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Forums - Sales - Analyst: GTA IV may sell 5.8 mln week one

NJ5 on 01 April 2008

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but I'm tired and don't feel like reading much of the article. Is he talking about USA sales or worldwide?



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kingofwale on 01 April 2008

I'm going to go with 3-3.5 million on both PS360. I swear to god that half of the people on this forum are WAY more knowledgeable on subjects such as this than most of those so-call "analysts"



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selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
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Sullla on 01 April 2008

Since it's Pachter (who only deals with American/NPD sales) and Gamestop (which I don't think operates overseas) talking here, looks like it's America-only NJ5. Which of course makes the claims that much more dubious...



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NJ5 on 01 April 2008
Sullla said:
Since it's Pachter (who only deals with American/NPD sales) and Gamestop (which I don't think operates overseas) talking here, looks like it's America-only NJ5. Which of course makes the claims that much more dubious...

Here in Sweden there's EB Games which is the same chain as Gamestop I believe. But you're probably right...

Assuming that:

Halo 3's first week attach rate - 37%

37% of current American PS3+360 sales is precisely 5.8 million

(let's assume this is a coincidence)

That means that it will need almost as much first week attach rate as Halo 3 to attain this goal... It's possible, although my instinct tells me it will not happen.

 



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Lord N on 01 April 2008

5.8 million can be shipped the first week, but certainly not sold.

GTAIV won't sell more than 3 million its first week, and even that's pretty optimistic. Let's not forget that the previous installments of this franchise were released on a much more affordable system that was selling extremely well before their respective debuts. This really isn't the case with the PS3 or 360.

 

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tombi123 on 01 April 2008

I am going to go for 4.5M WW.



Legend11 on 01 April 2008

He's actually predicting sales to consumers. The $360 million he has mentioned before* and the $110 million he mentioned is for the sales revenue generated for GameStop (somewhere between 1.222 million and 1.833 million units sold depending on the sales distribution of regular and special edition SKUs).

When he originally made the prediction he expected around a 25% attachment rate. But considering the combined size of the 360/PS3 installed base by the time GTAIV launches the 5.8 million would be around 20-21% attachment rate.

*source:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9511&Itemid=2



NJ5 on 01 April 2008
Legend11 said:
He's actually predicting sales to consumers. The $360 million he has mentioned before* and the $110 million he mentioned is for the sales revenue generated for GameStop (somewhere between 1.222 million and 1.833 million units sold depending on the sales distribution of regular and special edition SKUs).

When he originally made the prediction he expected around a 25% attachment rate. But considering the combined size of the 360/PS3 installed base by the time GTAIV launches the 5.8 million would be around 19-20% attachment rate.

*source:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9511&Itemid=2

Not if he's talking about America only... See my post above.

 



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Legend11 on 01 April 2008
NJ5 said:
Legend11 said:
He's actually predicting sales to consumers. The $360 million he has mentioned before* and the $110 million he mentioned is for the sales revenue generated for GameStop (somewhere between 1.222 million and 1.833 million units sold depending on the sales distribution of regular and special edition SKUs).

When he originally made the prediction he expected around a 25% attachment rate. But considering the combined size of the 360/PS3 installed base by the time GTAIV launches the 5.8 million would be around 19-20% attachment rate.

*source:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9511&Itemid=2

Not if he's talking about America only... See my post above.

 


No he's talking WW numbers. He mentions Halo 3's WW first week numbers and attachment when he is comparing his expected GTAIV's first week numbers and attachment rate. He talks about a 25% attachment rate (in the link I provided) which makes no sense if he just meant North America (there simply aren't that many 360/PS3 consoles in North America).

mrstickball on 01 April 2008

I don't quite think GTAIV will ship 5.8m units week 1.

Has it even gone Gold yet? Halo 3 needed a solid month to print enough copies for it's first week shipments of ~4m units.

Chalk me up as skeptic. I see it shipping maybe 5m first week, with another 1m/wk until all orders/initial demand is met. The GTA series was never frontloaded. San Andreas, for all of what it sold, debuted with somewhere around 1.5m copies in the US for the first week or two.



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