How Much Does the Switch Need to Sell to be Considered a Success?

[mutantsushi]

spemanig said:

Darwinianevolution said:
60 million is my guess. It doesn't need to be a Wii-like success, but it does need to at least match the 3DS sales, now that they have all their eggs in one basket. High attach ratios and better software output will bring enough money to make them happy.

They're going from having two platforms to one. It kind of does have to be a Wii-like success at the absolute least. This gen has the Wii U and 3DS selling a combined 74m so far, and that's been acknowledged by Nintendo as being a collossal failure for them.

Going from 74m on two plaforms to 60m on only one would be devastatingly bad for them. There's no point in consolidating their hardware if their audiences don't follow.

Point is they are saving much on develoment costs by ceasing parallel development on dissimilar architectures.
Question is also on game pricing, if Switch is Wii level prices rather than 3DS than each sale is more profitable.
They seem keen on licencing IP to allow 2nd party dev of concepts, aiming for higher quality, conducive to higher price.
I would also peg it at 60m as a marginal success if they can achieve higher profits/unit, 75m+ for solid success,
Yeah sure they will still exist at 40m or even 30m, but "success" is a higher bar than "survive".