Imagine if you're a Nintendo shareholder or investor and this is the hardware shipment numbers you see in five years:

I didn't quite make it Wii U numbers for the Switch projections, but rather assumed a more GameCube-like sales projection.

If the Switch doesn't succeed and investors see a hardware division that is barely making them any money, with years of hardware shipments that are far below anything the company has ever seen since becoming a major player in the console market three decades ago, you can probably guess that they may want this underperforming division culled.

Now, Sega never was a major player with handhelds, with the Game Gear posting only modest numbers. They sustained two failed consoles in a row with nothing backing them up. They ended up abandoning hardware and going third-party. Since Nintendo is adopting an all-eggs-in-one-basket approach with a hybrid system, Nintendo's hardware sales will depend entirely on the Switch within a couple of years of launch. It will have no other platform to back it up like the 3DS backed up the Wii U.

I think if Nintendo wants to guarantee that they remain first-party, the Switch needs to sell at least 50-60 million units and make a nifty profit. It's certainly possible, especially since it'll have all of Nintendo's big franchises on one platform (imagine Pokemon with console-level production values... YUUUUGE), but it's by no means guaranteed. While Nintendo as a company will certainly survive the Switch being a flop like the Wii U was, I don't think it would bode well for their future as a console maker.

If they do go third-party, I think PlayStation and Xbox would be good homes for their franchises. Mobile would tarnish their future. The mobile market does not tend to support true console-like gaming experiences. Nintendo's first big mobile games were Pokemon Go, a relatively simplistic ARG, and Super Mario Run, an endless runner. The kind of games that the mobile market supports are not the kind of games most of us think of when we hear "Nintendo." Mobile will not support a big grand Zelda adventure, or a 3D Mario, or even a Mario Kart. Nintendo's biggest franchises were developed with console in mind, and they should remain on consoles. Regarldess of whether or not Nintendo remains first-party, they should always know who their fan base is, and that to retain that fan base they need to keep making console games.

I'm reasonably sure that we don't have any posts from the "NES days" saying people should go third party.

 Mario and Zelda did go 3rd party in the NES days though.

I'm reasonably sure that we don't have any posts from the "NES days" saying people should go third party.