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Forums - Sales - October 2016 NPD Thread! Software and hardware estimates up!

Madword on 12 November 2016
X1Gates said:

Just as I predicted a xbox win for October. I am going all in and giving xbox November and December, the deals going around are to good to miss out on.

The deals will no way make up for the amount of consoles pre-ordered for Pro... if it does then we are obviously not seeing those sales coming through amazon at all and they are doing something special in stores just to dump stock.

I actually thought MS and Sony would keep back some old stock of pre slim consoles for black friday, but I guess they've already dumped that lot?



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Swordmasterman on 12 November 2016
outlawauron said:
Sony seems to keep screwing up the last quarter with the constant delays of their big titles. MS taking good advantage.

Sales wise ? they took 2 holidays out of 3. But   the delays are a bad thing in general.



holahola on 12 November 2016
Madword said:
X1Gates said:

Just as I predicted a xbox win for October. I am going all in and giving xbox November and December, the deals going around are to good to miss out on.

The deals will no way make up for the amount of consoles pre-ordered for Pro... if it does then we are obviously not seeing those sales coming through amazon at all and they are doing something special in stores just to dump stock.

I actually thought MS and Sony would keep back some old stock of pre slim consoles for black friday, but I guess they've already dumped that lot?

what preorders for the Pro. do you have any numbers? the xbox one s was also preordered for 3 months. and sold just shy of 150k in its first month.
do you talk about preorder numbers like the ps4 in november 2013? because sony needs half of that to beat xbox this holiday season

holiday 2014 xbox one outsold ps4 by 1.33:1
holiday 2015 ps4 outsold xbox one by 1.17:1
lifetime to date, the original ps4 outsold the original xbox one by 1.15:1

since the release of Xbox One S, Xbox outsold Ps4 by 1.35:1

If we assume the salesgap between Xbox One S and Ps4 Slim stays the same;
Sony needs to sell 1 Ps4 Pro for every 2.5 Xbox One sold this holiday season to keep the gap at 1.15:1 in their favour
Sony needs to sell 1 Ps4 Pro for every 3.75 Xbox One sold for parity

but it's even more likely, that the salesgap between Xbox One S and Ps4 Slim will increase even further this holiday, thanks to the incredible deals and value Microsoft is offering this year, compared to last year and compared to Sonys weak showing (no CoD Bundle. no Battlefront Bundle. no Ps4 Pro deals for Black Friday at all)

if the salesgap between Xbox One S and Ps4 Slim increase to 1.5:1 this holiday season (just a 0.15 increase over the current rating)
Sony needs to sell 1 Ps4 Pro for every 2 Xbox One sold this holiday Season to keep the 1.15:1 advantage over Microsoft

It is possible, that Ps4 Pro and Slim combined will outsell Xbox One this holiday season, but it's even more likely that Xbox will outsoll Ps4
It is unlikely, that Ps4 will outsell by the same margin, they did last year or LTD over the last 3 years in the US

 

 

my estimate: the ps4 Pro will sell below 500k units in November. i just don't see them doing a (way) bigger numbers



FIT_Gamer on 12 November 2016
holahola said:
Madword said:

The deals will no way make up for the amount of consoles pre-ordered for Pro... if it does then we are obviously not seeing those sales coming through amazon at all and they are doing something special in stores just to dump stock.

I actually thought MS and Sony would keep back some old stock of pre slim consoles for black friday, but I guess they've already dumped that lot?

what preorders for the Pro. do you have any numbers? the xbox one s was also preordered for 3 months. and sold just shy of 150k in its first month.
do you talk about preorder numbers like the ps4 in november 2013? because sony needs half of that to beat xbox this holiday season

holiday 2014 xbox one outsold ps4 by 1.33:1
holiday 2015 ps4 outsold xbox one by 1.17:1
lifetime to date, the original ps4 outsold the original xbox one by 1.15:1

since the release of Xbox One S, Xbox outsold Ps4 by 1.35:1

If we assume the salesgap between Xbox One S and Ps4 Slim stays the same;
Sony needs to sell 1 Ps4 Pro for every 2.5 Xbox One sold this holiday season to keep the gap at 1.15:1 in their favour
Sony needs to sell 1 Ps4 Pro for every 3.75 Xbox One sold for parity

but it's even more likely, that the salesgap between Xbox One S and Ps4 Slim will increase even further this holiday, thanks to the incredible deals and value Microsoft is offering this year, compared to last year and compared to Sonys weak showing (no CoD Bundle. no Battlefront Bundle. no Ps4 Pro deals for Black Friday at all)

if the salesgap between Xbox One S and Ps4 Slim increase to 1.5:1 this holiday season (just a 0.15 increase over the current rating)
Sony needs to sell 1 Ps4 Pro for every 2 Xbox One sold this holiday Season to keep the 1.15:1 advantage over Microsoft

It is possible, that Ps4 Pro and Slim combined will outsell Xbox One this holiday season, but it's even more likely that Xbox will outsoll Ps4
It is unlikely, that Ps4 will outsell by the same margin, they did last year or LTD over the last 3 years in the US

 

 

my estimate: the ps4 Pro will sell below 500k units in November. i just don't see them doing a (way) bigger numbers

Yeah and the XB1 S only made it #93 on Amazon's 2016 chart. The PS4 Pro is at #50.



holahola on 12 November 2016
FIT_Gamer said:
holahola said:

Yeah and the XB1 S only made it #93 on Amazon's 2016 chart. The PS4 Pro is at #50.

what should that tell me?
Ps4 Pro will sell better than, the XB1 S 2TB Launch Edtion? Ofc, that was a very limited SKU, with sales below 130k.

But don't use Amazon rankings
No Man's Sky is #23 on that list ahead of games like BF1, lol



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aLkaLiNE on 12 November 2016
3sexty said:
aLkaLiNE said:

Okay easily, in June Microsoft officially revealed xb1S at E3, slated for a staggered early/late August release depending on the SKU. They did not win June.

 

In July, they put all Og Xbox consoles on firesale across the US, the U.K. And other main territories to make shelf space for the new slim and to deplete old stock. http://technewsdir.com/updated-the-best-xbox-one-deals-in-july-2016 They won July by offering deals like "xb1 500gb, gears of war ultimate edition, extra free controller, and a Ubisoft game of your choice for $250". There were many other similar deals but the point is that they significantly dropped the cost of entry during July.

 

At the beginning of August, the 2tb slim released. The last week of August, the rest of the slim SKUs released. By staggering the release like this, Microsoft ensured a victory in August which is a slow month anyway, and the effect bled through to September since the cheapest slim had only come out a week prior to this month. Forza horizon 3 came out at the end of September, and in October we have gears of war. Keep in mind that since July, the Og Xbox has been on firesale for $250 this whole time. So not only do we have the new arrival of the slim, but we have constant fire sales of OG Xbox going on in the background coupled with console movers like Gears of War. The way all of this is timed makes me think that Spencer is trying to eek out a few consecutive victories to try and change the mindshare for Americans. I already know it won't work,  as despite all of the tactics Ms has used they are only barely winning in their primary territory these past few months while Sony has sat idly by focusing instead on PSVR and now the Pro. My analysis is that Ms will lose the rest of the year, based on recent product launches, future prospects for exclusives, historical precedence and of course the fact that this is a modern console competing against a 1.3tf cable box.

Thank you that is much better. I think however you have really underplayed the effect of the xbox one slim and its advantage over the ps4 slim at exactly the same price.  And like I sais before the slim versions of both companies will outsell the pro versions over the longer term (past this holliday pro launch). Simply Sony dropped the ball by not adding any value to the slim version at all compared to the previous version. xbox one slim one the other hand......said it all before. Sony need to do somehing here as this is one of their only profit generating business these days.  Historical context really wont have any relevance here. The One Slim was a master move.

If you're going to take into consideration the UHD player of the xb then it would make sense to consider the ~35% power advantage of Ps4. So, they're at the same price now but the R&D was spent differently, it's not as simple a choice as "this one plays UHD and this one doesn't". Also, PlayStation is not the only profit generating division and never has been so that would be something to look into (nor is it the most profitable branch).



3sexty on 12 November 2016
aLkaLiNE said:
3sexty said:

Thank you that is much better. I think however you have really underplayed the effect of the xbox one slim and its advantage over the ps4 slim at exactly the same price.  And like I sais before the slim versions of both companies will outsell the pro versions over the longer term (past this holliday pro launch). Simply Sony dropped the ball by not adding any value to the slim version at all compared to the previous version. xbox one slim one the other hand......said it all before. Sony need to do somehing here as this is one of their only profit generating business these days.  Historical context really wont have any relevance here. The One Slim was a master move.

If you're going to take into consideration the UHD player of the xb then it would make sense to consider the ~35% power advantage of Ps4. So, they're at the same price now but the R&D was spent differently, it's not as simple a choice as "this one plays UHD and this one doesn't". Also, PlayStation is not the only profit generating division and never has been so that would be something to look into (nor is it the most profitable branch).

Yes I agree about the power difference however most consumers do not know or care about the 35% diff. Marketing is a very powerful tool when it comes to perception - I think the 4k thing (even tho it is upscaled for gaming) has attached to the idea of value quite well. It really presents a notion of qaulity at an affordable price. Time will tell of course. I am kind of convinced that the One slim has achieved the turnaround reqiured for MS in the console business. I mean why didnt Sony do the same thing especially considrering they partly own the BD platfform and promoted it very well during the Ps3 days. I could be wrong  here but I really believe there is a trend developing here.



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Turkish on 12 November 2016

so we got any numbaz?



Vertigo-X on 12 November 2016
SWORDF1SH said:
Vertigo-X said:

There, fixed that for ya. Just kidding!

There, fixed it for ya.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1289840

When I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Thanks for the correction, my smugness aside.



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outlawauron on 13 November 2016
Swordmasterman said:
outlawauron said:
Sony seems to keep screwing up the last quarter with the constant delays of their big titles. MS taking good advantage.

Sales wise ? they took 2 holidays out of 3. But   the delays are a bad thing in general.

Last holiday was relatively competitive, but Sony wasted an opportunity to put the generation away in the first half of the generation.



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