How will Nintendo Switch sell over 25 million? 

If i want photorealistic graphics i can just leave my house and walk arround for a while.

I am just hearing how good this game or that game is lookikg. Graphics dont matter. If it would, no one would play WOW.

Well, the Wii U sold nearly 6 million at a higher price point in the first year of its release with no real "heavy hitters" besides a 2D Mario title. I can't imagine the Switch doing worse than that with Zelda, Splatoon, Mario, FE Warriors, and whatever else we're not aware of yet.

Secondly, the problem with that games list is that only three of those give people a reason to specifically buy an X-Box One, as opposed to a PS4 or a PC. In other words, people who own a PS4 or PC are not going to buy an X-Box to play Mass Effect or RDR, and given the PS4's larger install base, if they don't own any of those consoles, they're more likely to go with a PS4. Meanwhile, Forza and Crackdown are not exactly system sellers in the same way that Zelda or a full blown 3D Mario are, and while Halo can be, it's impact is mitigated by the fact that there is already a full blown Halo for the system, and nearly everyone who was holding off on buying an XBO for that will have already bought the console for 5.

The question is, then, how many people are willing to drop an additional $400 to play games in native 4K. Given the relatively limited success of the PS4 Pro, I'm not sure there's a big enough market for Microsoft to capitalize and make any kind of serious money. I suspect Switch will end up closer to 8 million units sold in 2017, and similar numbers for the XBO.

I was an X1 owner and the platform has barely even been mentioned much this year, I can't even think of anything upcoming for the platform that would gather more attention than MS' rivals. Mean while both Sony and Nintendo actually have a thought out plan to do just that.

Even have you seen the E3 reservations for this year? MS has the smallest space of the 3 platforms while the other 2 platform holders have reserved 3 times the area, that's not an encouraging sign.

I can see the ratio being closer to 2 to 1 in Xbox's favor, but it's too early to tell how well the switch will do.  I don't expect Switch to pass 5 Million this year but, we need at minimum some sales #s after the launch when the Switch becomes readily available to predict with more than just gut instinct.  The Xbox One seems to have almost no hype this year, but it's low price will still keep it selling in US & UK.

No, Wii U sold around 3.5 Million in it's first 12 months.

All my close friends are gamers, we all want to play the new Zelda. But nobody purchased the Switch.

We convinced ourselves that we can find cheap Wii U consoles in maybe 2 or 3 months and then play the game.

So basically, we are not seeing enough improvement between both versions of the game to justify a brand new console.

DS+Wii had 40m-50m+/years.

There's more chance of Nintendo selling 24m to XB's 8m than the other way round.

That's next to impossible. Nintendo's Q2 2014 financial report has Wii U at 7.29 million lifetime WW. Wii U would have to have more than doubled its first year sales in six months to meet that mark. Additionally, Nintendo's Q4 2012 financial report claims Wii U sold 3.45 million in 2012 alone, so the console would have to have sold 500 K or less over a 10 month span in order to wind up at 3.5 million for its first 12 months. Wii U didn't have strong legs, but it was nowhere near as bad as that.

VGSales Wiki has Wii U at 6.17 million after a full year, which admittedly isn't verified by anything official, but it's a much more reasonable number than assuming a console suddenly doubled its sales in half a year after only selling 500 K during the past 10 months.

It didn't destroy the competition - less than 20M sales between them over a generation.