1.5 year
will outsell wii U by it second holiday

I could see it doing it in 2 years max if done right, but 1 year could be very tough unless it has an absolutely explosive holiday season, with a price drop and a brand new 3D Mario game launching for the holidays.

i hope it does amazing. We need to wait till january before making this kind of threads.

Thats sort of the point. 

3Ds sold 17.13m its first year.
Wii sold ~ 20m its first year.

NSwitch is a console that covers both markets. 

how can you predict this without knowing the pricepoint? having said that, I believe there is no chance in hell it will do it within 1 year

It will outsell WiiU's first year sure.

Oh, this is just puuure speculation/asumption. We dont know the price, we dont know much really, but everyone seems to have their own idea of what this console is/gonna be. 

In my opinion, the Switch is not very attractive to the average customer. You will likely be able to play Skyrim on Android / IOS too, so the only reason to buy it (for the average mass market casual gamer) is to be able to play Zelda since the Wii-U went out of production and there will be huge Wii-U shortages. Wii-U prices will explode (With the last units being sold out now and ceased production, the Wii-U hardware demand created by Zelda alone cannot be met) , even for used consoles so it will be cheaper to play Zelda on Switch.

14MM in year one?

Possible, sure anything is possible.

But we don't know how probable that is until we see the software. Wii, for instance, could have sold well over 30MM in its first year had there been stock. But that was solely due to the software it offered. If NS has a killer launch library and a good asking price of say $249, then yeah I think its certainly possible. At this point, I wouldn't bet on that though as there are no announced games or hardware price.

I think after 2 years is more likely.