The point is simple, PS4 OG and Slim are almost surely gonna be down YOY in November NPD. Last year sales were pretty damn strong thanks great bundles and big release, while this year it just has worse release and worse bundles, not much to say... price can be better than last year, but that's happen even in the others months of 2016, and withouth January, February, and May (Uncharted month) PS4 has always been flat / down , so no, this won't change this holidays, expecially considering last year the PS4 line up was just better.
So, for predict how will PS4 sells this NPD, we just need to predict how PS4 OG/Slim will be down YOY, and how will PRO sells. 300k? 400k? 500k? 1 million?
We have first week numbers for Japan and UK, and we know sales in UK for PRO were about 18% of the original launch back in 2013, and 21% in Japan. Both countries are close to 1/5 of the first PS4 week in 2013 then.
PS4 sold 1 million in North America (North America IS NOT USA) first week, 1/5 of that is 200k... But then i don't see PS4 having stock problem like PS4 in November 2013, so it won't stop selling after first week and is going to do fine in Black Friday.
Mayve in the last two weeks of November PS4 PRO can double first week numbers. I want to be optimist on PS4 PRO, while with the other two models i just don't see both sells as great as last year, i seriusly see no reason.
My guess:
PS4 family - 1.7 million
OG/Slim - 1.2 million
PRO - 500k