I am Detective John Kimble! STOP WHINNING!

Who is your daddy and what does he do?

BTW I have 2 dollars on the lottery tonight ;)

http://johnkimblerap.ytmnd.com/

NPD and VGChartz both give data on how many consoles and games were sold in a month in NA, just like Famistu, MediaCreate, and VGChartz in Japan. Just last week MediaCreate (or Famistu) had the DS above the PSP, while VGChartz had PSP over DS. They're all sources of data, and give different perspectives on the look of the console market. I never say that NPD isn't accurate, I just say that it's unlikely that considerably more accurate than the other.

Also, NPD has massively undertracked the Wii, since recent NPD LTD numbers for the Wii at the end of 2007 had it at 7.38 million in US, add another (generous 15%) 1.1 million for Canada and others, and you get 8.48 million sold by the end of 2007. Link. But Nintendo in their fiscal reports said they shipped 8.85 million to NA by the end of 2007. Link. (scroll to the bottom) 400k in shippipng/retail? And that's if Canada is roughly 15% of US sales. We normally do 10% of US is Canada, meaning only about 800k was sold in Canada/Others, meaning there were nearly 700k on shelves or being shipped at the end of the year. But sales in Jan don't support that argument, since NPD and VGChartz had sales very low in Jan (and nothing close to 700k in Jan). Also, if you take Jan NPD + Feb NPD + NPD LTD 2007 + a little bit more for Canada sales, you only get 9.35 million, you don't get even close enough for the Wii to hit 10 million in NA by the end of March. When NPD March comes, and we add it to NPD LTD 2007, plus Jan NPD, Feb NPD, and March NPD, plus estimated 12.5% Canada, do you want to bet that it'll be off from Nintendo's fiscal shipments to NA by say, 250k? Want to ban bet? lol.

So either NPD is undertracking Wii (or not accurate), Nintendo is lying, or the Wii is no longer sold out in NA. Which would you like to argue about?

Edit: Forgot to add links.

Edit 2: Course, I'd like to point out that maybe Canada has grown in marketsize, meaning 10% is no longer viable. That's why I used 12.5% for Canada. Though I'd be willing to go to 15%. Unless there's somewhere that has Canada LTD sales so we can compare them with US sales and get a more accurate percentage.

@cool, Crisis Core must've given the PSP a boost, but PSP sales look normal to me.

A few obvious mistakes in your statements.

1... You automatically assume that every Wii shipped is one sold to customers. 400K in transit vs 8.5 million sold within a year is less than 5%. Hence very possible. I can't speak for other retailers, but In Canada, 2 biggest electronic retailers are constantly holding back their Wiis for their online store. Store also holds back HUGE amount of Wii (up to 20% of total Wii received by individual store) to fill their "rain check" items.

2... You are assuming Canada market is 10-15% of the market, which is a huge margin of error comparing to the less than 5% of error you are assuming NPD is mistaken by last fiscal year.

3... and your biggest problem, is putting VGC number in the same sentence as others like Famistu, MediaCreate, NPD. When VGC is tracking less than 5% while NPD is tracking more than 60%, it's almost statistically unfair to compare them both.

The wii will beat the PS3 unless something crazy happens in japan the wii will do better WW

 Actually, I think it has more to do with selling ads ;)

You need to read my post a little closer, I didn't automatically assume that every Wii shipped is one sold, I said some could be in transit. But 400k-700k, depending on Canada sales. Looking at previous months (by quickly googling NPD Canada), for Nov Wii US was 981k, and Nov Wii Canada was 82k, only about 8% of US's marketsize, and July numbers were 36k and 425k, about 8.5%. Also, this was at the end of the year, so I bet few retailers or Nintendo were holding back much stock.

And I dont know how long it takes to get from Asia to US, but if there were 400k, or 700k if using Canada = .1 * US, where are they? Through Jan and Feb NPD only has the Wii selling close to 800k (if you add 10% for Canada). Even if takes a month to get some supply to the US after the air shipping, shouldn't sales be much higher, at least a few hundred thousand? VGChartz had the same 979k for roughly the same period. NPD LTD for Wii 2007 was 8.1 million (10% for Canada), compared to 8.6 million for VGChartz. Since Wiis sell so fast in NA, I have to argue that ship almost equal sold, and 400k is simply too large of an amount, especially since sales per week for most of the year haven't been very high.

10%-15% for Canada has usually been very close, and looking at Nov and July 2007 sales for the Wii, it gives almost identical percentages, which were roughly 8.5%. Meaning we could be "overtracking (in a sense)" Canada, meaning NPD might be even a little more off.

Famistu and MediaCreate don't always agree, and while one said DS over PSP (either Famistu or MediaCreate), the other one had PSP over DS, just like VGChartz. Even two "respectable, accurate, with high marketshare tracking" had different orders of sales, and Japan is much smaller, and less diverse than the US, meaning it should be easier to track, yet they couldn't even agree. How do you expect VGChartz and NPD to agree?

For me, VGChartz is merely another opinion, and gives weekly data that I can look at for free. I won't argue that it's sample size is smaller and thus more prone to miscalcuations, but to say I can't use it in the same sentence as NPD/MediaCreate/Famistu, is just silly.

Have any predictions on what Nintendo will say for it's fiscal report, what NPD will say for March, and how they'll compare to each other and VGChartz? 

how is numerical tracking become "an opinion"? There is only 1 correct data and all the numbers are determined by who is close to the actual data.

Way too much assumption in your post, now you are factoring in air shipment time? More assumptions will only need to less accuracy data, especially from one with much less market tracking, A lot of are let to pure speculation.

>Have any predictions on what Nintendo will say for it's fiscal report, what NPD will say for March, and how they'll compare to each other and VGChartz?

I will say Nintendo Shipping number will be NPD number + 150K, Nintendo will once again ship out tons of it to meet their own fiscal quota.

How do you think NPD's number for PS3 and Xbox will compare to each other vs VGChartz' number?

Sorry, it's late, it should say "another option" or something like that. Something like "a second opinion," a place to compare sales numbers from different sources. I can't even remember what exactly it was trying to say.

But there is only one correct data, but how can you be sure what it is and who is closest? That's why I brought in the whole Nintendo official shipments. You then brought up units in shipment. I was merely trying to account for that. It doesn't have to be complicated. Almost 700k units are "in transit" at the end of 2007. By the end of Feb, according to NPD, those 700k units are finally sold to customers. 2 months to sell the 700k left over from the end of 2007, not including the time it actually takes to get to the US, and I don't think it's more than month. I'm going to say Nintendo will have about 10.25 million shipped to NA, while NPD won't even have the Wii at 10 million in NA yet, with it roughly at 9.75 million. 500k in the retail channel/shipping isn't too bad, but I still think it's a bit much, since that's nearly an entire month of sales according both VGChartz and NPD in NA, and I think even a item without supply issues would have only 500k max of supply at any given time, during a non-holiday or big release week. Except for when Microsoft stuffs the channel of course.

As for NPD's PS3 and 360 sales compared to VGChartz... well I don't know, since I haven't looked into it yet. Right now, VGChartz has PS3 and 360 within 3k of each other in March, 293k and 296k, respectively, and 492k for Wii. ThesimExchange has 318k and 303k for PS3 and 360, and 603k for Wii, and I don't think that includes Canada. We have another week, so it's still early to tell, but I think VGChartz is going to be close, since roughly another 125k (could be just about anything though) for Wii, 65k for PS3, and 60k for 360 (US only, not including Canada), and adding it to current US only sales, you get: Wii: 567k, PS3: 328k, 360: 326k. So I guess PS3/360 will be a tie, with almost equal sales, though both higher than thesimExchange. Wii will be lower than thesimExchange. I have a feeling that VGCHartz and NPD PS3/360 will be rather close, no more than +/-10%, but NPD Wii will be high because NPD is adjusting for low-balling Jan/Feb Wii sales. Which of the two (PS3 or 360) will come in first (or technically, second, or third if you count DS), is up in the air for me. It'll be a statistical tie most likely.

People were saying the same thing about Brawl.

Nintendo just needs to up production, dammit. :|