Sword in July.

Possibly a slower August and September focused on indies as people start to hold out for new hardware or buy older titles for birthdays and Christmas, and that’s ok. Supply would be tight with old hardware so they can slow burn through that inventory and then discount after new model releases.

October new model. 15% better performance over better battery model for same battery life.
Helps loading times and hitting 30FPS spec slightly. Slight resolution bump for games with adaptive resolution.
Possible OLED screen with higher brightness, better blacks and more colour/lighting accuracy.

4K 60FPS compatible dock so Switch to solve the 4K TV issue.

All similar to the Xbox One vs Xbox One S upgrade.

Things look bright for Nintendo and they shouldn’t crash too far from the peak during 2022.

2023 will be a quiet year, but they can then launch the Nvidia Ampere 8nm model during late 2023 or early 2024 (probably March 2024) as a new system that supports new games. Or supports 60FPS, higher resolutions and Nvidia DLSS low latency AI upscaling for 4K with old games.
The DLSS will take major patches and effort and only work with bigger games using certain engines, but the rest should be easier updates.

So there’s good potential roadmaps and the Switch brand should stay strong for a long time.

Out of general curiosity, why do you use the date that the numbers are published rather than when they are through? What I mean is you say April 10, which is when the numbers for the week ending March 27 came out. Just Wondering



Can't wait for the figures to arrive this Thursday. Projecting 29-30M for LTD (between 4.5-6 million for this quarter), although I'm optimistically hoping for shipment data to beat VGC's sell-through of 5.96 million. Regardless, I'm hoping that I'll be adjusting my numbers up rather than down this quarter, fingers crossed!



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Its out.



We always come back to this.



That’s a good point.  I don’t think I put much thought into that.



UPDATE: May 6th, 2021

Switch family - 84.59m (+4.72m this quarter)
-Switch - 69.89m (+3.54m)
-Switch Lite - 14.70m (+1.18m)

28.83m units of hardware and 230.88m games were shipped during the recently ended fiscal year. Nintendo forecasts 25.5m units of hardware and 190m games to be shipped during the fiscal year ending March 2022.

A good four years have passed since Switch has launched (49 months to be exact) and exceeding 100 million units lifetime is merely a formality at this point. In a similar way, beating PS4 sales is doubted by only a few people anymore, so the community has turned their eyes towards the next best targets, the DS and PS2.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/244614/will-switch-outsell-ps2/

The thread reads like so many before it, with Switch's lifespan being expected to end soon for no good reason among other flawed reasoning. What seems new is that it's contested whether or not a Switch revision should be counted towards Switch sales, but then again, the same thing occured on a smaller scale when the Switch Lite was announced about two years ago. But this matter remains as simple now as it was back then: It's a sure thing that Nintendo won't treat their upcoming revision as a different platform, so the only logical thing to do is count everything together just like it was with all other consoles and their respective revisions in the past.

As for the question if Switch will outsell the PS2, it's more a matter of when rather than if. Nintendo still has so many options left to maintain a high sales momentum, be it revisions, price cuts or the release of compelling first party software. All that is backed up by a healthy software pipeline from third party developers along with a monopoly in the portable console market and Switch's unique value proposition of being a home console and handheld console in a single device.

We are still years away from Switch passing the PS2, but this isn't really any different as with so many other milestones in the past. Switch is good to go.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: May 6th, 2021

Switch family - 84.59m (+4.72m this quarter)
-Switch - 69.89m (+3.54m)
-Switch Lite - 14.70m (+1.18m)

28.83m units of hardware and 230.88m games were shipped during the recently ended fiscal year. Nintendo forecasts 25.5m units of hardware and 190m games to be shipped during the fiscal year ending March 2022.

A good four years have passed since Switch has launched (49 months to be exact) and exceeding 100 million units lifetime is merely a formality at this point. In a similar way, beating PS4 sales is doubted by only a few people anymore, so the community has turned their eyes towards the next best targets, the DS and PS2.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/244614/will-switch-outsell-ps2/

The thread reads like so many before it, with Switch's lifespan being expected to end soon for no good reason among other flawed reasoning. What seems new is that it's contested whether or not a Switch revision should be counted towards Switch sales, but then again, the same thing occured on a smaller scale when the Switch Lite was announced about two years ago. But this matter remains as simple now as it was back then: It's a sure thing that Nintendo won't treat their upcoming revision as a different platform, so the only logical thing to do is count everything together just like it was with all other consoles and their respective revisions in the past.

As for the question if Switch will outsell the PS2, it's more a matter of when rather than if. Nintendo still has so many options left to maintain a high sales momentum, be it revisions, price cuts or the release of compelling first party software. All that is backed up by a healthy software pipeline from third party developers along with a monopoly in the portable console market and Switch's unique value proposition of being a home console and handheld console in a single device.

We are still years away from Switch passing the PS2, but this isn't really any different as with so many other milestones in the past. Switch is good to go.

Well said. When the Switch price cuts start sales will blow up again. I know for a fact when the OG Switch drops to $200 we would buy another one to replace a Lite. And when the "Pro" eventually comes out I will be buying that for myself and my OG will be given to one of my sons to replace the other Lite.

As for "years away", I don't think so. Likely 30m this year (if they can keep up with demand), another 25+ the next, and then 15+ the following (7th year) would put it right at the PS2 sales figures (still think this number is inflated). Switch will most likely past the PS2 by March 2024, that's less than 3 years away.

Last edited by scottslater - on 06 May 2021

Nintendo with the Switch: