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Soundwave said:
If Nintendo can hold 60 million userbase for Switch (about the same as the 3DS) that's fine. They're going to have to work harder because yes obviously the market for portable electronics and entertainment has radically changed the last 6-7 years especially.

20 million in Japan is the key, if they can have strong userbase there, they should receive a lot of Japanese support with a system (for a portable) as relatively powerful as the Switch is.

US/EU are probably tougher for Nintendo but they are larger market naturally, so that may balance out.

But the 3DS userbase is not 60 million. It has sold 60 million, but mid-gen updates make it a whole lot harder to estimate the actual userbase. I've personally owned a 2DS, 3DS, and now a New 3DS XL, with all of those counting independently towards the overall 3DS sales.

As for Japan, Nintendo will have to be really smart about their Switch marketing. Japan likes their handhelds, but battery life and convenience of portability is going to have a huge impact on whether or not Japan readily adopts the Switch. Once the device stops fitting in their pocket nicely, how attached to the device will Japan actually be?