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Forums - Sales - How Much Does the Switch Need to Sell to be Considered a Success?

 

How Much Does the Switch Need to Sell to be a Success?

Below 10 million LT 1 0.58%
 
10-20 million LT 4 2.31%
 
20-30 million LT 15 8.67%
 
30-40 million LT 25 14.45%
 
40-50 million LT 37 21.39%
 
50-60 million LT 48 27.75%
 
60-70 million LT 13 7.51%
 
70-80 million LT 17 9.83%
 
80-90 million LT 3 1.73%
 
Greater than 90 million LT 10 5.78%
 
Total:173
John19 on 02 November 2016

To my knowledge, this topic hasn't been made since the Switch was revealed, but I apologize if it was. If it was, a mod could just go ahead and lock

So after reading some threads about the Switch and its sales, and people giving different estimates, I was wondering what people think the Switch needs to sell to be considered a success. Personally, I believe selling between 40-60 million LT would be successful, but I wanted to hear your guys opinions.



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Darwinianevolution on 02 November 2016

60 million is my guess. It doesn't need to be a Wii-like success, but it does need to at least match the 3DS sales, now that they have all their eggs in one basket. High attach ratios and better software output will bring enough money to make them happy.



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onionberry on 02 November 2016

whatever is profitable for Nintendo, to the eyes of fans and consumers more is better, but the switch could be more profitable than the ps3 with half of the sales/shipments of that console, and that is a success. Kimishima stated that switch will not be sold at a loss , that means profit from day 1. Now we will have to wait to calculate how much Nintendo is going to spend to manufacture the console an the initial shipment.



Jizz_Beard_thePirate on 02 November 2016

If Switch is the replacement of both the wiiU and 3ds (smaller SKU counts as part of Switch), then 70 million in my eyes. In Nintendo's eyes, how much $$$ its gonna make



                  

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Intrinsic on 02 November 2016
onionberry said:
whatever is profitable for Nintendo, to the eyes of fans and consumers more is better, but the switch could be more profitable than the ps3 with half of the sales/shipments of that console, and that is a success. Kimishima stated that switch will not be sold at a loss , that means profit from day 1. Now we will have to wait to calculate how much Nintendo is going to spend to manufacture the console an the initial shipment.

I came to say this... obviousky she beat me to it.

But i'll add a number. 30-35M lifetime. It's not that I think that's a high or low number, but I believe that's what they need to sustain their business. It's not like everyone that owns the console will be every single game, but an install base that size gives their releases flexibility. And will kinda ensure third parties aren't too afriad to make the investment. 



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onionberry on 02 November 2016
Intrinsic said:
onionberry said:
whatever is profitable for Nintendo, to the eyes of fans and consumers more is better, but the switch could be more profitable than the ps3 with half of the sales/shipments of that console, and that is a success. Kimishima stated that switch will not be sold at a loss , that means profit from day 1. Now we will have to wait to calculate how much Nintendo is going to spend to manufacture the console an the initial shipment.

I came to say this... obviousky she beat me to it.

But i'll add a number. 30-35M lifetime. It's not that I think that's a high or low number, but I believe that's what they need to sustain their business. It's not like everyone that owns the console will be every single game, but an install base that size gives their releases flexibility. And will kinda ensure third parties aren't too afriad to make the investment. 



Jranation on 02 November 2016

For now I would say......... give 50mil a shot!



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Frogger on 02 November 2016
Darwinianevolution said:
60 million is my guess. It doesn't need to be a Wii-like success, but it does need to at least match the 3DS sales, now that they have all their eggs in one basket. High attach ratios and better software output will bring enough money to make them happy.

They're going from having two platforms to one. It kind of does have to be a Wii-like success at the absolute least. This gen has the Wii U and 3DS selling a combined 74m so far, and that's been acknowledged by Nintendo as being a collossal failure for them.

Going from 74m on two plaforms to 60m on only one would be devastatingly bad for them. There's no point in consolidating their hardware if their audiences don't follow.



Roronaa_chan on 02 November 2016

If they're merging home and handheld then they better do more than 90M



mutantsushi on 02 November 2016
spemanig said:
Darwinianevolution said:
60 million is my guess. It doesn't need to be a Wii-like success, but it does need to at least match the 3DS sales, now that they have all their eggs in one basket. High attach ratios and better software output will bring enough money to make them happy.

They're going from having two platforms to one. It kind of does have to be a Wii-like success at the absolute least. This gen has the Wii U and 3DS selling a combined 74m so far, and that's been acknowledged by Nintendo as being a collossal failure for them.

Going from 74m on two plaforms to 60m on only one would be devastatingly bad for them. There's no point in consolidating their hardware if their audiences don't follow.

Point is they are saving much on develoment costs by ceasing parallel development on dissimilar architectures.
Question is also on game pricing, if Switch is Wii level prices rather than 3DS than each sale is more profitable.
They seem keen on licencing IP to allow 2nd party dev of concepts, aiming for higher quality, conducive to higher price.
I would also peg it at 60m as a marginal success if they can achieve higher profits/unit, 75m+ for solid success,
Yeah sure they will still exist at 40m or even 30m, but "success" is a higher bar than "survive".