| kingofwale said: how is numerical tracking become "an opinion"? There is only 1 correct data and all the numbers are determined by who is close to the actual data. Way too much assumption in your post, now you are factoring in air shipment time? More assumptions will only need to less accuracy data, especially from one with much less market tracking, A lot of are let to pure speculation. >Have any predictions on what Nintendo will say for it's fiscal report, what NPD will say for March, and how they'll compare to each other and VGChartz? I will say Nintendo Shipping number will be NPD number + 150K, Nintendo will once again ship out tons of it to meet their own fiscal quota. How do you think NPD's number for PS3 and Xbox will compare to each other vs VGChartz' number? |
Sorry, it's late, it should say "another option" or something like that. Something like "a second opinion," a place to compare sales numbers from different sources. I can't even remember what exactly it was trying to say.
But there is only one correct data, but how can you be sure what it is and who is closest? That's why I brought in the whole Nintendo official shipments. You then brought up units in shipment. I was merely trying to account for that. It doesn't have to be complicated. Almost 700k units are "in transit" at the end of 2007. By the end of Feb, according to NPD, those 700k units are finally sold to customers. 2 months to sell the 700k left over from the end of 2007, not including the time it actually takes to get to the US, and I don't think it's more than month. I'm going to say Nintendo will have about 10.25 million shipped to NA, while NPD won't even have the Wii at 10 million in NA yet, with it roughly at 9.75 million. 500k in the retail channel/shipping isn't too bad, but I still think it's a bit much, since that's nearly an entire month of sales according both VGChartz and NPD in NA, and I think even a item without supply issues would have only 500k max of supply at any given time, during a non-holiday or big release week. Except for when Microsoft stuffs the channel of course.
As for NPD's PS3 and 360 sales compared to VGChartz... well I don't know, since I haven't looked into it yet. Right now, VGChartz has PS3 and 360 within 3k of each other in March, 293k and 296k, respectively, and 492k for Wii. ThesimExchange has 318k and 303k for PS3 and 360, and 603k for Wii, and I don't think that includes Canada. We have another week, so it's still early to tell, but I think VGChartz is going to be close, since roughly another 125k (could be just about anything though) for Wii, 65k for PS3, and 60k for 360 (US only, not including Canada), and adding it to current US only sales, you get: Wii: 567k, PS3: 328k, 360: 326k. So I guess PS3/360 will be a tie, with almost equal sales, though both higher than thesimExchange. Wii will be lower than thesimExchange. I have a feeling that VGCHartz and NPD PS3/360 will be rather close, no more than +/-10%, but NPD Wii will be high because NPD is adjusting for low-balling Jan/Feb Wii sales. Which of the two (PS3 or 360) will come in first (or technically, second, or third if you count DS), is up in the air for me. It'll be a statistical tie most likely.
