N/a numbers in

[kingofwale]

Stever89 said:

NPD and VGChartz both give data on how many consoles and games were sold in a month in NA, just like Famistu, MediaCreate, and VGChartz in Japan. Just last week MediaCreate (or Famistu) had the DS above the PSP, while VGChartz had PSP over DS. They're all sources of data, and give different perspectives on the look of the console market. I never say that NPD isn't accurate, I just say that it's unlikely that considerably more accurate than the other.

Also, NPD has massively undertracked the Wii, since recent NPD LTD numbers for the Wii at the end of 2007 had it at 7.38 million in US, add another (generous 15%) 1.1 million for Canada and others, and you get 8.48 million sold by the end of 2007. Link. But Nintendo in their fiscal reports said they shipped 8.85 million to NA by the end of 2007. Link. (scroll to the bottom) 400k in shippipng/retail? And that's if Canada is roughly 15% of US sales. We normally do 10% of US is Canada, meaning only about 800k was sold in Canada/Others, meaning there were nearly 700k on shelves or being shipped at the end of the year. But sales in Jan don't support that argument, since NPD and VGChartz had sales very low in Jan (and nothing close to 700k in Jan). Also, if you take Jan NPD + Feb NPD + NPD LTD 2007 + a little bit more for Canada sales, you only get 9.35 million, you don't get even close enough for the Wii to hit 10 million in NA by the end of March. When NPD March comes, and we add it to NPD LTD 2007, plus Jan NPD, Feb NPD, and March NPD, plus estimated 12.5% Canada, do you want to bet that it'll be off from Nintendo's fiscal shipments to NA by say, 250k? Want to ban bet? lol.

So either NPD is undertracking Wii (or not accurate), Nintendo is lying, or the Wii is no longer sold out in NA. Which would you like to argue about?

Edit: Forgot to add links.

Edit 2: Course, I'd like to point out that maybe Canada has grown in marketsize, meaning 10% is no longer viable. That's why I used 12.5% for Canada. Though I'd be willing to go to 15%. Unless there's somewhere that has Canada LTD sales so we can compare them with US sales and get a more accurate percentage.

 

A few obvious mistakes in your statements.

1... You automatically assume that every Wii shipped is one sold to customers. 400K in transit vs 8.5 million sold within a year is less than 5%. Hence very possible. I can't speak for other retailers, but In Canada, 2 biggest electronic retailers are constantly holding back their Wiis for their online store. Store also holds back HUGE amount of Wii (up to 20% of total Wii received by individual store) to fill their "rain check" items.

2... You are assuming Canada market is 10-15% of the market, which is a huge margin of error comparing to the less than 5% of error you are assuming NPD is mistaken by last fiscal year.

3... and your biggest problem, is putting VGC number in the same sentence as others like Famistu, MediaCreate, NPD. When VGC is tracking less than 5% while NPD is tracking more than 60%, it's almost statistically unfair to compare them both.