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Forums - Nintendo - Emily Rogers Nintendo NX rumors: response without being overly cynical.

Captain_Yuri said:
zorg1000 said:

You're missing his point, he is saying that motion & touch controls existed before Wii/DS but noone used them in the same way as Nintendo did.

So the questions you are asking make no sense in relation to what he said.

Because I never said they didn't exist prior to the wii/DS because the technologies obviously did. My argument is that there is nothing that used it the same way that the wii/DS did. Yet based on the rumors, tablets that are out right now are able to do what the NX is able to do apart from play Nintendo games so what makes NX as unique as the wii/DS?

Wyrdness: motion and touch controls existed before Wii/DS but Nintendo had their own take on the concept.

You: what motion/touch control devices were like Wii/DS before they released?

He just said none existed then you proceeded to ask him to list ones that existed, thats what i mean by your questions making no sense.



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Captain_Yuri said:
Soundwave said:

Bigger phones have had an impact for sure, because they offer some of the benefits of a tablet. So that's definitely having an impact. 

Still the tablet market is bigger (far bigger) than what's left of the "traditional handheld market" which is basically like 10 million 3DS' a year, a big chunk of that coming from Japan and Vita ... well ... yeah. 

I think Nintendo made their decision after doing research on kids, and if you really open your eyes to what's happening with kids, like look around next time you are in an airport ... it's a fucking sobering thing here. 3DS/Vita aren't getting killed by tablet-like devices. The got killed, dragged for another 100 km, buried in a hole 100 feet deep, and left to rot for 2 years.

That's where we're at. I think Nintendo really made this decision like 2+ years ago, that's when they decided to make the deal with DeNA to make mobile apps, that is when the genesis of the NX hardware would be taking place ... I think they made the decision then that mobile gaming was something they had to accomodate rather than try to compete head on against, because they can't compete head on against mobile.

All a "4DS" would accomplish would be to sell less than the 3DS. NX *might* have a chance to sell more or hold even with 3DS if they can tap even 5% of the tablet market per year.  

Yea but the issue isn't that the handhelds are getting rekt by phones. The issue is that they are entering a market that is also getting rekt by phones that is more competitive than the handheld market.

Sure the tablet market is bigger but it is also filled with more competition and it is in decline. And Nintendo's research isn't exactly what I would call consistantly right. Otherwise the wiiU wouldn't have happened. 

All I am saying is, have two skus. One that is 4-5 inch that is cheaper while the other is 6.2 inch which is more expensive and see which one sells... Cause putting everything into a device that is entering a very competitive market that is also is decline is not a wise choice imo.

And as for your argument with the whole "Tablet is a bigger market." If we look at the shipments and who Nintendo can compete against and take market share from:

We know that they can't compete against Apple or Samsung. So most likely, they will be competing against the others whoes yearly shipments are around the same as the 3ds... Oh and remember that tablets in general are in decline so its even less this year and most likely even less when the NX actually comes out.

Eh, your own chart lists "Others" as shipping 99.1 million units in 2015 alone. "Others" means a lot of shitty Chinese tablets and no-name tablet makers ... that's a huge, huge market. 

The 3DS shipped 9 million last year. 

If Nintendo can get even the same marketshare at Huwaei, which isn't exactly Apple, and add in their usual portable/console Nintendo buyer, that's 6 million or so tablet folkes and probably another 6-7 Nintendo faithful types .... that's 12-14 million shipments a year ... that is a decent number for Nintendo. 

If they were to sell a "4DS", they would be selling only 6-7 million a year. 



zorg1000 said:
Captain_Yuri said:

Because I never said they didn't exist prior to the wii/DS because the technologies obviously did. My argument is that there is nothing that used it the same way that the wii/DS did. Yet based on the rumors, tablets that are out right now are able to do what the NX is able to do apart from play Nintendo games so what makes NX as unique as the wii/DS?

Wyrdness: motion and touch controls existed before Wii/DS but Nintendo had their own take on the concept.

You: what motion/touch control devices were like Wii/DS before they released?

He just said none existed then you proceeded to ask him to list ones that existed, thats what i mean by your questions making no sense.

If you read our entire discussion, he states that:

"Actually not true mate as the were devices that utilized their concepts before people were unsure of them because they felt they had no place in the market and that's what it comes down to, no one understood the new market because it hadn't taken off yet."

In the context of me saying the wii/DS are devices that no one saw before. He suggests that there were devices like the wii/DS before them since those devices utilized "their" (Which I am assuming is Nintendo) concepts. They weren't popular cause people were unsure of them.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8049869

But then I said, well the issue still is that there were no devices like wii/DS and I asked him what mass market device he is referring to...

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8049875

And then he responds with the technologies that the wii/DS used were nothing new. And said that I was wrong since I said there was nothing like the wii/DS. 

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8049918

So... What he is saying from my point of view is that people used the wii's and DS's concepts before because of:

"Actually not true mate as the were devices that utilized their concepts before people were unsure of them "

And when he said "Nintendo did their own take on it," I assumed he meant Nintendo games because of what he said previously. Possible miss communication or miss understanding somewhere tho.



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

Captain_Yuri said:
zorg1000 said:

You're missing his point, he is saying that motion & touch controls existed before Wii/DS but noone used them in the same way as Nintendo did.

So the questions you are asking make no sense in relation to what he said.

Because I never said they didn't exist prior to the wii/DS because the technologies obviously did. My argument is that there is nothing that used it the same way that the wii/DS did. Yet based on the rumors, tablets that are out right now are able to do what the NX is able to do apart from play Nintendo games so what makes NX as unique as the wii/DS?

The answer to that is easy -- no Nintendo doesn't have anything as unique as the Wii/DS. It's freaking hard to have something unique like that. Even Apple has not really had a hit new idea or concept since the iPad and that is what .... like 7-8 years ago? 

So no, NX is barring a miracle not going to be the second coming of the Wii/DS. They are in reality probably going to have to work harder than they've ever worked before to just match what the 3DS got, which was largely able to secure a decent userbase before mobile and tablets became too entrenched. 

That's really not the question though, the question really is of all the options available to Nintendo, they are all difficult paths. There is no easy path here for Nintendo, doing the same thing as the past would also likely get them killed. From the looks of it they choose to try and embrace mobile I think rather than try to fight it. I think they swallowed their pride in a big way when they made the decision to make mobile games and I think NX is basically a system designed in large part for a new generation of kids who don't give a shit about the 3DS or Wii U and is tailored more towards their needs. And this decision I think will change Nintendo forever, and I suspect it was something that was hotly debated within the halls of Nintendo. 

That's also why I think Nikkei's report is correct (and they have been mostly correct on everything Nintendo related they report even when Nintendo denies it). I expect Android apps on the NX, it'll just be through Nintendo's eShop and something tightly controlled by Nintendo and they will keep a 30% cut. 

Now we can debate the direction Nintendo should take, but I think Nintendo already made the decision and had these discussions ... 2 years ago. We are just realizing it now. 



Soundwave said:

Eh, your own chart lists "Others" as shipping 99.1 million units in 2015 alone. "Others" means a lot of shitty Chinese tablets and no-name tablet makers ... that's a huge, huge market. 

The 3DS shipped 9 million last year. 

If Nintendo can get even the same marketshare at Huwaei, which isn't exactly Apple, and add in their usual portable/console Nintendo buyer, that's 6 million or so tablet folkes and probably another 6-7 Nintendo faithful types .... that's 12-14 million shipments a year ... that is a decent number for Nintendo. 

If they were to sell a "4DS", they would be selling only 6-7 million a year. 

Don't be silly... The only thing those "Others" prove is how competitive the market is... If Companies like Apple, Samsung, Lenovo and Asus can't take market share away from them, I doubt Nintendo can. These are world wide shipments so those "Others" are probably in places where companies generally don't launch their devices or there are some reasons for those. Otherwise the top companies would be taking market share away from them instead of being down YoY.

And you do realize that getting the non-faithful types is the challenge because of the stiff competition?



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

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Soundwave said:
Captain_Yuri said:

Because I never said they didn't exist prior to the wii/DS because the technologies obviously did. My argument is that there is nothing that used it the same way that the wii/DS did. Yet based on the rumors, tablets that are out right now are able to do what the NX is able to do apart from play Nintendo games so what makes NX as unique as the wii/DS?

The answer to that is easy -- no Nintendo doesn't have anything as unique as the Wii/DS. It's freaking hard to have something unique like that. Even Apple has not really had a hit new idea or concept since the iPad and that is what .... like 7-8 years ago? 

So no, NX is barring a miracle not going to be the second coming of the Wii/DS. They are in reality probably going to have to work harder than they've ever worked before to just match what the 3DS got, which was largely able to secure a decent userbase before mobile and tablets became too entrenched. 

That's really not the question though, the question really is of all the options available to Nintendo, they are all difficult paths. There is no easy path here for Nintendo, doing the same thing as the past would also likely get them killed. From the looks of it they choose to try and embrace mobile I think rather than try to fight it. I think they swallowed their pride in a big way when they made the decision to make mobile games and I think NX is basically a system designed in large part for a new generation of kids who don't give a shit about the 3DS or Wii U and is tailored more towards their needs. And this decision I think will change Nintendo forever, and I suspect it was something that was hotly debated within the halls of Nintendo. 

That's also why I think Nikkei's report is correct (and they have been mostly correct on everything Nintendo related they report even when Nintendo denies it). I expect Android apps on the NX, it'll just be through Nintendo's eShop and something tightly controlled by Nintendo and they will keep a 30% cut. 

Now we can debate the direction Nintendo should take, but I think Nintendo already made the decision and had these discussions ... 2 years ago. We are just realizing it now. 

So... They are embracing mobile by going into the tablet market which is declining and has stiff competition? If the kids are so hyped about tablets, why are tablet sales going down year over year? 10% drop globally and 20% drop for ipad sales is huge... And Q1 2016 saw a drop as well.

And yea Nintendo made the decision 2 years ago but in reality, we don't know what that decision is. A few months ago, everyone was like zomg, its gonna be a home console and a handheld with shared library with AMD hardware. No one even thought they were going Tablet and Nvidia and we don't even know if that is true. But all I am saying is, if they are going this route, I would prefer/hope they have two skus with two different screen sizes and price points.

That way, they can venture into the Tablet space while keeping a foot in the handheld space for those of us that don't carry tablets.

Oh and just a disclaimer, I don't think the NX itself is gonna flop or anything regardless of Nintendo's decision. I am just trying to figure out what their logic is...



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

Captain_Yuri said:
Soundwave said:

The answer to that is easy -- no Nintendo doesn't have anything as unique as the Wii/DS. It's freaking hard to have something unique like that. Even Apple has not really had a hit new idea or concept since the iPad and that is what .... like 7-8 years ago? 

So no, NX is barring a miracle not going to be the second coming of the Wii/DS. They are in reality probably going to have to work harder than they've ever worked before to just match what the 3DS got, which was largely able to secure a decent userbase before mobile and tablets became too entrenched. 

That's really not the question though, the question really is of all the options available to Nintendo, they are all difficult paths. There is no easy path here for Nintendo, doing the same thing as the past would also likely get them killed. From the looks of it they choose to try and embrace mobile I think rather than try to fight it. I think they swallowed their pride in a big way when they made the decision to make mobile games and I think NX is basically a system designed in large part for a new generation of kids who don't give a shit about the 3DS or Wii U and is tailored more towards their needs. And this decision I think will change Nintendo forever, and I suspect it was something that was hotly debated within the halls of Nintendo. 

That's also why I think Nikkei's report is correct (and they have been mostly correct on everything Nintendo related they report even when Nintendo denies it). I expect Android apps on the NX, it'll just be through Nintendo's eShop and something tightly controlled by Nintendo and they will keep a 30% cut. 

Now we can debate the direction Nintendo should take, but I think Nintendo already made the decision and had these discussions ... 2 years ago. We are just realizing it now. 

So... They are embracing mobile by going into the tablet market which is declining and has stiff competition? If the kids are so hyped about tablets, why are tablet sales going down year over year? 10% drop globally and 20% drop for ipad sales is huge... And Q1 2016 saw a drop as well.

And yea Nintendo made the decision 2 years ago but in reality, we don't know what that decision is. A few months ago, everyone was like zomg, its gonna be a home console and a handheld with shared library with AMD hardware. No one even thought they were going Tablet and Nvidia and we don't even know if that is true. But all I am saying is, if they are going this route, I would prefer/hope they have two skus with two different screen sizes and price points.

That way, they can venture into the Tablet space while keeping a foot in the handheld space for those of us that don't carry tablets.

Oh and just a disclaimer, I don't think the NX itself is gonna flop or anything regardless of Nintendo's decision. I am just trying to figure out what their logic is...

Tablets evening out in sales was naturally going to happen, you don't need a new tablet every year and bigger phones are taking away the need for tablets for some. 

Tablets are still the defacto computing device for a lot of people and I know kids cannot get enough of them. Every time I have my nieces and nephews comes over the first they want is the iPad, not the two 3DS' I have or any of my game consoles (yup that goes for you too Sony and MS). 

Nintendo's logic is I think they did extensive market research on kids and realized that today's 6/7/8 year old that normally would have a Nintendo portable as their first game machine (this is some thing that's been money for Nintendo since 1989) wasn't happening anymore. Today's 6/7/8 year old's first game machine is not a DS/3DS/Game Boy or even a PSP/Vita ... it's a tablet. DS means nothing ... *nothing* to these kids, they weren't even born when the DS was in its hey day. 

And I think that scared the shit out of Nintendo, more than any Playstation or XBox or Genesis has ever done. 

That Christmas where they had Pokemon X/Y for the 3DS and even made a budget "kids model" 2DS without the 3D even so kids couldn't complain ... when the 3DS didn't go through the roof in sales ... I have a feeling that devastated Nintendo internally. They really bet the farm hard on that and threw everything at the 3DS that they could to that point and instead of sales increasing, their shipments were actually going south. I think holiday 2013 was a sobering moment for Nintendo, I remember Iwata even saying they were distressed with sales in the West (didn't help that the Wii U also flopped that holiday). 



Soundwave said:
Captain_Yuri said:

So... They are embracing mobile by going into the tablet market which is declining and has stiff competition? If the kids are so hyped about tablets, why are tablet sales going down year over year? 10% drop globally and 20% drop for ipad sales is huge... And Q1 2016 saw a drop as well.

And yea Nintendo made the decision 2 years ago but in reality, we don't know what that decision is. A few months ago, everyone was like zomg, its gonna be a home console and a handheld with shared library with AMD hardware. No one even thought they were going Tablet and Nvidia and we don't even know if that is true. But all I am saying is, if they are going this route, I would prefer/hope they have two skus with two different screen sizes and price points.

That way, they can venture into the Tablet space while keeping a foot in the handheld space for those of us that don't carry tablets.

Oh and just a disclaimer, I don't think the NX itself is gonna flop or anything regardless of Nintendo's decision. I am just trying to figure out what their logic is...

Tablets evening out in sales was naturally going to happen, you don't need a new tablet every year and bigger phones are taking away the need for tablets for some. 

Tablets are still the defacto computing device for a lot of people and I know kids cannot get enough of them. Every time I have my nieces and nephews comes over the first they want is the iPad, not the two 3DS' I have or any of my game consoles (yup that goes for you too Sony and MS). 

Nintendo's logic is I think they did extensive market research on kids and realized that today's 6/7/8 year old that normally would have a Nintendo portable as their first game machine (this is some thing that's been money for Nintendo since 1989) wasn't happening anymore. Today's 6/7/8 year old's first game machine is not a DS/3DS/Game Boy or even a PSP/Vita ... it's a tablet. DS means nothing ... *nothing* to these kids, they weren't even born when the DS was in its hey day. 

And I think that scared the shit out of Nintendo, more than any Playstation or XBox or Genesis has ever done. 

That Christmas where they had Pokemon X/Y for the 3DS and even made a budget "kids model" 2DS without the 3D even so kids couldn't complain ... when the 3DS didn't go through the roof in sales ... I have a feeling that devastated Nintendo internally. They really bet the farm hard on that and threw everything at the 3DS that they could to that point and instead of sales increasing, their shipments were actually going south. 

Evening out in sales? How big of a drop does it have to be in order to even out? It was going down in 2014, it went down in 2015, its still going down in 2016... 

I am sure you have seen plenty of ipads and even my sister has an ipad. But an ipad 2 and she doesn't care about upgrading. The issue with her ipad 2 is that she can't bring it to school because she has to worry about it all the time and it is a pretty big device to carry around. She goes to highschool, not collage or something. What she does bring though is her phone. Why? Cause its easy to carry around and keep track... I have seen plenty of kids with tablets but I have seen plenty more with phones.

While I agree that the kids who would buy 3ds aren't buying 3ds. Considering the sales numbers, they aren't buying tablets either. Again, looking at overall sales is just silly because the % of each company is just so small apart from the big two. 10 million ipads down YoY with no indication of stopping doesn't exactly scream something that people want and that's Apple's device. And you also have 10% total sales down as well.. The nintendo fans will buy a Nintendo device no matter what but the casuals/kids are the issue. So less and less people buying tablets clearly means the market is losing interest.

So if Nintendo's research as led them to this, I hope they are looking at the sales and are thinking, maybe we should have a smaller and cheaper device as well.



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

Captain_Yuri said:
Soundwave said:

Tablets evening out in sales was naturally going to happen, you don't need a new tablet every year and bigger phones are taking away the need for tablets for some. 

Tablets are still the defacto computing device for a lot of people and I know kids cannot get enough of them. Every time I have my nieces and nephews comes over the first they want is the iPad, not the two 3DS' I have or any of my game consoles (yup that goes for you too Sony and MS). 

Nintendo's logic is I think they did extensive market research on kids and realized that today's 6/7/8 year old that normally would have a Nintendo portable as their first game machine (this is some thing that's been money for Nintendo since 1989) wasn't happening anymore. Today's 6/7/8 year old's first game machine is not a DS/3DS/Game Boy or even a PSP/Vita ... it's a tablet. DS means nothing ... *nothing* to these kids, they weren't even born when the DS was in its hey day. 

And I think that scared the shit out of Nintendo, more than any Playstation or XBox or Genesis has ever done. 

That Christmas where they had Pokemon X/Y for the 3DS and even made a budget "kids model" 2DS without the 3D even so kids couldn't complain ... when the 3DS didn't go through the roof in sales ... I have a feeling that devastated Nintendo internally. They really bet the farm hard on that and threw everything at the 3DS that they could to that point and instead of sales increasing, their shipments were actually going south. 

Evening out in sales? How big of a drop does it have to be in order to even out? It was going down in 2014, it went down in 2015, its still going down in 2016... 

I am sure you have seen plenty of ipads and even my sister has an ipad. But an ipad 2 and she doesn't care about upgrading. The issue with her ipad 2 is that she can't bring it to school because she has to worry about it all the time and it is a pretty big device to carry around. She goes to highschool, not collage or something. What she does bring though is her phone. Why? Cause its easy to carry around and keep track... I have seen plenty of kids with tablets but I have seen plenty more with phones.

While I agree that the kids who would buy 3ds aren't buying 3ds. Considering the sales numbers, they aren't buying tablets either. Again, looking at overall sales is just silly because the % of each company is just so small apart from the big two. 10 million ipads down YoY with no indication of stopping doesn't exactly scream something that people want and that's Apple's device. And you also have 10% total sales down as well.. The nintendo fans will buy a Nintendo device no matter what but the casuals/kids are the issue. So less and less people buying tablets clearly means the market is losing interest.

So if Nintendo's research as led them to this, I hope they are looking at the sales and are thinking, maybe we should have a smaller and cheaper device as well.

I think they've tried everything with the 3DS ... small ... big ... even non 3D 3DS (lol) ... expensive ... mid-priced ... dirt cheap. 

The world has changed into a smart device world ... I think Nintendo making a "smart Nintendo" platform that maybe can run Android apps (which Nintendo can then make money off of rather than Apple or Google getting all that money) in this environment makes as much sense as anything. 

I'm not saying this will work ... it could easily fail. So could doing the same thing as they have been the last 5-6 years. For Nintendo there's no easy answers. 

That kinda happens when you make a string of stupid decisions on your console side for 20 years straight too. Aside from the Wiimote gamble, which paid off huge for a few years (mind you this is also an idea that Nintendo didn't invent, they bought the concept from an American guy who tried to sell it to Sony/MS first, and even then many Nintendo execs were against buying the tech, lol), the haven't been able to make a console without several huge errors since the Super NES. 

So, the one time in 20 years the portable division could use some help from the console side, and the console side is home, drunk, passed out and having pissed its pants. 

Kids ARE getting tablets as their first gaming device. That is a problem for Nintendo, the days of "Oh Little Johnny is turning 7 this year, we need to buy him his first Game Boy/DS/3DS" ... that is just a faded memory now. These kids take to smart devices like fish to water, it's their first introduction to gaming, and that's a huge, huge problem for Nintendo. 

Like I said, look the next time you are in an airport. Seeing like 50 kids on a tablet, sometimes 2-3 tablets in one family alone, and zero on 3DS or Vita sends the reality of the situation home real freaking fast. 



Soundwave said:
Captain_Yuri said:

I think they've tried everything with the 3DS ... small ... big ... even non 3D 3DS (lol) ... expensive ... mid-priced ... dirt cheap. 

The world has changed into a smart device world ... I think Nintendo making a "smart Nintendo" platform that maybe can run Android apps (which Nintendo can then make money off of rather than Apple or Google getting all that money) in this environment makes as much sense as anything. 

I'm not saying this will work ... it could easily fail. So could doing the same thing as they have been the last 5-6 years. For Nintendo there's no easy answers. 

That kinda happens when you make a string of stupid decisions on your console side for 20 years straight too. Aside from the Wiimote gamble, which paid off huge for a few years (mind you this is also an idea that Nintendo didn't invent, they bought the concept from an American guy who tried to sell it to Sony/MS first, and even then many Nintendo execs were against buying the tech, lol), the haven't been able to make a console without several huge errors since the Super NES. 

So, the one time in 20 years the portable division could use some help from the console side, and the console side is home, drunk, passed out and having pissed its pants. 

That is the dream. If NX can also have a playstore as well as a eshop or whatever, would be craycray.



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850