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Forums - Gaming - If DS was a fluke where's the "inevitable" handheld decline?

Soundwave said:

DS replaced the GBA in large part because Ninendo stopped making GBA games. Just like they're going to stop making 3DS game eventually. Largely it's already over for their main groups as all their projects are farmed out for 3DS now. 

Switch is the freaking portable version. Like what about that do people not get? It's a freaking tablet form factor. Tablet's are portable and far more popular than the tired "clamshell portable" design. This is simply a device designed more for what people in 2016 want ... not what 2003 want. Even if Nintendo at some point offers some gimped, smaller clamshell version of the Switch I'll predict it right now that model will sell much less than the main Switch model, just like 2DS to the 3DS. 

What about playing the Switch didn't look convienant on an aiplane? It even has a built in kick stand ... have you been on an airplane or airport lately? You'll see dozens to hundreds of tablet devices, very, very few DS like devices. A switch is no more "complex" to use than a tablet. Turn it on, set it down on the tray surface, and play. Or you can just hold it in your hand. What's the issue here? 

The portable was a typo. What I meant was a (portable) handheld.

The airplane part of the trailer was how Mr. Bean had done it. Why was it made to look so hard. I mean, you took out the tray, took out the support/stand, took the controllers, laid back and started playing. Why not just power on the device and start playing.

The clamshell design is pretty good (except the hinge may break pretty easilly), it's just that people have hard time knowing which device is in question when they all look the same, pretty much the same thing as all the Playstations being considered as Playstations, because they all are called Playstation. DSL, DSi and 3DS all look and sound the same (I liked the fat the most). I even saw just the other day a new DSi XL with 139€ pricetag in a store, as the staff apparenty do not know what the device is. The clamshell design is just as tired as is the tablet form with everything being flat tablets today. Makes you miss the exciting N-gage form factor.

Nintendo did stop making GBA games, but had the market rejected the DS, they'd returned to GBA. Nintendo even released GBA Micro after the DS was out. Nintendo will stop making 3DS games after Switch market is sustainable. Getting rid of 3DS now would make a bad situation with Swich launch costs at the same time Wii U isn't making any money and 3DS not making money either.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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I read through most of the thread and then things sort of got off the rails with defining a handheld.

My view on things:
Dedicated handhelds are on the way out. It's undeniable that sales are down significantly from the DS. This shouldn't be viewed as an upward trend still from the GBA, but a downward trend from the last relevant install base. For example, we didn't compare the Wii U to the Gamecube to determine if it was successful. We compared it to the Wii and saw a monumental loss in install base from one generation to the next.

Smartphones and tablets have stolen the casual gamer, and the more serious efforts developers make, the more people are willing to put time into bigger adventures on their existing touchscreen device. Particularly as tablets continue to blur the line between what we traditionally think of as a tablet and a laptop, with increasingly capable mobile hardware, we start to observe a merging of multiple previously separate hardware as differences further become negligible. Ultimately, what is the major difference between a tablet with a bluetooth keyboard and a run of the mill laptop? At this point, both are capable of providing an identical experience at pretty much identical prices, while the tablet has the added bonus of creating a unified system with my phone.

Dedicated handheld gaming consoles are not some distinctly separate entity from hardware becoming more unified, and I don't think it's all that far off base to say that Nintendo will never make a dedicated gaming handheld ever again, or that if they do, the next will be their last. I don't think the Switch will be the definitive game changer for their handhelds, likely to suffer from the shortfalls in battery life that keep tablets from being a more popular portable device than they already are, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that it will define the future of their handheld efforts.



 

LuckyTrouble said:
I read through most of the thread and then things sort of got off the rails with defining a handheld.

My view on things:
Dedicated handhelds are on the way out. It's undeniable that sales are down significantly from the DS. This shouldn't be viewed as an upward trend still from the GBA, but a downward trend from the last relevant install base. For example, we didn't compare the Wii U to the Gamecube to determine if it was successful. We compared it to the Wii and saw a monumental loss in install base from one generation to the next.

Smartphones and tablets have stolen the casual gamer, and the more serious efforts developers make, the more people are willing to put time into bigger adventures on their existing touchscreen device. Particularly as tablets continue to blur the line between what we traditionally think of as a tablet and a laptop, with increasingly capable mobile hardware, we start to observe a merging of multiple previously separate hardware as differences further become negligible. Ultimately, what is the major difference between a tablet with a bluetooth keyboard and a run of the mill laptop? At this point, both are capable of providing an identical experience at pretty much identical prices, while the tablet has the added bonus of creating a unified system with my phone.

Dedicated handheld gaming consoles are not some distinctly separate entity from hardware becoming more unified, and I don't think it's all that far off base to say that Nintendo will never make a dedicated gaming handheld ever again, or that if they do, the next will be their last. I don't think the Switch will be the definitive game changer for their handhelds, likely to suffer from the shortfalls in battery life that keep tablets from being a more popular portable device than they already are, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that it will define the future of their handheld efforts.

You forgot all about the hybrid netbooks/laptops. And on the Windows side of things, all the new Windows devices should offer you somewhat identical experience and be connected to each other so you could continue your work, you started on a PC, on a tablet or a phone.

But yes, what we'll see in the future depends what the market want's. It's pretty easy to predict where the companies will invest, but predicting what the market will adopt, is a lot harder.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

If Nintendo can hold 60 million userbase for Switch (about the same as the 3DS) that's fine. They're going to have to work harder because yes obviously the market for portable electronics and entertainment has radically changed the last 6-7 years especially.

20 million in Japan is the key, if they can have strong userbase there, they should receive a lot of Japanese support with a system (for a portable) as relatively powerful as the Switch is.

US/EU are probably tougher for Nintendo but they are larger market naturally, so that may balance out.



Soundwave said:
If Nintendo can hold 60 million userbase for Switch (about the same as the 3DS) that's fine. They're going to have to work harder because yes obviously the market for portable electronics and entertainment has radically changed the last 6-7 years especially.

20 million in Japan is the key, if they can have strong userbase there, they should receive a lot of Japanese support with a system (for a portable) as relatively powerful as the Switch is.

US/EU are probably tougher for Nintendo but they are larger market naturally, so that may balance out.

But the 3DS userbase is not 60 million. It has sold 60 million, but mid-gen updates make it a whole lot harder to estimate the actual userbase. I've personally owned a 2DS, 3DS, and now a New 3DS XL, with all of those counting independently towards the overall 3DS sales.

As for Japan, Nintendo will have to be really smart about their Switch marketing. Japan likes their handhelds, but battery life and convenience of portability is going to have a huge impact on whether or not Japan readily adopts the Switch. Once the device stops fitting in their pocket nicely, how attached to the device will Japan actually be?



 

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Soundwave said:
If Nintendo can hold 60 million userbase for Switch (about the same as the 3DS) that's fine. They're going to have to work harder because yes obviously the market for portable electronics and entertainment has radically changed the last 6-7 years especially.

20 million in Japan is the key, if they can have strong userbase there, they should receive a lot of Japanese support with a system (for a portable) as relatively powerful as the Switch is.

US/EU are probably tougher for Nintendo but they are larger market naturally, so that may balance out.

I don't think Nintendo would be anywhere near happy with 60 million if Switch is to replace two devices. 



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

LuckyTrouble said:
Soundwave said:
If Nintendo can hold 60 million userbase for Switch (about the same as the 3DS) that's fine. They're going to have to work harder because yes obviously the market for portable electronics and entertainment has radically changed the last 6-7 years especially.

20 million in Japan is the key, if they can have strong userbase there, they should receive a lot of Japanese support with a system (for a portable) as relatively powerful as the Switch is.

US/EU are probably tougher for Nintendo but they are larger market naturally, so that may balance out.

But the 3DS userbase is not 60 million. It has sold 60 million, but mid-gen updates make it a whole lot harder to estimate the actual userbase. I've personally owned a 2DS, 3DS, and now a New 3DS XL, with all of those counting independently towards the overall 3DS sales.

As for Japan, Nintendo will have to be really smart about their Switch marketing. Japan likes their handhelds, but battery life and convenience of portability is going to have a huge impact on whether or not Japan readily adopts the Switch. Once the device stops fitting in their pocket nicely, how attached to the device will Japan actually be?

Most people from my experience, even being in Japan don't put their handheld in their jean pocket. Most school kids for example have (gasp!) bag with them. 

Switch will also quickly overtake the PS4, understand in Japan 3DS is basically THE main home system too. People play it at home as well. 

Every system has different models or some people for whatever reason buy multiple systems so it's hard to dilenate actual userbase size in any case. 

If anything many more people may appreciate the larger screen size of the Switch allowing for better game experiences. Too many people here are stuck in their bubble. They like traditional portable gaming, but the wider world has changed a lot. Go into any airport and you'll see probably 15-20 tablets for every one DS/3DS/Vita if that. That form factor is simply more popular now. People don't care that it doesn't fit into your pocket. 

Pant/jean pockets are reserved for keys + wallet + smartphone and that's it these days. A portable game system is not getting in there above life neccessities like those 3 items are. When I was a kid, we had the OG Game Boy, and fitting one of those bastard's into your pocket's was basically impossible

Kids today from everything I see prefer larger tablet devices. It's easier to play games on and watch cartoons on. 



^Kinda like seeing how much more tablets (and smartphones) there are today compared to netbooks and laptops you saw five years ago.

Relating to the pocket size, you people seem to forget women with their purses. You don't need ta have a pocket size device to fit it in your purse.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

LuckyTrouble said:

But the 3DS userbase is not 60 million. It has sold 60 million, but mid-gen updates make it a whole lot harder to estimate the actual userbase.

The same can be said for any device that recieves revisions.

GB/PS1/GBA/PS2/DS/PSP/360/PS3/3DS and soon to be XBO/PS4 numbers are all inflated from having successful revisions.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Conina said:
tak13 said:

Clamshell in a handheld console means dual screen though, you omitted that... 

It also means thicker device or less battery life.

the case of the second display takes space which could be used for a higher capacity battery and the second display need additional power from the battery.

                               

  Is that thicker than switch handheld device?

As for the battery thing, I think that  I can't  confute your claimings...