Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 61.44m by June 30th, Forecast for Fiscal Year 2020 Remains at 19m

ZhugeEX said:
I like how this was written by Nintendo corporate.

This made me laugh far more than it should have.



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Tagging for later.



Positivity regarding the Switch on VGC? I'm already in love.
I like your points. I really like your points. Now I'm running before the negativity hits once again



Anything can happen, the casual market is unpredictable, but I can't see people not buying a PS4/Xbox to buy a Swtich.

My guts tells me that it will be a flop.



Tim and The Princes...

Some news to backup your claims Rol.Could mean nothing since we have no raw numbers, but it is still good news.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2017/01/15/gamestop-sells-out-of-nintendo-switch-pre-orders?abthid=587bf06333e910774400000a



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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Based on what WE know so far, thé console wont sell more than 20M maximum



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

I want to address one point really.

Do we actually know for a fact (has it been confirmed) that the Switch actually is replacing their handheld console release? Are we certain that one wont come or that the 3DS doesn't just keep getting updated hardware to the point that it's almost like a next gen handheld?



Since I am at work I will only respond to point 4 Western Devs.

The reason the sales has no impact on Nintendo consoles is because over the last 3 and a half generation Nintendo gamers have been deserting Nintendo for various reasons. It all slowly started with N64 and every generation more and more left so therefore sales of 3rd party games clearly will go down as only the pure loyalist Nintendo only gamers want only Nintendo games.

Ever generation it is become more and more hard to justify a Nintendo console when you get older and time limited and just can't be F'ed owning so many consoles.

If Nintendo were able to get full 3rd party Western support then after a couple gens you watch those sales would go up as the kids have not shifted to PS or XBOX. They would be playing and the next round of kids and their kids would be playing.



 

 

Good points. The best part for me is that you used sales data and common sense to cover your points most of the time. Thank you for that!



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

RolStoppable said:

I have a long history of saying that Nintendo shouldn't suck up to third parties because they don't need them; if third parties make unrealistic demands, then Nintendo is better off without them. I also have a history of saying that Nintendo's ninth generation home console does not need to be much more powerful than the Wii U.

And no, you couldn't argue the points that I've made, because you are already displaying struggles with the basics. You judge how many Nintendo fans remain by pointing towards Wii U sales, completely ignoring the 3DS. And you imply that the claim that the Wii sold because of Nintendo games is outrageous; may god help us all.

Ok... lets try this.....

I judge how many nintendo fans remain by referencing the wiiU. Yes thats tru, and I won't fault you for jumping at that cause i didnt take the time to elaborate. As far as nintendo goes, you have their home console and their handheld console divisions. Lets start with handhelds.

Its easy looking at the 3DS and say but it sold 60M. But to do that and not mention that in sold only half as much as the DS would be to not see the full picture. The 2ds competed with eth PSP and still hadily won. The 3DS competed with the vita and also won. but the full picture is that there was in increasing presence in mobile gaming on smartphones that had taken up most of that handheld market and still does till this day. Proof is in the sales difference between the DS and the 3DS. And nintendo had always been dominant in the handheld space. If nintendo made a dedicated handheld gaming console today, no matter how good it is.... it will sell less than the 3DS, and we have smartphones to thank for that.

Now consoles, its easy looking at nintendo home consoles and say but look at the wii...... again, to do that will be to not look at the full picture. The wii didn't sell 100M because it was a software behemoth. It sold the way it did because of motion gaming and the rapid artificial growth nintendo achieved with it.  The nintendo faithful were no doubt part of that 100M, but the majority of that number were the casuals. No matter how bad things get, if this weren't true; there is no reason you go from having 100M proper or at least half supporters to having only 13M consoles sold in over 4 years.There has never been such a drop in user base from generation to generation from a particlular platform holder in the history of video games. 

So that tells us that the 13M we saw on the wiiU (and don't forget a lot of those people probably also bought a 3DS, represent whats left of the nintendo faithful. Of which would probably comprise aboutr 70% of that 13M.  This isn't e just talking shit, look at the N64, GC and WiiU.... 32M, 21M , 13M respectively.... what does that tell you?

This is why I believe that the NS will sell around 35M-40M lifetime. The handheld market will shrink again the same way its been shrinking due to smartphones. But they will sell more than they would have sold a typical home console because now their "home console" is also a handheld. They won't however be able to have one person buying a handheld and then a home console cause now its one device. 

Volterra_90 said:

So, why did the Wii sell so well then?

I bolded it for you in my response above.

edited: changed typo 2DS to DS.