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Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD predictions thread (who will win this months NPD?).

 

Who will win this months NPD?

Xbox One 54 19.78%
 
Playstation 4 199 72.89%
 
Wii U 14 5.13%
 
3DS 6 2.20%
 
Total:273
jason1637 on 17 December 2016
Aura7541 said:
jason1637 said:

1. Im speaking of the combined sales from April-Oct if we add up all the sales the XB1 did better than the PS4, and with the rumored numbers from May-Nov if we add up all the sales the XB1 is ahead of the PS4.

2. I wasn't aware the PS4 got a FF bundle. It hasnt been charting on Amazon and other retailers it hasn't been charting. But to casuals who are the people to  buy the most consoles this month a multi plat won't do much to convince them to get a PS4 over the XB1.

1. I think the conversation has already gone off the rails from your original claim that Amazon has been wrong in the latter half of this year. It's worth noting that YTD, the PS4 still has sold more than the XBO. If the year ended at November NPD, the PS4 would have won 2016, which also coincides with Amazon's 2016 rankings.

2. The FFXV PS4 bundle was really limited and only available at certain stores, I believe. It did sell out, so whatever number of those bundles was shipped, that was amount of those bundles sold-through. I also disagree with the second sentence. FFXV favors the PS4 way way more than the XBO. The ratio in the UK was approximately 80% PS4/20% XBO despite that the hardware ratio is nowhere close to those percentages. Based on Abdiel's assessments, the US will likely follow suit. If we look at the 2016 rankings on Amazon, the regular PS4 version is #13 while the PS4 Deluxe version is #49. Neither of the XBO versions are in the Top 100. If we look at hourly charts, the PS4 version is #5 while the XBO version is all the way back at #70.

The skewed distribution of FFXV sales will influence the word of mouth of both versions. Because considerably more PS4 owners have FFXV than XBO owners, the PS4 version of FFXV will inherently have larger word of mouth. Because of this, FFXV has a substantially larger chance of convincing someone to get a PS4 than convincing someone to get an XBO.

1. Like i said we cant put all our hope on Amazon because it has been wrong a lot recently.

2. FFXV will sell more on PS4 hand down but to a casual gamer that wants FFXV it won't be a deciding factor since its on both systems, and since the bundle is sold out already.



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ironmanDX on 17 December 2016

I see xbox winning... Just. No pro launch this month. 3ds will do incredibly well too with Mario and pokemon.



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

1. I said Amazon predicted the latter half of the year incorrectly because they had PS4 above the XB1 while for the last six months XB1 has outsold the PS4 overall. But for individual months they were still wrong in July, Aug, Sept, and Oct. They got Nov right so hopefully Dec right. I'm just saying that we have seen Amazon wrong a lot recently so we shouldn't put as much faith in them as we used to.

- This isn't making much sense. The PS4 won the months that Amazon predicted it did. I don't know where this combined sales idea came from, but it's obviously counter-productive to my point. As for faith in them, do the average and see how small those 4 months are compared to the bigger picture. You use VGC's data in discussions often enough - and they've been wrong, on average, far more than Amazon has been in the 8th gen. 

2. You said it had a bundle i just wasn't aware of it because it hasn't been charting ANYWHERE, not only on amazon but anywhere and i haven't seen it in any store either. This is the first time im hearing of a FFXV PS4 bundle.

- It was a joke. :p

3. Yeah the FF bundle should help PS4 sales.

 - Glad we agree.

- My take.

1. But the XB1 has also won months that the Amazon showed the PS4 would. When i use VGC numbers i never state is as fact but more as a possibility. Don't get me wrong i hope Amazon is right but im not putting as much faith in them anymore.



Aura7541 on 17 December 2016
jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:

1. I think the conversation has already gone off the rails from your original claim that Amazon has been wrong in the latter half of this year. It's worth noting that YTD, the PS4 still has sold more than the XBO. If the year ended at November NPD, the PS4 would have won 2016, which also coincides with Amazon's 2016 rankings.

2. The FFXV PS4 bundle was really limited and only available at certain stores, I believe. It did sell out, so whatever number of those bundles was shipped, that was amount of those bundles sold-through. I also disagree with the second sentence. FFXV favors the PS4 way way more than the XBO. The ratio in the UK was approximately 80% PS4/20% XBO despite that the hardware ratio is nowhere close to those percentages. Based on Abdiel's assessments, the US will likely follow suit. If we look at the 2016 rankings on Amazon, the regular PS4 version is #13 while the PS4 Deluxe version is #49. Neither of the XBO versions are in the Top 100. If we look at hourly charts, the PS4 version is #5 while the XBO version is all the way back at #70.

The skewed distribution of FFXV sales will influence the word of mouth of both versions. Because considerably more PS4 owners have FFXV than XBO owners, the PS4 version of FFXV will inherently have larger word of mouth. Because of this, FFXV has a substantially larger chance of convincing someone to get a PS4 than convincing someone to get an XBO.

1. Like i said we cant put all our hope on Amazon because it has been wrong a lot recently.

2. FFXV will sell more on PS4 hand down but to a casual gamer that wants FFXV it won't be a deciding factor since its on both systems, and since the bundle is sold out already.

1. Two times isn't enough to constitute "a lot".

2. Again, word of mouth is important. It can be a deciding factor for someone who's on the fence. Because the PS4 version sells significantly more, it will have significantly larger word of mouth. The "He has this thing. I want it, too" factor does influence sales, including hardware sales. 



ironmanDX on 17 December 2016

Poll has more votes for the WiiU than the much more likely 3ds!



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jason1637 on 17 December 2016
Aura7541 said:
jason1637 said:

1. Like i said we cant put all our hope on Amazon because it has been wrong a lot recently.

2. FFXV will sell more on PS4 hand down but to a casual gamer that wants FFXV it won't be a deciding factor since its on both systems, and since the bundle is sold out already.

1. Two times isn't enough to constitute "a lot".

2. Again, word of mouth is important. It can be a deciding factor for someone who's on the fence. Because the PS4 version sells significantly more, it will have significantly larger word of mouth. The "He has this thing. I want it, too" factor does influence sales, including hardware sales. 

1. Its 4 times not 2. 4 times is a lot because for the whole Q3 they have been wrong.

2. Well word of mouth usually happens between friends. Ig someone friend has a PS4 they will want one too, but if someone friend has an XB1 they would want one too. 



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

1. But the XB1 has also won months that the Amazon showed the PS4 would. When i use VGC numbers i never state is as fact but more as a possibility. Don't get me wrong i hope Amazon is right but im not putting as much faith in them anymore.

Yes, 4 months out of this year, Amazon indicated wrong. That isn't the latter half, though. That's where my initial confusion turned to curiosity.

The latter half Amazon said the PS4 will be #1 but the XB1 has been #1. It's not very complicated.



barneystinson69 on 17 December 2016
ironmanDX said:
Poll has more votes for the WiiU than the much more likely 3ds!

I remember when the Wii U had more votes than the XB1 even though it had 0 chance of winning. I then removed it from the poll, and people got super pissed, so I had to then add it back, and people continued to vote for the Wii U just for the lols. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Rob5VGC on 17 December 2016

Which home console does Final Fantasy move the most units and Limited Edition consoles on? ;)



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

The latter half Amazon said the PS4 will be #1 but the XB1 has been #1. It's not very complicated.

I agree that it shouldn't be complicated. Problem is, you have made it so.

But, let me level with you for a bit - you said that we should now take Amazon with a grain of salt after 36 months? Right? Okay, lets do some math! After the 36 months, Amazon has been wrong, if memory serves, a total of 6 times (meaning 6 months). 

Lets grade that: 83 = B

In school, that's above average (and in many cases, very good). Thus, in my mind, on average, Amazon has been a very good indicator of who will win NPD for the month. 

Its a different story when they have been wrong 4 times in a row.