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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Zelda: Breath of the Wild Sales Predictions

Wyrdness said:
curl-6 said:

- 3DS to sell less than GBA, less than half of DS, and less than any Nintendo portable except the Virtual Boy

- Vita to sell less than a quarter of PSP

- Yearly portable sales less than half of even the 6th gen, much less the 7th.

But sure, deny the facts if it makes you feel more secure about your doomed format.

Again total portables sold this gen will be equal or higher than gen 6, that's something you can't argue and you're flustered by that fact.

-GBA had a monopoly with no competition, you earlier touted mobile as strong competition, 3DS competes against mobile and Vita something GBA never had to deal with. Even then 3DS is on course to sell 65-70m which with Vita's number of units sold would be higher than GBA had in the market when the was no mobile. This flat out shoots down the whole portable being weaker now than back then and is something you can't argue and you're upset at not being able to debunk. Yearly rate of sales means nothing when the end result is higher for the gen that sold more units with stronger competition, this is something else you can't argue, right now it's not me denying facts it's you, you're clinging to the only thing you can and have hilariously said the main defining factor for any market is irrelevant, sorry but your entire argument has been struck out here and it's time you swallow and accept it, I'll keep telling you this untils you come to terms with it no matter how upset you get.

Oh, that's another one; 3DS will also sell less than the PSP, the loser of last gen.

As for Breath of the Wild, since you like to compare to the 6th gen, which you refer to as "normal", how much did GBA's Zelda, Minish Cap sell? Oh yeah, 1.4 million. 



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curl-6 said:

Oh, that's another one; 3DS will also sell less than the PSP, the loser of last gen.

As for Breath of the Wild, since you like to compare to the 6th gen, which you refer to as "normal", how much did GBA's Zelda, Minish Cap sell? Oh yeah, 1.4 million. 

PSP sold 80m which is more then the majority of platforms in history, gen 7 in general was an anomaly as even console sales are down from it this was due to the blue ocean explosion which brought in many new gamers and your point about Minish Cap? You're struggling to even put together arguments now signalling to me you're rattled here, ALBW outsold MC meaning Zelda's strength in the normal consumer base has increased, you've just helped my earlier point even further with that comment.



Wyrdness said:
curl-6 said:

Oh, that's another one; 3DS will also sell less than the PSP, the loser of last gen.

As for Breath of the Wild, since you like to compare to the 6th gen, which you refer to as "normal", how much did GBA's Zelda, Minish Cap sell? Oh yeah, 1.4 million. 

PSP sold 80m which is more then the majority of platforms in history, gen 7 in general was an anomaly as even console sales are down from it this was due to the blue ocean explosion which brought in many new gamers and your point about Minish Cap? You're struggling to even put together arguments now signalling to me you're rattled here, ALBW outsold MC meaning Zelda in the normal consumer base has increased, you've just help my earlier point even further with that comment.

So 3DS will not only fail to sell as well as any Nintendo portable except Virtual Boy, it will be the first Nintendo portable, again besides Virtual Boy, to sell less than a non-Nintendo portable.

The chances of BotW reaching 11-13 million sales are remote to the point of silliness. Zelda just isn't that popular a series. Never has been, never will be.



GProgrammer said:
Zelda games don't really sell as big as their reputations, so 4 million lifetime will be difficult

Wanna make a bet? I bet it will reach 4m (shipped + digitally) within the first full year (from march to march, or from june to june, depending on when it launches).



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

curl-6 said:

So 3DS will not only fail to sell as well as any Nintendo portable except Virtual Boy, it will be the first Nintendo portable, again besides Virtual Boy, to sell less than a non-Nintendo portable.

The chances of BotW reaching 11-13 million sales are remote to the point of silliness. Zelda just isn't that popular a series. Never has been, never will be.

Yet it still will easily make it into the the top 10 selling platforms of all time which is far from a doom and gloom scenario like you try to paint.

As for Zelda, consistenly averaging 4m for over 25 years says otherwise each game has differing individual appeal, TP sold near 9m (which debunks it's never been popular) on two consoles and BOTW has access to an additional userbase previous console installments didn't when they first launched so it's not farfetched of a prediction (especially as BOTW is the most anticipated Zelda game since both OOT and TP) if NS takes off, what's it to you if people predict 10m+?



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Mar1217 said:
LipeJJ said:

I know, I think it can/will do 1m+ FW combined, I'm just saying this isn't 100% guaranteed yet. It will need a great attach rate for the first week to do it.

Btw, can you do a breakdown between Switch/WiiU of your 3.5m prediction? I'm guessing you're expecting the Switch version to do at least 2m FW? In that case, the attach rate would need to be something like 50% FW. I believe that's unprecedented (or extremely rare) for a game not bundled.

I'll do better. I'll put my prediction for each worlwide section (N.A,Eur. and Japan)

N.America : 1,5M(Switch), 0,3M(WiiU)

Europe : 0,75M(Switch), 0,2M(WiiU)

Japan : 0,4M(Switch), 0,1M(WiiU)

P.S : After revising my numbers I'll put down my prediction to 3,25M copies sold in FW. And the game is probably gonna have a bundle with the switch. But later in it's lifetime.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're putting the Switch version at 2.65m FW, right? Nintendo expects to ship 2m for the launch period (people think it's either for the 2 weeks of march, or first full month), so it Breath of the Wild launches with Switch you're prediction failed by default as it would need to sell more than the number os available consoles. But even if the game releases on June, it would still need to have an attach rate bigger than 50%... and on launch while at that. This is almost... unpredecented. I'm 99% sure this won't happen, but eh, I'm a Zelda fan, so I'll be rooting for it. ^^ 



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Wyrdness said:
curl-6 said:

So 3DS will not only fail to sell as well as any Nintendo portable except Virtual Boy, it will be the first Nintendo portable, again besides Virtual Boy, to sell less than a non-Nintendo portable.

The chances of BotW reaching 11-13 million sales are remote to the point of silliness. Zelda just isn't that popular a series. Never has been, never will be.

Yet it still will easily make it into the the top 10 selling platforms of all time which is far from a doom and gloom scenario like you try to paint.

As for Zelda, consistenly averaging 4m for over 25 years says otherwise each game has differing individual appeal, TP sold near 9m (which debunks it's never been popular) on two consoles and BOTW has access to an additional userbase previous console installments didn't when they first launched so it's not farfetched of a prediction (especially as BOTW is the most anticipated Zelda game since both OOT and TP) if NS takes off, what's it to you if people predict 10m+?

Actually, it probably won't end up in the top 10; it's #10 now, but it will be knocked out by PS4.

And I never said Zelda's never been popular. Of course it has. But it's 3-8 million popular, not 11-13 million popular.



curl-6 said:

Actually, it probably won't end up in the top 10; it's #10 now, but it will be knocked out by PS4.

And I never said Zelda's never been popular. Of course it has. But it's 3-8 million popular, not 11-13 million popular.

It'll finish it's life in top 10, next year is it's last.

Zelda is not too far off from 11m going by TPs performance, if the was a portable device from Nintendo that could run it at the time and it got a version of the game it may very well be in the 11-13m range given the anticipation the game had, this is why the predictions for BOTW from people aren't farfetched as the Wii U has a high attach rate meaning the U version of BOTW imo could significantly sell more than what the GC version of TP did while the NS version having a unified userbase could go on to sell more than the Wii version of TP. All it comes down to is NS doing well, if it does entering that range is not too wild tbh.



Mar1217 said:
curl-6 said:

Actually, it probably won't end up in the top 10; it's #10 now, but it will be knocked out by PS4.

And I never said Zelda's never been popular. Of course it has. But it's 3-8 million popular, not 11-13 million popular.

So you think the next Zelda game can't increase it's number 'cause it's Zelda ? I firmly believe the next Zelda game is gonna strenghen it's appeal to an even larger audience this time. If The Witcher did it with it's 3rd game, I don't know why Zelda wouldn't be able to do it too.

We're not just talking about it outselling every previous game in its 30 year history though, including one of the most acclaimed and famous games of all time, but also doing so by a considerable margin. I'm not saying it is impossible, but it is very unlikely.



Wyrdness said:
curl-6 said:

Actually, it probably won't end up in the top 10; it's #10 now, but it will be knocked out by PS4.

And I never said Zelda's never been popular. Of course it has. But it's 3-8 million popular, not 11-13 million popular.

It'll finish it's life in top 10, next year is it's last.

Zelda is not too far off from 11m going by TPs performance, if the was a portable device from Nintendo that could run it at the time and it got a version of the game it may very well be in the 11-13m range given the anticipation the game had, this is why the predictions for BOTW from people aren't farfetched as the Wii U has a high attach rate meaning the U version of BOTW imo could significantly sell more than what the GC version of TP did while the NS version having a unified userbase could go on to sell more than the Wii version of TP. All it comes down to is NS doing well, if it does entering that range is not too wild tbh.

3DS will most likely still be selling when PS4 beats it.

And Twilight Princess shows that even on an install base of over 123 million systems, and with immense hype behind it, the 9 million threshold wasn't breached.