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Soundwave on 11 December 2016
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LuckyTrouble said:
Soundwave said:
If Nintendo can hold 60 million userbase for Switch (about the same as the 3DS) that's fine. They're going to have to work harder because yes obviously the market for portable electronics and entertainment has radically changed the last 6-7 years especially.

20 million in Japan is the key, if they can have strong userbase there, they should receive a lot of Japanese support with a system (for a portable) as relatively powerful as the Switch is.

US/EU are probably tougher for Nintendo but they are larger market naturally, so that may balance out.

But the 3DS userbase is not 60 million. It has sold 60 million, but mid-gen updates make it a whole lot harder to estimate the actual userbase. I've personally owned a 2DS, 3DS, and now a New 3DS XL, with all of those counting independently towards the overall 3DS sales.

As for Japan, Nintendo will have to be really smart about their Switch marketing. Japan likes their handhelds, but battery life and convenience of portability is going to have a huge impact on whether or not Japan readily adopts the Switch. Once the device stops fitting in their pocket nicely, how attached to the device will Japan actually be?

Most people from my experience, even being in Japan don't put their handheld in their jean pocket. Most school kids for example have (gasp!) bag with them. 

Switch will also quickly overtake the PS4, understand in Japan 3DS is basically THE main home system too. People play it at home as well. 

Every system has different models or some people for whatever reason buy multiple systems so it's hard to dilenate actual userbase size in any case. 

If anything many more people may appreciate the larger screen size of the Switch allowing for better game experiences. Too many people here are stuck in their bubble. They like traditional portable gaming, but the wider world has changed a lot. Go into any airport and you'll see probably 15-20 tablets for every one DS/3DS/Vita if that. That form factor is simply more popular now. People don't care that it doesn't fit into your pocket. 

Pant/jean pockets are reserved for keys + wallet + smartphone and that's it these days. A portable game system is not getting in there above life neccessities like those 3 items are. When I was a kid, we had the OG Game Boy, and fitting one of those bastard's into your pocket's was basically impossible

Kids today from everything I see prefer larger tablet devices. It's easier to play games on and watch cartoons on.