Simple math. Nintendo can only cross the 50% of total consoles sold if they take greater than 50% market share from today forward (i.e. outsell PS4, Xbone, and Vita). Otherwise their market share of historical sales will shrink. So no, they won't cross 50%.

Well, they won't do it this year. I'll congratulate them when they do.

Not to be a downer or anything, but if you take out the handheld sales , Sony really raised the bar for what home consoles should sell. 100 million or bust(jk). If it doesn't then it sells over 80 million. 3 home consoles outselling all 6 from Nintendo. Just saying.

Can't wait for 700.

Theoretically, if Switch got off to an amazing start, and 3DS has a solid 201u, they could hit 50% for a short period, maybe around 1 year after release.  This would require amazing sales though, and poor sales of most of their competition.  So, I basically agree that it ain't gonna happen.

Hell of an achievement, here's to another 30 years...is what I would say if Nintendo would give me Super Mario RPG: LotST sequel already! See, this is exactly why...[Insert Nintendo rant]

That's a cool milestone. No, they won't pass 50% of total hardware sales, but it's still cool.

It's not 800m but it'll do.

Where's Virtual Boy on the list.. that sold at least 120 million, right?

Awesome milestone! I don't think they'll pass 50%, at least anytime soon, but still awesome nonetheless!

Ka-pi96 said: Thought this was referring to total of all consoles rather than just a Switch prediction. Then I saw who the OP was and wasn`t so sure

The most Nintendo has sold in a year is 53M consoles. Even with a 10yr lifespan that would only be 530M.  

I suppose if the NES-mini Pro was to do 17M/yr that could make up the other 170M. Hmmmmm.

A year like 2007 or 2008 would do it.

2007 - 46m (N) 20m (S) 8m (MS)

2008 - 53m (N) 24m (S) 11m (MS)

The competition can still do good numbers, Nintendo has to do better.