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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. December bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

jason1637 on 27 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

So you know how big the gap is between #2 and #20? If so please share.

If there is a gap, doesn't that mean one of them is indisputably winning?

Yea but if its samll and there is another XB1 right behind the BF1 bundle so that could put Xbox on top but there is also a pro 50 spots behind and 2 XB1S right beind that also. I dont know who is winning since idont know the gap but saying "Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner." is a bit impulsive and you're stating it like a fact on top of that.



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jason1637 on 27 December 2016
Aura7541 said:
jason1637 said:

I made my prediction based on what Amazon is showing. Amazon can be wrong but if it is right then i see XB1 winning because like i said Pro preorders are out and Pro is a lot lower than last month while the Minecraft bundle is a lot higher. But the monthly isnt over and like you said the COD bundle is coming this last week so the monthly could change. As for the PS4 deals lasting longer earlier today i clicked on the XB1 and saw its still at $250. 

Which is a very flawed methodology because it was wrong in September and October, so the best course of action is to consider all variables, as I have already stated above. The Minecraft bundle is a lot higher, but does it negate the PS4 potentially winning Nov. 27 - Dec. 10 + Dec. 25 - Dec. 31? Did the XBO even outsell the PS4 during the Dec. 11 - Dec. 24 period and by how much? Is that buying period bigger than Nov. 27 + Cyber Monday even though Cyber Monday was bigger than BF online? Also, the XBO is not officially sold at $250. Those XBO's you're seeing being sold at $250 are done by 3rd party sellers.

EDIT: You also need to consider the size of Amazon relative to Walmart, GameStop, Best Buy, and Target. Checking their online websites, the XBO is being sold at $300.

Yeah the sentence after the one you bolded i said it could be wrong. But with the PS4 taking Cyber Monday it could win. In my post in the NPD thread i posted it being close with an XB1 winning slightly. The PS4 could still win. Also i didnt know the other retailers have XB1 at $300 so that could put PS4 ahead.



LudicrousSpeed on 27 December 2016
jason1637 said:
CGI-Quality said:

If there is a gap, doesn't that mean one of them is indisputably winning?

Yea but if its samll and there is another XB1 right behind the BF1 bundle so that could put Xbox on top but there is also a pro 50 spots behind and 2 XB1S right beind that also. I dont know who is winning since idont know the gap but saying "Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner." is a bit impulsive and you're stating it like a fact on top of that.

Impulsive, indeed. An "outright claim", no less. Gap between 2 and 20 could be 200 or 20,000 for all we know, lol.

But yeah, that is a fact, while numbers verified by multiple trusted sources eh... still needs some more confirmation.



jason1637 on 27 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

Yea but if its samll and there is another XB1 right behind the BF1 bundle so that could put Xbox on top but there is also a pro 50 spots behind and 2 XB1S right beind that also. I dont know who is winning since idont know the gap but saying "Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner." is a bit impulsive and you're stating it like a fact on top of that.

If the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial, then Amazon has determined the outcome of the month. Barring a few months (that is, at most, 6 out of 36), that is generally how's it been. The only prediction that I've made is that Sony will win the month. Not based on impulse, but using the criteria of the topic we continue to post in. 

Hmm well it seemed less impulsive now since you clarified. Comparing what you just wrote to what you wrote earlier the latter seems more impulsive.

"If the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial, then Amazon has determined the outcome of the month" You just said but earlier it was

"Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner."



Aura7541 on 27 December 2016

I should emphasize that the monthly charts have about a 3 day lag and today is the third day after the XBO sales ended. From now to January 3, the XBO bundles should start dropping. This is especially true for the Minecraft bundle, which is currently listed at #23 on the December rankings, but has dropped like a rock since Dec. 24. The UC4 bundle will also drop a bit, but it has stayed rather consistent. In fact, it's currently #9 on the hourly charts. This will throw yet another wrench into trying to interpret Amazon's rankings.



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jason1637 on 27 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

Hmm well it seemed less impulsive now since you clarified. Comparing what you just wrote to what you wrote earlier the latter seems more impulsive.

"If the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial, then Amazon has determined the outcome of the month" You just said but earlier it was

"Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner."

Those statements have the same sentiments. That, based on positioning, Amazon has determined the winner, clearly and decisively. That is usually how can determine what will happen with NPD.

Had things been #4 & #5, it wouldn't be clear and decisive, even though we could still claim a winner.

No there not.

When you clarified you said that if the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial then Amazon has determined the winner. But what if there not? You said "if" meaning that there is a chance that its not substantial and the XB1 has a chance of coming out on top but your older statement made it seem like the PS4 has already won. Also you left out "we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner" out of your other statement because it isn't that clear. I'm not saying the PS4 isn't winning but the first comment was impulsive when 30mins earlier you were accusing someone else of being impulsive. It's like the Pot is calling the Kettle black.



jason1637 on 27 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

No there not.

When you clarified you said that if the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial then Amazon has determined the winner. But what if there not? You said "if" meaning that there is a chance that its not substantial and the XB1 has a chance of coming out on top but your older statement made it seem like the PS4 has already won. Also you left out "we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner" out of your other statement because it isn't that clear. I'm not saying the PS4 isn't winning but the first comment was impulsive when 30mins earlier you were accusing someone else of being impulsive. It's like the Pot is calling the Kettle black.

Yes, they are. You've missed it along the way, but the argument has not changed. Positioning on the Amazon charts (hourly + weekly). That's been my stance from the beginning. The "if" have been questions directed towards you.

You're trying to find something in what I'm saying that doesn't exist. 

Well i was just saying that what you said are similar but saying "Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner." was very impulsive especially when you accused someone else from making an impulsive claim. Even LudicrousSpeed seems to agree.



jason1637 on 27 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

Well i was just saying that what you said are similar but saying "Now as for the winner of December, using Amazon, we currently have a clear and decisive front-runner." was very impulsive especially when you accused someone else from making an impulsive claim. Even LudicrousSpeed seems to agree.

People agree with both sides of this, so you pointing out that someone agrees with you doesn't really strengthen your point and actually moves into an area you should probably avoid. 

Now what I have I said that is similar to: "I think Sony not only stands to lose their momentum in the US, but also stands to lose activision as a partner." and "I think Sony really crapped the bed this holiday"?

Me: "Amazon shows a clear and decisive winner based on positioning". Am I basing my prediction of a PS4 December 2016 win on nothing? Or is this based on something that we can put our finger on?

According to you the first post about Sony was impulsive. You're post about Amazon showing a clear winner is also impulsive especially when you push it as a fact. Its not a fact because we don't know the gap between #2 and #20. It could be huge and PS4 is winning but it could also be minimal and with the XB1 Minecraft bundle right after the BF1 could put the XB1 ahead. It's not a fact unless you can provide us evidence of the gap. Seeing as you cant its not a fact and that why its impulsive. You're other statement saying "If the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial, then Amazon has determined the outcome of the month" is better.



Intrinsic on 27 December 2016
xl-klaudkil said:
The cod ps4 bundle not even in top100.
That 300 price tag is just too much

Lets see, so I can get a PS4 + Uncharted + COD for $300.

 

Or I can get PD4+ COD for $300......... decisions.



jason1637 on 27 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

According to you the first post about Sony was impulsive. You're post about Amazon showing a clear winner is also impulsive especially when you push it as a fact. Its not a fact because we don't know the gap between #2 and #20. It could be huge and PS4 is winning but it could also be minimal and with the XB1 Minecraft bundle right after the BF1 could put the XB1 ahead. It's not a fact unless you can provide us evidence of the gap. Seeing as you cant its not a fact and that why its impulsive. You're other statement saying "If the positions between #2 and #20 are substantial, then Amazon has determined the outcome of the month" is better.

Where did I say the PS4 winning December was a fact? I haven't. If you don't plan on using Amazon numbers to make predicitions, why post in here at all? We're here to discuss what's going on in the US based on what Amazon shows for the hour, week, and month.

I don't know why that is a concept that's suddenly lost on you.

Where did i every say you said PS4 was winning? The concept isn't lost to me at all when I used Amazon less than an hour ago to explain why the Xbox could be winning http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8216298

Also what was the point of you're post just now you didn't contribute to anything I said in the post that you qouted. The only thing was that you didn't say PS4 was winning and that we use this thread to make predictions on the US console market? While I was talking about what you said was a fact wasn't a fact because we don't know the amount of units between each gap.